Latest topsecretdailynotesfile

Jul 2, 2026, 08:44 AM ET

TODAY

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W%: The individual starting pitcher's win probability using ESPN projections. IP: Projected innings pitched. H+BB: Projected hits plus walks allowed. ER: Projected earned runs allowed. K: Projected strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
14.9	Jacob Misiorowski	R	CIN	99.3%	47%	6.0	6.8	2.0	7.3
12.4	Bryce Miller	R	LAA	76.7%	33%	5.4	5.8	2.0	5.7
11.5	Nathan Eovaldi	R	DET	88.1%	38%	6.2	7.4	3.0	6.3
11.3	Chase Burns	R	@MIL	97.7%	21%	5.8	7.1	2.7	6.7
10.6	Framber Valdez	L	@TEX	79.6%	37%	5.9	7.5	2.8	5.8
10.2	Roki Sasaki	R	SD	29.8%	32%	5.5	6.9	2.4	5.2
9.6	Ian Seymour	L	@KC	13.9%	35%	5.2	6.2	2.4	5.0
9.0	Walbert Urena	R	@SEA	17.1%	23%	5.1	6.6	2.0	4.5
8.6	Alan Rangel	R	PIT	1.5%	28%	5.0	6.3	2.6	4.9
8.3	Slade Cecconi	R	CWS	11.3%	29%	5.5	7.3	2.9	4.9
7.9	Davis Martin	R	@CLE	87.6%	29%	5.2	7.2	2.7	4.7
7.4	Hurston Waldrep	R	STL	3.1%	30%	5.0	7.0	2.6	4.5
6.9	Randy Vasquez	R	@LAD	18.9%	29%	5.2	7.2	2.7	3.9
6.6	Jared Jones	R	@PHI	9.6%	8%	4.1	5.3	2.1	4.3
6.1	Dustin May	R	@ATL	26.1%	12%	4.4	5.9	2.4	4.1
4.4	Stephen Kolek	R	TB	10.2%	12%	4.4	6.4	2.7	3.3
1.7	Ryan Gusto	R	@COL	0.2%	24%	4.6	7.3	4.7	4.4
-2.2	Michael Lorenzen	R	MIA	0.9%	22%	5.1	9.2	6.3	4.7

TOMORROW

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
14.4	Dylan Cease	R	@SEA	98.7%	38%	6.4	7.8	2.4	7.7
13.0	Foster Griffin	L	PIT	71.3%	35%	5.8	6.2	2.2	6.1
13.0	Shohei Ohtani	R	SD	99.8%	32%	5.7	6.3	1.9	6.0
11.2	Luis Castillo	R	TOR	50.0%	33%	5.7	6.6	2.3	5.1
10.9	Spencer Arrighetti	R	TB	32.7%	34%	5.7	7.4	2.5	6.0
10.6	Gerrit Cole	R	MIN	85.7%	39%	5.7	7.0	2.7	5.5
10.4	Michael King	R	@LAD	80.7%	32%	5.5	6.9	2.3	5.4
10.1	Anthony Kay	L	@CLE	7.4%	30%	5.3	6.7	2.3	5.7
10.0	Nick Martinez	R	@HOU	57.8%	33%	5.9	7.2	2.6	4.8
9.8	Trevor Rogers	L	@CIN	37.8%	34%	5.3	6.6	2.4	5.3
9.7	Gavin Williams	R	CWS	94.8%	31%	5.7	7.9	2.9	6.4
9.6	Reid Detmers	L	BOS	62.2%	30%	5.5	7.3	2.7	5.8
9.0	Brady Singer	R	BAL	8.7%	29%	5.9	8.0	3.3	6.1
8.7	Kyle Harrison	L	@ARI	86.0%	31%	5.0	6.6	2.4	4.9
8.5	Andre Pallante	R	@CHC	18.4%	35%	5.5	7.5	2.6	4.4
8.3	David Peterson	L	STL	3.5%	18%	4.8	6.2	2.1	4.6
8.0	Jake Bennett	L	@LAA	7.0%	21%	4.8	6.1	2.2	4.2
7.7	Mitch Keller	R	@WSH	27.2%	29%	5.5	7.4	3.0	4.7
6.8	Michael Paredes	R	@NYY	0.2%	11%	4.5	5.6	2.2	3.7
6.4	Christian Scott	R	@ATL	5.2%	20%	4.6	6.2	2.7	4.5
5.7	Grant Holmes	R	NYM	7.9%	15%	4.3	6.2	2.5	4.3
5.6	Jose Cabrera	R	MIL	0.8%	12%	4.4	6.0	2.5	3.6
5.1	Logan Webb	R	@COL	96.0%	48%	6.2	9.4	5.4	6.3
4.4	Jack Perkins	R	MIA	1.7%	21%	4.6	7.2	3.5	5.0
2.5	Tyler Phillips	R	@ATH	2.9%	31%	5.5	8.9	5.1	4.9
-2.0	Tomoyuki Sugano	R	SF	2.3%	23%	5.2	8.8	6.3	4.0

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@SF	-126	55.3	+0.71	-1.0	+106	+0.71	7.0	O -108	7.56	-0.01
Logan Webb	NYY	+104	44.7	-10.55	+1.0	-138	-10.55	7.0	U -112	7.56	-8.99

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@ SF	-126	55.2	0.66	-1.0	+106	0.66	7.0	O -105	7.57	1.64
Logan Webb	vs. NYY	+104	44.8	-10.48	+1.0	-138	-10.48		U -115		-10.37