Latest topsecretdailynotesfile

Apr 30, 2026, 07:56 AM ET

TODAY

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W%: The individual starting pitcher's win probability using ESPN projections. IP: Projected innings pitched. H+BB: Projected hits plus walks allowed. ER: Projected earned runs allowed. K: Projected strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
14.0	Paul Skenes	R	STL	99.9%	42%	5.7	6.0	1.8	6.1
13.6	Freddy Peralta	R	WSH	96.1%	41%	5.7	6.6	1.8	6.1
11.7	Cristopher Sanchez	L	SF, Gm. 1	98.8%	38%	6.0	7.5	2.6	6.2
10.9	Logan Webb	R	@PHI, Gm. 1	96.3%	32%	6.1	7.8	2.8	6.0
10.8	Kevin Gausman	R	@MIN	98.5%	38%	5.8	7.3	2.7	5.8
10.2	Brandon Woodruff	R	ARI	87.1%	30%	5.2	6.0	2.2	5.0
9.1	Chris Bassitt	R	HOU, Gm. 1	4.7%	36%	5.6	7.5	2.8	5.1
9.0	Bailey Ober	R	TOR	25.7%	24%	5.5	6.9	2.7	5.2
8.9	Michael Soroka	R	@MIL	60.7%	25%	5.1	6.6	2.6	5.3
8.5	Framber Valdez	L	@ATL	95.5%	38%	5.9	8.2	3.3	5.5
8.3	Miles Mikolas	R	@NYM	0.4%	21%	5.2	6.5	2.3	4.2
8.1	Jeffrey Springs	L	KC	46.8%	32%	5.4	7.1	2.8	4.6
7.8	Andrew Abbott	L	COL	41.9%	31%	5.5	7.6	3.2	5.4
7.8	Adrian Houser	R	@PHI, Gm. 2	0.6%	35%	5.8	7.9	3.1	4.4
7.1	Peter Lambert	R	@BAL, Gm. 1	8.1%	23%	5.0	7.2	2.9	5.1
7.1	Noah Cameron	L	@ATH	14.8%	27%	5.4	7.6	3.2	5.0
6.7	Brandon Young	R	HOU, Gm. 2	5.1%	28%	5.0	6.9	2.9	4.5
6.4	Bryce Elder	R	DET	76.9%	26%	5.3	7.6	3.4	5.0
6.2	Michael Lorenzen	R	@CIN	1.0%	24%	5.1	7.3	3.2	4.8
6.1	Hunter Dobbins	R	@PIT	0.8%	14%	4.6	6.5	2.5	4.1
5.3	Lance McCullers Jr.	R	@BAL, Gm. 2	7.1%	19%	4.6	7.1	2.9	4.6
4.9	Andrew Painter	R	SF, Gm. 2	19.2%	24%	5.1	7.8	3.5	4.6

TOMORROW

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
13.9	Zack Wheeler	R	@MIA	93.8%	37%	5.7	6.1	1.9	6.3
12.8	Bryan Woo	R	KC	97.8%	41%	5.8	6.1	2.0	5.3
10.6	Emmet Sheehan	R	@STL	57.9%	36%	5.2	6.3	2.2	5.3
10.1	Will Warren	R	BAL	59.2%	33%	5.2	6.6	2.4	5.7
10.1	Jacob Misiorowski	R	@WSH	95.6%	29%	4.9	6.6	2.3	6.5
9.9	Mitch Keller	R	CIN	36.2%	36%	5.7	7.2	2.6	5.0
9.7	Robbie Ray	L	@TB	77.5%	35%	5.5	7.3	2.5	5.2
9.3	Jack Flaherty	R	TEX	43.6%	34%	5.3	7.2	2.7	5.7
9.3	Eury Perez	R	PHI	77.6%	22%	5.0	6.3	2.1	5.1
8.5	Zac Gallen	R	@CHC	63.3%	33%	5.4	7.4	2.7	5.0
8.4	Cole Ragans	L	@SEA	85.9%	19%	4.9	7.1	2.4	6.0
8.3	Brady Singer	R	@PIT	8.9%	28%	5.5	7.4	2.8	4.8
8.0	Colin Rea	R	ARI	5.7%	26%	5.4	7.1	2.8	4.5
7.5	Noah Schultz	L	@SD	17.8%	23%	5.0	7.4	2.4	5.1
7.3	Patrick Corbin	L	@MIN	1.4%	33%	5.2	7.6	2.9	4.9
7.1	Jake Irvin	R	MIL	1.2%	26%	5.4	7.5	3.1	4.7
6.8	Cade Povich	L	@NYY	0.5%	23%	5.2	7.6	3.1	5.2
6.6	Shane McClanahan	L	SF	27.5%	19%	4.7	6.8	2.5	4.5
6.6	Simeon Woods Richardson	R	TOR	0.7%	23%	4.9	6.9	2.6	4.2
6.6	German Marquez	R	CWS	1.7%	30%	5.0	7.1	2.6	3.9
6.5	J.T. Ginn	R	CLE	0.7%	20%	4.8	6.5	2.7	4.1
6.5	MacKenzie Gore	L	@DET	79.3%	22%	5.1	8.0	3.2	5.7
6.5	Joey Cantillo	L	@ATH	23.9%	21%	4.7	7.3	2.8	5.4
6.2	Christian Scott	R	@LAA	0.8%	23%	4.6	6.4	2.8	4.4
5.4	Mike Burrows	R	@BOS	3.9%	21%	4.7	7.0	3.2	4.9
3.9	Matthew Liberatore	L	LAD	4.0%	16%	4.6	7.5	3.2	4.2
3.6	Walbert Urena	R	NYM	0.4%	23%	4.9	8.5	3.3	4.4
3.2	Jake Bennett	L	HOU	0.3%	20%	4.7	7.8	3.7	4.7
2.3	Grant Holmes	R	@COL	12.4%	31%	4.9	8.2	4.8	5.2
-1.9	Jose Quintana	L	ATL	0.3%	22%	4.9	8.9	6.0	4.4

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@SF	-126	55.3	+0.71	-1.0	+106	+0.71	7.0	O -108	7.56	-0.01
Logan Webb	NYY	+104	44.7	-10.55	+1.0	-138	-10.55	7.0	U -112	7.56	-8.99

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@ SF	-126	55.2	0.66	-1.0	+106	0.66	7.0	O -105	7.57	1.64
Logan Webb	vs. NYY	+104	44.8	-10.48	+1.0	-138	-10.48		U -115		-10.37