Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is geared towards ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.
Note: This file has been updated with overnight pitching changes and weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.
What you need to know for Friday's MLB Games
By Todd Zola
Nathan Eovaldi is slated to come off the IL and face the Yankees. Despite some recent success against the AL East leaders, Eovaldi only threw three innings in his only rehab start, so it's best to wait until after the break to activate Eovaldi.
Friday's slate isn't the best for streaming pitchers, but there are some viable options. Tyler Wells (40%) is coming off a rare rough outing against the Angels while the Rays are heading into their weekend set on a high note after winning their early week series against the Red Sox. Even so, Wells in in play against a lineup with the sixth lowest wOBA and sixth highest strikeout rate facing righthanders. The next best candidates square off in Busch Stadium with Andre Pallante and the St. Louis Cardinals hosting Hunter Greene (30%) and the Cincinnati Reds. Greene is listed slightly higher on the rankings. He's the better pitcher, but Pallante faces a weaker offense and has home field advantage.
With the caveat there is a lot of noise in team splits facing lefthanded pitching, the Chicago White Sox are surprisingly the most productive lineup with a southpaw on the bump. On Friday night, they'll face Twins lefty Devin Smeltzer who has surrendered three homers in each of his previous two outings. There are plenty of batters to deploy, including Andrew Vaughn (58%), Yoan Moncada (49%), AJ Pollock (19%), Josh Harrison (4%), Leury Garcia (1%), Seby Zavala (1%).
One of the perils of final weekend of the first half is some clubs will opt to shut down injured hitters, so they get extra time to heal. There are a handful of top batters leaving games early over the past few days, thus are worth tracking. The most important players are Mike Trout, Eloy Jimenez, Garrett Cooper, Jon Berti and Bryan Reynolds.
Fortunately, there are several solid examples of batters enjoying the platoon edge while facing vulnerable pitchers to use as replacements. The best options are Eugenio Suarez (57%), Oneil Cruz (47%), Randal Grichuk (45%), Luke Voit (31%), Adam Duvall (24%), Cal Raleigh (3%) and Jake Meyers (3%).
It's not too late to start another free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday.
Starting pitcher rankings for Friday
Best Sub-50% Rostered Hitters for Friday
Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Daniel Vogelbach (PIT, 1B -- 3%) at German Marquez
Josh Naylor (CLE, RF -- 42%) vs. Drew Hutchison
Randal Grichuk (COL, RF -- 45%) vs. Jose Quintana
Steven Kwan (CLE, CF -- 39%) vs. Hutchison
Jose Iglesias (COL, SS -- 6%) vs. Quintana
Vinnie Pasquantino (KC, 1B -- 9%) at Alek Manoah
Yoshi Tsutsugo (PIT, 1B -- 1%) at Marquez
Elias Diaz (COL, C -- 5%) vs. Quintana
Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS -- 47%) at Marquez
Yandy Diaz (TB, 1B -- 49%) vs. Tyler Wells
Worst Over-50% Rostered Hitters for Friday
Mike Yastrzemski (SF, RF -- 61%) vs. Brandon Woodruff
Joc Pederson (SF, CF -- 79%) vs. Woodruff
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B -- 50%) vs. Robbie Ray
Rowdy Tellez (MIL, 1B -- 61%) at Alex Wood
J.T. Realmuto (PHI, C -- 99%) at Sandy Alcantara
Christian Vazquez (BOS, C -- 62%) at Jordan Montgomery
Thairo Estrada (SF, SS -- 52%) vs. Woodruff
Nick Castellanos (PHI, RF -- 97%) at Alcantara
Luis Urias (MIL, 3B -- 55%) at Wood
Adolis Garcia (TEX, CF -- 83%) vs. Ray
THE BAT X's Best Stacks for Today
Colorado Rockies vs. Jose Quintana
Pittsburgh Pirates at German Marquez
Prop of the Day
Jose Quintana Strikeouts: Over/Under 3.5 (-150/+120)
PROJECTION
THE BAT sees Quintana putting up 3.2 strikeouts for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 43.4% of the time. THE BAT believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $24.42.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER
THE BAT projects Jose Quintana in the 77th percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.
Jose Quintana has been unlucky with his strikeouts this year, compiling an 8.23 K/9 despite THE BAT estimating his true talent level to be 8.65 - a 0.43 K/9 gap.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER
The Colorado Rockies (20.4 K%, per THE BAT X) project to have the fourth-least strikeout-heavy lineup today.
Coors Field projects as the No. 30 venue in MLB for strikeouts, according to THE BAT projection system.
Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game projects for the second-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86 degrees.
The Rockies have eight hitters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Quintana today.
