One shot.
You can win or lose on one shot.
One possession. One turnover. One missed 3-pointer. One uncredited assist.
Even a single missed free throw can be the difference between winning and losing an imaginary -- yet highly emotionally satisfying -- fantasy basketball championship.
At this stage, every numerical sliver bears a disproportionately high amount of weight.
(By the way -- Just because you're not going to win it all in a particular league doesn't mean you're not competing through the end of the season. A top-three finish is a positive. Not finishing dead last is a positive. As I tell my increasingly bitter daughter: Kindergarten is about savoring the little victories.)
You've made it to the end. Your scrappy fantasy basketball franchise has fought all the way to the final handful of games. Above all? Be proud that your caring about your team has survived.
You've put in a lot of time and energy. So let's be careful out there. Protect your percentages. Or if you're in a league that tabulates turnovers? Make sure you're protecting the ball.
Maybe you're in a head-to-head championship clash. Maybe you're in a narrow battle for roto supremacy. Make sure you don't entrust a key category to an inconsistent player ... especially an inconsistent player who gets a lot of touches.
In the heady, mad rush for victory, we all can be guilty of prioritizing volume over efficiency. Big points and rebound totals feel more immediate. But for most of us, in the end, percentages hold just as much weight as the volume-based categories.
And when you combine inconsistent shooting (or free throw shooting) with a high volume of attempts? That can be a season-killer.
Give your endgame lineup a one-thousand-yard stare. Look at it under a microscope.
Above all, it's time to ask yourself: "How much can I really trust these guys?"
Let's take a look at three pools of players who could hurt you in a single-game situation: Free throw killers, field goal killers and high-volume killers.
Free throw killers
Let's start with the painfully obvious.
If you feel reasonably secure in blocks, rebounds and field goal percentage, and you're in a dogfight for free throw percentage, you have no business starting Andre Drummond, Dwight Howard or DeAndre Jordan in an endgame situation.
Just look at the season-long percentages:
Andre Drummond = 39.1 FT%
Dwight Howard = 53.0 FT%
DeAndre Jordan = 49.4 FT%
Three players to avoid, given said situation.
But there's also a solid second tier of late-season free throw percentage killers.
Rudy Gobert, Mason Plumlee and Hassan Whiteside are highly dangerous in a free throw battle. Suffice it to say, you should check out any big man's recent free throw performance before running him out there in this situation.
Non-big men I'd worry about: (a healthy) Dion Waiters, Elfrid Payton, Jrue Holiday, Tony Allen ... and LeBron James.
Especially LeBron James.
If I'm nursing a slim lead in free throws, after the Bermuda Triangle of Drummond-Howard-Jordan, LeBron is the player I'd worry about the most. Look at his box scores this season, and they're riddled with 4-of-8, 5-of-10 and 3-of-7 outings from the stripe. Don't forget that for the season, LeBron is shooting a career-low 67.9 percent from the free throw line.
Field goal killers
Players I would avoid strictly on the basis of field goal percentage: Kemba Walker, Harrison Barnes, Carmelo Anthony, Danilo Gallinari, Kevin Love, Goran Dragic, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Avery Bradley, Eric Gordon, D'Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Nikola Vucevic and Ricky Rubio.
If you're in a field goal battle, and if you're looking for late help off the wire, avoid Frank Kaminsky at all costs.
If you're looking for a swing-of-the-fences type of performance or out-of-position upside in 3-pointers, Kaminsky's your guy. But down the stretch, he's been terrifyingly inconsistent from the field. Over his last nine games, Kaminsky has posted 2-of-7, 4-of-14, 0-of-9 and 3-of-11 shooting performances.
High-volume killers
A couple of weeks back, I wrote about players you could trust in short-term situations. Players who have established a reasonable baseline of consistency over the final month of the regular season.
Now, with just a handful of games to go, I want you to take a beat and think: Are any of my less-consistent, less-efficient players liable to kneecap me in a key category? Thank goodness we have a season's worth of data to figure out whom to be wary of.
Because when it comes down the final slate of games, if you feel secure in enough of the volume-based categories to win, you shouldn't be shy about benching a star, no matter how big the name.
Because the low-efficiency stars are the players who corral the highest volume of shot attempts and possessions.
Inconsistent players plus high amount of touches -- these are the players you need to worry about.
If I'm confident in my victory? If I am playing it safely? If I am only worried about a wildly off-kilter one-game performance? I'm checking season-long performance at the door and sitting my high-volume, low-efficiency stars.
And because these players have displayed a tendency towards streakiness, it's also important to pay attention to recent performance. Which players are lurching down the stretch between productive and numerically disquieting?
Right off the top, here are some high-volume players I'd consider benching: Paul George, Devin Booker, and Marc Gasol.
Yes, the same Devin Booker who went for 70 against the Celtics. The one who scored 121 points over three games before sitting with an ankle injury against the Hawks.
Just remember that in the four games prior to his 21-of-40 night against Boston, Booker shot a combined 22-of-81. As in 27 percent. For a player who leads the Suns in shot attempts nearly every time he steps on the floor.
How about some even bigger names? I'd consider sitting Chris Paul, Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins.
Typically, Paul is a beacon of field goal efficiency. Just last night, Paul was nearly spotless (9-of-15 FG, 2 3-pointers) in a defense-free tilt against Washington. But in his mad push to lift the Clippers to a first-round home-court advantage, Paul is looking to score a little more. It's late in the season. Paul's legs are betraying his 3-point shot a little around the edges.
As a result, Paul has posted some wildly inconsistent lines. He was 0-of-8 against Cleveland. 5-of-18 against the Jazz (including 0-of-8 from downtown). Paul is just as liable to shoot 9-of-15. He should go absolutely medieval on the Suns tonight. But he's got at least a couple of clunkers left in him between now and game 82.
When it comes to Davis and DMC, I don't have to waste a lot of your time re-explaining that the Big Easy Twin Towers Experiment has produced some manic depressive box scores.
How about two absolute velvet-rope-class mega-fantasy superduperstars?
If I were coasting going into game 82 ... I'd consider sitting Russell Westbrook and James Harden. There. I said it.
I'll go one further: In a league that counts turnovers, in a coasting situation -- it's mandatory.
Westbrook is chasing triple-double history. As a man who can appreciate the epochal sprawl of a sports statistic, for me, from here through game 82, Westbrook is a mandatory must-watch.
But stars can get sloppy down the stretch. They're tired. Off-rhythm final-week rotations cultivate inconsistency.
And when Westbrook has a night when he shoots 37 percent from the field ... he means it. If you roster Westbrook, you know he's capable of a 10-of-27 FG, 8 TO kind of night.
Night-in, night-out Harden enthusiasts are willing to bear his 45 percent field goal percentage. That's largely due to the 3.2 3-pointers he's chipping in. With Westbrook and Harden, the sheer weight of their volume crushes doubts about their inefficiency.
For the season, Harden's shooting at only a replacement level-ish 35 percent from deep. Even worse, he's nursing and playing his way through a wrist injury. That 5-of-20 line he threw down against Golden State on Tuesday is a big red flag.
Again, all I'm saying is be careful. Don't be shy about benching a player who could submarine a season with an off night. I don't care if it's Frank Kaminsky or Russell Westbrook. When it comes to that final lineup, consider every angle. No name is sacred.
