Week 1 of the 2026 college football season doesn't get much bigger than this one. Louisville is my longer-odds pick to win the ACC, and Ole Miss is my long shot to crash the playoff and make a real run at a title. The two match up Saturday night at Nissan Stadium, and it should give an idea about how accuracy of those predictions.
Ole Miss put QB Trinidad Chambliss and RB Kewan Lacy on the Las Vegas Sphere for a promo this week. When you go that big, you better back it up on the field. Two offenses that can pound the football, a proven Heisman-caliber arm in Chambliss and a neutral-site prime-time stage to make a statement.
If these two offenses run like their backfield suggests, we could be in for a thrill.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Ole Miss vs. Louisville
Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Line: Ole Miss -6.5, O/U 55.5
Money line: Ole Miss (-278), Louisville (+225)
Over/Under: 55.5 (O -108, U -112)
Louisville: The explosive run game versus everything else
Headed into Week 1, this offense is a genuine puzzle. On one hand, you've got a backfield that can flat out hurt you with Isaac Brown, Keyjuan Brown and Braxton Jennings, with both Browns grading top five among ACC running backs last year. Keyjuan forced a missed tackle on 37% of his carries while averaging 5.14 yards after contact per attempt. That's legit tackle-breaking ability. The ground game has no questions.
Returning all top players in the backfield leaves the DNA of the Cardinals offense intact. Everything around it is a question mark. Louisville has a new quarterback in Ohio State transfer Lincoln Kienholz, who comes in with just 21 career completions under his belt, and no returning production at receiver -- all of the top four guys from last year are gone.
And almost the entire starting five on the offensive line is brand new and will be replacing a group that showed a real decline in sacks allowed and tackles for loss allowed year-over-year. This is a rebuild with a group that was already sliding, with a new position coach on top of it, and starting left tackle Anwar O'Neal will be sidelined the first few games because of an injury. So, the starting five is already having to be reworked.
Put it all together, and you've got a team that can rip off chunk runs and steal momentum, but the machinery to sustain drives and protect the rookie in this offense quarterback will be tested. That's boom-or-bust chaos that can show up on the scoreboard.
Ole Miss: An offense playing above its defense
The Rebels have almost the opposite problem, except their strength is even scarier. Chambliss and Lacy are both back, forming a trusted duo. Chambliss went into a College Football Playoff quarterfinal against Georgia and threw for 362 yards, two touchdowns and zero picks in a game his team won outright. That's not a guy who's going to blink against an ACC defense that lost its top top three defensive tackles. Lacy had the third-most rushing yards in the country, so these two can pack a punch.
The Ole Miss defense lost real production at linebacker, in the secondary, and their best pass rusher, Princewill Umanmielen, is also gone. We've already seen the cracks. Arkansas ran for nearly six yards per carry against this group, and Miami's Mark Fletcher Jr. put up 133 yards on them, too.
Ole Miss has an offense that can hang points on anybody, sitting next to a defense that isn't equipped to keep the other team off the board.
Prediction: OVER 55.5 (-108)
The blueprint for Louisville's defense getting exposed is through the air, as witnessed last season when they allowed 300-plus passing yards against Cal and SMU. Neither of those quarterbacks were playing at a Chambliss level. That same defense is now missing parts. If lesser arms could do that damage, this is a bad spot for the Cardinals.
Then there's Kienholz, anticipated to be a real running threat behind center. It's a small sample size, but he has shown mobile upside and that he's capable of scoring on his own at the goal line. That wrinkle only adds scoring opportunities, independent of how the rebuilt offensive line holds up.
Louisville scored on 90% of its red zone trips last season, which is why I also lean to the Cardinals covering the +6.5 game spread, but Ole Miss wasn't far behind at 86%, giving me more confidence in the total on a neutral field. Both offenses are automatic once they get inside the 20, so when either team sustains drive, that's points.
