The surprising 2-1 Cleveland Browns host the (maybe not so surprising, but still notable) 2-1 Pittsburgh Steelers on "Thursday Night Football" in a matchup I broke down in depth in my column earlier this week. I love the Steelers' ability to get to heavy personnel and run a variety of concepts, and perennially underrated back Jaylen Warren is seeing the field well behind his retooled offensive line. New starting right guard Brock Hoffman and rookie right tackle Max Iheanachor give the Steelers a five-across that can hang with anyone.
But the Browns have a fast and aggressive front featuring second-year defensive tackle Mason Graham, free agent linebacker Quincy Williams and trade acquisition Jared Verse. Cleveland's offense has been nothing special, but the defense can create short fields and keep games close. Against an immobile quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, the pass rush has a chance to really shine.
Significant injuries in this game include cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who may try to go despite a broken wrist. His absence would dramatically impact the Steelers' pass rush and run defense approach, as they've been playing Ramsey in the box as part of their disguised looks. Browns center Elgton Jenkins looks unlikely to go, which is a particularly big deal against a Steelers defensive tackle room loaded with waves of talent (Cameron Heyward, Keeanu Benton, Derrick Harmon and Yahya Black). Starting guard Teven Jenkins did not practice Monday but was limited Tuesday, which is a good sign for his availability. The status of Joey Porter Jr., the Steelers' star corner in need of a new contract, is as always uncertain. (Editor's note: The Steelers on Wednesday night agreed to trade Porter to the Cowboys.)
Betting outlook
The Steelers offense had a peak day against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3, but they still bring into this contest a bottom-10 offense by success rate (29th), EPA per play (30th) and points per drive (29th). The Cleveland offense has been a little better, but the Browns have played easier defenses and remain bottom 10 in all three metrics. It is hard to trust either unit to move the football consistently, though both defenses have been liable to surrendering explosive plays. This does not feel like a night to take player prop overs, but some longest reception or rush props may be in play as one-offs.
The Steelers are 2.5-point road favorites with heavy juice, which is appropriate given their advantages in the offensive trenches and at quarterback. If this is, as expected, a low-scoring game (total of 38.5), it's fair to side with the Steelers to grind out more positive runs and with Rodgers to avoid the backbreaking turnover that may swing this one.
The pick: UNDER 38.5 total points (-115)
Without turnovers and short fields, it's hard to see many touchdown drives in this game. Neither offense is consistent enough down-to-down to turn red zone appearances into seven points, and they'll have to rely on explosives to hit paydirt. I also expect a fast clock, with the Steelers leaning on their running game against a penetration-heavy Browns front and the Browns doing the same to protect their weaker offensive line from dealing with the Steelers' group in pass protection.
Notable player props, bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Quinshon Judkins rushing attempts OVER (-112)
Eric Moody: Judkins finished with 18 carries last week against the Carolina Panthers. The Steelers have allowed the eighth-fewest passing yards per game this season, which could push Cleveland to lean more heavily on the run. The efficiency may not be there for Judkins, but the volume should be.
KC Concepcion 5+ receptions (+147)
Solak: Concepcion is only the ninth receiver in the last 26 seasons to have at least 20 targets and under 80 receiving yards through the first three weeks of a season. He is a high-volume player (95% route share last week!) who has yet to have a high-volume day because of quarterbacking failures. His role is far, far too juicy to not take the over of 4.5 receptions at +147. Todd Monken clearly wants to get Concepcion the football, and with Deshaun Watson struggling to do so, I'm anticipating that Monken will begin manufacturing easier touches for the exciting rookie receiver.
Harold Fannin Jr. receiving yards OVER 40.5 (-111)
Moody: Fannin has seen at least six targets in his past two games and cleared this line in both. Watson's ability to extend plays helps, because when things break down, he has shown a tendency to look Fannin's way. Pittsburgh has defended tight ends well, but its zone-heavy scheme should give Fannin chances to settle into open areas underneath and over the middle.
