When it comes to building long-term, season-long fake-basketball success I play the percentages. As in I build my teams on strong percentage performances.
Field goal percentage. Free throw percentage. 3-point percentage.
Teams built on the efficiency metrics are the teams built for the long haul.
If you're in a rotisserie league, you can build early leads in the percentages, then deal for volume if needed as the season progresses. If you're in a head-to-head league, winning the percentages gives you a week-in-week out base of performance you can rely upon.
Here's the thing: When it comes to gauging efficiency from the field I don't go by field goal percentage.
I don't go by free throw percentage. At least not on its own.
When it comes to anchoring my team's efficiency, I would rather roster Klay Thompson -- owner of a replacement level 46.8 field goal percentage -- than Anthony Davis. And Davis shot 50.5 percent from the field last season.
Both players help your team from the floor and from the line. Thompson just does it in a more impactful -- but less obvious -- way.
Both players are plus free throw shooters. Davis shot 80.2 percent from the line in 2016-17. Thompson shot 85.3 FT%. But Davis' free throw percentage carries more weight because he averaged 8.6 free throws to Thompson's 2.8.
The disparity in efficiency becomes clearer when you look at true shooting percentage.
True shooting percentage (TS%) is one of fantasy's most underrated metrics. It's a stat that folds in overall performance from the floor, weighting points generated per attempt. It allows for the extra point generated by a 3-point shot. It also allows for the single point generated for a successful free throw.
(Here's how you calculate it: true shooting percentage = (total points x 50) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44)])
To put it in perspective: A TS% of 50.0 is mediocre. Anything over 55.0 is solid, while 60.0 or over is elite.
If you're looking to build a team that can weather the ups and downs of variations in volume, true shooting percentage should be where you start. You just need to learn how to deploy it properly.
There are players with great field goal percentages who can still kill you at the free throw line. There are average field goal performers who excel at free throws and 3-pointers. And there are players who can help from just about anywhere on the court.
The good
Karl-Anthony Towns, C. Minnesota Timberwolves
2016-17: 61.8 TS%
I think Towns can at least lay a claim to going No. 1 overall this season. My reasoning: Towns' ability to not only maintain, but boost nearly every conceivable category.
Towns does this while playing a position that suffers from scarcity: center. There's a paucity of statistically well-rounded centers in fantasy.
And while there are a lot of big men with high field goal percentages, there aren't many who back that percentage up with solid 3-point shooting and free throw shooting.
Seth Curry, SG, Dallas Mavericks
2016-17: 61.8 TS%
"The other Curry" is on the shelf for a few games with a stress reaction. We'll have to wait to see his 2017-18 debut as the Mavericks' small-ball shooting guard. Fantasy-wise, I'm excited to see what the pairing of Curry and Dennis Smith Jr. is capable of.
Both Currys boast top-shelf true shooting percentages (Stephen Curry had 62.4 TS% in 2016-17). But while Steph is a hard-to-acquire first-rounder, Seth is the kind of player who may even be on your league's waiver wire (thanks to the stress reaction).
He's hurt but projects to be back on the court in the next couple of weeks. When he comes back, he'll be ready to provide some TS%-driven consistency.
Klay Thompson, SG, Golden State Warriors
2016-17: 59.2 TS%
While Thompson's field goal percentage reads as a pedestrian 46.8 percent, it's secretly enhanced by the fact that a majority of his attempts come from 3-point territory.
In 2016-17 -- even with some offensive volume siphoned off by Durant's arrival -- Thompson still managed 8.3 3-point attempts per game. That means nearly half of Thompson's attempts come from deep.
The fact that he converts more than 40 percent of his 3s, combined with the heavy volume creates a paradox. He's just so-so from the field, but the extra point of production from all of those 3s means Thompson is secretly elite.
The elite shooting upside (from the field and line) doesn't become fully apparent until viewed under the guise of true shooting percentage.
Gary Harris, SG, Denver Nuggets
2016-17: 61.1 TS%
For fantasy hoops junkies (like yourself) Harris went from sleeper to former sleeper this draft season. He's a key part of what promises to be one of fantasy's up-and-coming rotations in Denver.
Harris' opening night true shooting percentage: 94.1. He took only seven shots, but hit three 3-pointers. That's some serious efficiency.
Otto Porter Jr., SF, Washington Wizards
2016-17: 62.8 TS%
Like Harris, Porter is the kind of player who doesn't require a ton of shot volume to deliver fantasy numbers. His 2016-17 62.8 true shooting percentage was good enough to land him in the overall top 10.
Along with Kyle Korver, Steph Curry and Isaiah Thomas, Porter managed to hit the TS% top 10 thanks to 3-point production. (And LeBron placed just outside of the top 10).
That's significant because the rest of the top 10 belonged to big men who dominate regular old-school field goal percentage.
The problem with many top big men in field goal percentage? They don't do so well from the line. Which brings us to our next category: players who subvert a solid true shooting percentage with poor free throw shooting.
The secretly not so good
Rudy Gobert, C, Utah Jazz
2016-17: 68.1 TS%
Thanks to a whopping 77.8 field goal percentage, Gobert led the NBA in true shooting percentage last season. But he shot only 65.3 percent from the free throw line, putting him in the class of players who lower their TS% with poor free throw shooting.
65.3 percent from the line isn't as bad some others I'm about to mention. And Gobert doesn't take a ton of free throws (5.9 per game in 2016-17). But Gobert's free throw attempts have risen every season, as his offensive role has grown. And shooting 65 percent from the line is just mediocre enough to take some of the luster out of that gonzo field goal percentage.
DeAndre Jordan, C, LA Clippers
2016-17: 62.8 TS%
A scarier version of Gobert's bipolar performance: 71.4 percent from the field, 48.2 percent from the line. The rule change on intentional fouling helps players like Jordan, but 48.2 percent is daunting regardless of free throw volume.
Dwight Howard, C, Charlotte Hornets
2016-17: 62.7 TS%
Howard's 2016-17 true shooting percentage was his best in nearly 10 seasons. He did manage to nudge his free throw percentage above 50.0 percent (at 53.3 FT%). Thankfully, the rule changes benefit Howard as well.
As his offensive role has aged and diminished, Howard has become less of a true shooting liability. With free throws, he's become more of a 3-of-5 free throw guy instead of a 5-of-10 guy. Poor free throw shooting at that low a volume can be masked.
Clint Capela, C, Houston Rockets
2016-17: 63.8 TS%
Same dynamic as Gobert: a young player whose poor free throw shooting becomes more of a factor as his touches increase. This is set to be a breakout year of sorts for Capela.
I'll be keeping a close eye on which way his true shooting percentage breaks. The assumption is that it will take a hit thanks to an increase in free throw volume. But Capela is still only 23, meaning the possibility exists for him improving his free throw percentage. (It has improved every year of Capela's career, going from 17.4 FT% to 53.1 FT%.)
The bad
DeMar DeRozan, SG, Toronto Raptors
2016-17: 55.2 TS%
DeRozan is the anti-DeAndre. His elite free throw production (84.2 FT% at 8.7 attempts per game) is diminished by poor shooting from the floor (46.7 FG% in 2016-17).
And unlike Thompson, DeRozan doesn't secretly stash a sterling 3-point percentage. DeRozan is also the anti-Klay. He shot only 26.6 percent from beyond the arc in 2016-17 ... his worst 3-point performance in years.
John Wall, PG, Washington Wizards
2016-17: 54.1 TS%
Here's the thing: Wall is improving in true shooting percentage. His 54.1 TS% in 2016-17 was a career high. Wall -- as superstars are expected to do -- has worked to shore up an area of relative weakness. Lest we forget: This is a player who was 3-of-42 from deep in his second NBA season.
My point is that there's still some upside for Wall. He may not have hit his ceiling in his age 27 season. If Wall could get his true shooting percentage into the range of 58.0-59.0 TS%? He becomes a top-five player overall.
Ricky Rubio, PG, Utah Jazz
2016-17: 53.9 TS%
Similar situation to Wall: improving incrementally on a subpar area of his game. At 26, he still can continue to improve in what promises to be a fantasy-friendly situation in Utah.
Book it that Rubio posts a career fantasy season.
