Kimi Antonelli took another big step towards his first world title after outscoring his two closest championship rivals, George Russell and Lewis Hamilton, at the Singapore Grand Prix.
The 20-year-old, who has the potential to set a new record for the youngest Formula 1 champion this year, now leads Mercedes teammate Russell by 102 points in the standings with a maximum of 150 points still up for grabs.
The substantial lead means he could be crowned champion as early as Oct. 24 at the U.S. Grand Prix in Austin, but the maths around that calculation are slightly complicated by question marks over the final two races of the season. The grands prix in Qatar and Abu Dhabi are currently scheduled to go ahead on Nov. 29 and Dec. 6, but escalations in the war between the United States and Iran have the potential to force the cancellation of both rounds.
F1 has put a contingency plan in place to hold a single round at Imola if Qatar and Abu Dhabi are cancelled, but doing so would cut the championship short by one round and mean only 125 points are available to any single driver before the end of the year. Such a scenario would change the maths around the championship fight, making it easier for Antonelli to be crowned champion in Austin.
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Alongside Russell and Hamilton, Max Verstappen, Charles Leclerc and Lando Norris are still mathematically in contention for this year's championship, although the incredibly slim hopes of Leclerc and Norris would be snuffed out entirely by the cancellation of the races in the Middle East.
What does Antonelli need to do to be crowned champion in Austin?
Assuming the final two races go ahead as planned, Antonelli's chances of clinching the title in Austin remain relatively slim. The Mercedes driver would need to win in Texas, with his teammate Russell finishing ninth or lower and Hamilton finishing fifth or lower.
Such a scenario would put Antonelli 125 points ahead of Russell with 125 points remaining, but even if Antonelli failed to score another point and Russell won all the remaining rounds after Austin, Antonelli would still be crowned champion on countback of race victories (by that stage Antonelli would be on nine and Russell on three with five races remaining).
If the championship is shortened by the season ending in Imola rather than Abu Dhabi, Antonelli would only need to leave Austin with a lead of 100 points over his rivals.
Such a scenario would result in the following permutations:
If Antonelli wins in Austin he would be crowned champion regardless of where the others finish.
If Antonelli finishes second, he would be crowned champion if Russell doesn't win the race.
If Antonelli finishes third, he would be crowned champion if Russell finishes off the podium.
If Antonelli finishes fourth, he would be crowned champion if Russell finishes behind him and Hamilton does not win the race.
If Antonelli finishes fifth, he would be crowned champion if Russell finishes fourth or lower and Hamilton does not win the race.
If Antonelli finishes sixth, he would be crowned champion if Russell finishes fifth or lower and Hamilton does not win the race.
If Antonelli finishes seventh, he would be crowned champion if Russell finishes sixth or lower and Hamilton does not finish in the top two.
If Antonelli finishes eighth, he would be crowned champion if Russell finishes seventh or lower, Hamilton does not finish in the top two and Verstappen does not win the race.
If Antonelli finishes ninth, he would be crowned champion if Russell finishes eighth or lower, Hamilton does not finish in the top three and Verstappen does not win the race.
If Antonelli finishes tenth, he would be crowned champion if Russell finishes ninth or lower, Hamilton does not finish in the top three and Verstappen does not win the race.
If Antonelli fails to score, he would be crowned champion if Russell finishes ninth or lower, Hamilton finishes fifth or lower and Verstappen does not win the race.
What's the minimum Antonelli needs to do be crowned champion?
Another way to look at the championship is the minimum amount of points Antonelli needs to score over the remaining rounds to secure the title regardless of what other drivers achieve. Assuming Qatar and Abu Dhabi go ahead, he needs 49 points over the remaining rounds, which could be achieved with as little as five sixth place finishes and one fifth place finish over the rest of the season.
If only five races remain, Antonelli would need just 24 points to secure the title, which would be attainable with two seventh place finishes and three eighth place finishes at the remaining rounds.
