Aside from the Super Bowl, the men's basketball tournament is the most-wagered-on event in the United States annually. Bettors of all kinds will be doing their best to predict outcomes, but the unpredictability of the tournament can be challenging for even the sharpest bettors.
While millions of people across the country will be filling out brackets hoping to get lucky by picking the winner, there are still plenty of other ways to enjoy wagering on the tournament, even for the most inexperienced bettors. Here are some tips and tactics to consider when placing a calculated wager on the Big Dance.
Focus on spreads, not seeds
Oddsmakers are very good at their jobs. So, whenever you see a lower-seeded team favored over a higher-seeded team, it's a sign of which team is more likely to win the game. In last year's first round, 12th-seeded Colorado State, the Mountain West tournament champion, was a 1.5-point favorite over No. 5 seed Memphis. The Rams went on to win the game and cover the spread in a 78-70 final. In 2024, 11th-seeded Oregon was favored by 2.5 points over No. 6 seed South Carolina in the first round and covered easily, winning by 15.
Oddsmakers don't care about the number next to a team's name to determine the spread, so when they make a lower-seeded team a favorite, it's something to pay attention to. Case in point: Since 2008, teams seeded 10th or worse that were favored by two points or more in the first round are 14-2 straight up.
Cut the game in half
The top three seeds in each region are often huge favorites over their first-round opponents. These numbers are difficult to cover in general, but many times these top seeds sprint out to huge leads and then pull up in the second half for various reasons. Some of them are just slowing the game down and eating up more clock so there are fewer opportunities for the opponent to get back into the game. Sometimes, they simply decide to keep their starters fresh by resting them with a big lead, since they have another game to play two days later.
Last year, eventual national champion and No. 1 seed Florida was a 28.5-point favorite against 16th-seeded Norfolk State. The Gators won easily 95-69 but failed to cover the full-game spread. However, they led by 21 at halftime, covering the first-half spread of 17.5 points. In this case, a Florida first-half bet was a winner, but the full-game bet was a loser.
The same logic applies to the underdogs. Most 15- and 16-seeds are huge underdogs but can catch superior teams off guard because of a lack of familiarity, especially early in the game. But over the course of a full 40-minute game, the better team pulls away. Such was the case in last year's first-round matchup between No. 2 seed Michigan State and 15th-seeded Bryant. The full-game spread was Michigan State minus-17.5. Bryant hung with the Spartans early and trailed by only 5 points at halftime, but it lost the game 87-62, failing to cover the full-game spread.
Look at alternate markets
The spread isn't the only way to wager on a game. There is also the total of the game, which is the combined points by both teams to go over or under a certain number. Last year, No. 1 seed Houston opened up against 16-seed SIU Edwardsville. The Cougars were a 28.5-point favorite. That's a daunting number to lay in any college basketball game. The total for the game was 127.5. Houston played the sixth-slowest pace of any team in the country last season while also boasting the top defense in the nation. While Houston won the game 78-40 and covered that intimidating spread number, the Cougars' slow pace and staunch defense kept the total under 127.5 points, with the teams combining for 118 points.
Individual team totals are another way to go. Before each game, each team has a total number of points to either go over or under. You can look at a team's pace and/or overall scoring average to help determine where the advantages might be. A prime example of that was last year's Clemson-McNeese first-round matchup. The Tigers were the 5-seed and the Cowboys were the 12-seed. The total for the game was 136.5. Clemson's team total was 72.5 points and McNeese was 64.5. Clemson's pace ranked in the bottom 40 in the country, but it entered the game averaging 76.3 points per game for the season. McNeese pulled off the upset, 69-67. Clemson stayed under its team total while the Cowboys went over theirs. The spread and the total of the game had no bearing on whether you won or lost the bet.
Money-line rollover
Betting the money line is a simple, straightforward wager. You're betting on a team to win the game. That's the easy part. The difficult part is that the "juice" or "vigorish" (also known as "the vig") is typically larger on favorites than placing a straight spread or total wager. The vig can be described as a tax you pay on a wager. Most typical straight wagers have a minus-110 vig, or a 10% fee to place the wager. With the money line, it is a number correlated to the spread of the game that can vary based on the size of the favorite. On an underdog, there is typically no vig on a money-line bet. You end up winning more than you wagered for betting on the team less likely to win. Instead of a minus (-) sign that you see next to the money line for the favorite, there is plus (+) sign next to the underdog.
So, what does "rollover" mean? Rolling over the money line is simply taking a team to win on the money line in one game and then taking all those winnings and placing them on the same team to win again in their next game. This approach can be useful, as there are some NCAA tournament trends that can back this as profitable. For example, in 12 of the past 14 tourneys, at least one team to win its "First Four" game went on to win its game in the round of 64 as well. In 2024, Colorado played Boise State in the First Four. Colorado was around a minus-155 favorite on the money line and won the game 60-53, also covering the 3.5-point spread. In the round of 64, the 10th-seeded Buffaloes were a 1.5-point favorite against No. 7 seed Florida and were around minus-115 on the money line. If you placed two individual wagers on Colorado against the spread, you'd have less money than if you rolled over your winnings in placing those back-to-back money-line wagers on the Buffaloes. This type of wagering can be especially profitable on lower-seeded teams that pull off two consecutive upsets and make it to the Sweet 16. In fact, a double-digit seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 in each of the past 17 tournaments and 38 of 40 overall. Last year, 10th-seeded Arkansas was the only team to pull off that feat. The key, of course, is identifying a double-digit seed that will do that this year.
Short-term futures
Another way to bet before the tournament tips off is by placing a "futures" bet on how far a team will advance. Separate from their first-round matchup, each of 68 teams will have a market to win it all, make the Final Four, Elite 8 or Sweet 16. Depending on a team's draw in the tournament, some paths will be easier than others. So, wagering on a team to make the Sweet 16 is the same bet as winning their first two games (except for those who play in the First Four), but it might present better odds than the money-line rollover. This is also a great value bet on lower-seeded teams, because the odds will be better. Once again looking at trends, at least one 11-seed has made the Sweet 16 in eight of the past 11 tournaments, and multiple 11-seeds have reached the second weekend in five of the past 14 tourneys.
Live betting
This is a little more of a skilled bet, but it's a great way to take advantage of in-game wagering. Live lines are actively shifting within the game itself, depending on the score and time remaining. The example I gave earlier regarding last year's Michigan State-Bryant game would apply here. When the favored Spartans trailed the Bulldogs late in the first half, the live line would have come down from the pre-tip 17.5 points to something closer to half that number. That would have given you a much better number for Michigan State to cover for the full game. And if you believed the Spartans would return to the form that made them a worthy 2-seed, this would have been an advantageous position to have to lay only 9 or 10 points for the game. Again, Michigan State won the game by 25, but the extra wiggle room on the live spread would have made the final minutes of that game considerably less stressful to win the bet.
