This was supposed to be the Micah Parsons revenge game. Instead, we'll have to settle for Kenny Clark and Rashan Gary. The Packers and the Cowboys face off in a season-defining game for both squads, as the 2-3 Cowboys still have a great shot of winning the NFC East and the 3-2 Packers need to stay apace in a furious NFC North.
The Packers' pass protection issues that defined their first few weeks of the season have seemingly been healed -- Love has faced only a 33% pressure rate over the past two games, whereas it was 42% in the first three contests. More and more play-action has helped slow down the pass rush and create opportunities for big downfield throws. Expect to see Love attack a banged-up safety group in Dallas, though the debut game of a fully available Joey Porter Jr. might change the Cowboys' defense some.
When Dallas has the football, watch quarterback Dak Prescott against the blitz. The Packers are blitzing at a 33% clip -- the highest a Jonathan Gannon-led defense has ever hit -- but Prescott tends to shred the blitz. He's 10th in success rate and in completion percentage against the blitz, and Dallas' line (with the return of Tyler Smith from IR) is as good as any group.
The Packers have played only two non-backup QBs through five weeks -- Geno Smith in the rain and Michael Penix Jr. in a game the Falcons dominated on offense. This will be, by far, the biggest test for the Packers' pass defense.
Betting outlook
The total at 53.5 is tied for the highest of the day but deservedly so. The Packers score in flurries with their big passing offense -- and when they don't convert, they punt quick. With two extremely high pass rates -- the Cowboys are first in designed pass percentage, and the Packers are third -- the ball should go flying around the yard. I'm always disinclined to take a pregame total as high as 53, and it's more likely I look for live overs in the first half if we see a low-scoring start.
A game with high play counts does lend itself to receptions and rush attempts over yardage totals, especially on the Cowboys side -- the Packers have too many quick drives with big plays or three-and-outs.
I lean to the Dallas side of this contest because I'm not convinced the Packers' offensive line really is fixed, and the long week after an embarrassing Thursday night loss to Jalon Daniels and the Buccaneers brings with it some extra motivation. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer said this week that there would be personnel changes, and a new defensive mind (Mike Pettine) has been added to the staff to help the coaching operation. If Dallas' defense is above "unmitigated disaster," it has the offense to hang with Green Bay and exploit its lack of running game.
Notable player props, bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Dal ML (-112), Dak Prescott 24-plus completions (-127)
Ben Solak: Dallas moneyline is my preferred side here, and the line has been moving that way all week. At -112, I still like it, but I wouldn't go higher than -115. The Packers are too one dimensional on offense, and I don't believe in the defense given the soft schedule of opponents thus far.
Prescott has a high completion percentage player against blitzes, which the Packers are sending 33% of the time. The Cowboys and Packers play at a fast pace, and in a close game, it's likely the Cowboys will be passing for almost all four quarters. Good spot for a high volume day for Dak.
Jordan Love passing yards OVER 271.5 (-110)
Pamela Maldonado: Love gets a Dallas defense that struggles to pressure quarterbacks and allows 8.3 yards per pass attempt. Green Bay has helped Love by using extra tight ends to block, giving him time to find Christian Watson and Matthew Golden downfield, leading him to average about 37 attempts per game, so the opportunity is there. Dallas also allows opponents to convert more than half their third downs, giving Love chances to keep drives going. His accuracy hasn't been consistent, but this matchup offers both easier completions and big-play opportunities to get him beyond this number.
Savion Williams to score TD +850
Ben Solak: Williams was just activated off IR and is a RB/WR hybrid player who gets designed plays. If Matt LaFleur has any short-yardage calls for him -- and he certainly does -- then they've been waiting in the pocket for five weeks. In a game with a 53.5 total, the implied volume of touchdowns gives long-shot bets a bit more juice.
