A week ago, on draft night, would you have traded Giannis Antetokounmpo?
We're talking the Greek Freak going with the No. 1 overall pick. No. 2 overall at worst.
If somebody offered you a top-three overall pick and a high second-rounder to trade up, would you have done it?
A week ago, on draft night? I'd probably do that deal.
Today? A whole four games into our 82-game tilt? Not so fast.
It's amazing how quickly some fake basketball enthusiasts are willing to abandon weeks of predraft consideration.
We prep. We carefully crunch numbers throughout training camp and a mind-numbing preseason. Each new development in role and usage is carefully followed.
Then ... we draft. We draft with a mix of caution and impunity. Excitement spikes. Rosters are formed.
Then ... the season starts. The games start to count.
And our mood swings begin.
Four games in, and Antetokounmpo is averaging 36.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 2.3 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game.
Four games in, and Antetokounmpo is this year's Russell Westbrook -- a high-volume mega-super-duper-star on a statistical joyride for the ages.
Going off averages (important this early in the season with so few games played), he's hitting 15.64 on the Player Rater. Good for No. 1 overall.
The Greek Freak's usage rate towers at 34.2, almost seven points better than last season's rate. (To lend perspective, Westbrook set the all-time record last season with a 41.7 usage rate.)
But Antetokounmpo is more than mere volume. His efficiency-based metrics are even more impressive.
Antetokounmpo's PER is 40.31 (Wilt Chamberlain set the all-time record in 1962-63 at 31.8). He's shooting 65.9 percent from the field. He's cresting on a 69.6 true shooting percentage. (Per Basketball Reference, the best true single-season shooting percentage of all time was 70.8 percent, via 2011-12 Tyson Chandler, and he was chucking about a third of Antetokounmpo's shot attempts.)
Here's some brave analysis: Antetokounmpo is producing at a historically unsustainable rate.
So, now, would you do it?
As in, one week in, would you consider a sell-high offer from a panicky owner? What could you get in return?
We're talking a supersized sell-high situation. We're talking a king's ransom.
How about Greek Freak for, say, Russell Westbrook and all kinds of change?
Four comparatively semi-sub-par games in, and Westbrook is this season's Stephen Curry, a player who absorbed a new superstar teammate and lost value. He's averaging "only" 21.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 12.8 assists. He is only 18th on the Player Rater (again, using averages).
Given the right amount of panic, you might parlay a scalding-hot Greek Freak into a slow-starting Westbrook and equally slow-starting second-rounder like, say, a Westbrook and a Nikola Jokic (48th on the Rater).
Four games ago, the deal would have simply been a player with a 1.9 ADP (Antetokounmpo) for a player with a 2.3 ADP (Westbrook) and another with a 13.2 ADP (Jokic). Four games ago, you'd probably do that deal.
And selling high this early in the season is a fantastic way of getting a leg up on the competition, because the deeper you get into the season, the deeper your sample size. Mood swings level out. Bipolarity recedes. Statistical equilibrium takes hold.
If you want to parlay a first-rounder into multiple high picks in return, now's the time.
Let's take a look at a few fast starts and ponder if they'd get a rich return.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF/PF, Milwaukee Bucks
Current Player Rater average: 15.64 (first overall)
Stat line: 36.8 PPG, 10.8 RPG, 5.3 APG, 0.3 3PG, 2.3 SPG, 1.0 BPG
Secondary stats: 70.8 TS%, 34.2 USG, 40.31 PER
I'm rostering Antetokounmpo in a couple of leagues. It would take a lot to get me to consider moving him. Still, just about every supportive statistic -- PER, usage rate, true shooting percentage -- underscores that Antetokounmpo is playing at a historically unsustainable rate.
Either that or he's about to set multiple NBA records.
There's every chance Antetokounmpo ends the season at No. 1 overall on the Player Rater. But if someone comes at you with a crazy offer, you have to consider it. Right now, every fantasy enthusiast on the planet would molt at the prospect of rostering Antetokounmpo.
If you're in a league with me, and you're interested? Make me an offer.
But it had better be damn good.
Verdict: Ask for a high-first-rounder, high-second-rounder
DeMarcus Cousins, C, New Orleans Pelicans
Current Player Rater average: 14.44 (third overall)
Stat line: 31.0 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 4.5 SPG, 2.5 3PG, 1.0 SPG, 3.3 BPG
Secondary stats: TS%: 59.5, USG: 36.3, PER: 26.88
We're used to DMC racking up gobs of points and rebounds. We're used to DMC chipping in some of the best out-of-position assist rates in fantasy. Last season, we even started getting used to Cousins launching 3s with Ryan Anderson-esque abandon -- and hitting them with surprising effectiveness (36.1 3FG% in 2016-17).
What we're not used to is Cousins rejecting shots like the second coming of Mark Eaton.
Cousins has never averaged more than 1.7 blocks per game. As a rule, NBA big men don't get better at blocking shots as their careers unfold. They tend to peak in blocks in their first couple of seasons.
As of this writing, Cousins is the second-best shot-blocker in fantasy. But seven of his 13 blocks came in one game: the season opener against the Grizzlies. So expect Cousins to regress back toward the 1.5 BPG range, which would carve about three points out of his player rating -- which would push him back toward the bottom of the top 10 overall.
Here's the thing. There's a chance that Cousins is under-producing in 3-pointers. He's attempting a career-high 8.3 3s per game. And he's shooting only 31 percent from deep. That percentage is going to rise.
And while his season-high 10 3-point attempts came in a mostly Anthony Davis-less game Tuesday night, remind yourself he's in a statistically special situation, as in he's playing in a twin-towers dynamic that no one can realistically predict the ramifications of. As in none of us can predict exactly the season-long numerical permutations of the DMC-Davis pairing.
Throw in the fact that the Pelicans are already injury-depleted. They just signed Josh Smith out of street clothes. Throw in that Cousins patrols a position that suffers from relative scarcity.
Yes, one of his best games came without Davis. But this could be a perfect fantasy storm of a season for Cousins.
This would need to be a Greek Freak-sized offer.
Verdict: Ask for a high-first-rounder, high-second-rounder
LeBron James, SF/PF, Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Player Rater average: 14.15 (fourth overall)
Stat line: 27.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 8.0 APG, 2.0 3PG, 1.3 SPG, 1.0 BPG
Secondary stats: 70.3 TS%, 28.2 USG, 33.79 PER
LeBron's sky-high true shooting percentage and PER both point toward slight overproduction. Remember that LeBron has a ton of miles, and that he's a mortal lock to miss 8-10 games, and that Isaiah Thomas will come back at some point to siphon off some production.
LeBron just threw down his first triple-double of the season Tuesday night against the Nets. He's going to have gobs of triple-doubles until Thomas returns. But the efficiency metrics bear out that this rate of production won't last.
Verdict: Ask for a mid-first-rounder, mid-second-rounder
Nikola Vucevic, C, Orlando Magic
Current Player Rater average: 11.32 (eighth overall)
Stat line: 23.8 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.8 3PG, 0.8 SPG, 2.0 BPG
Secondary stats: 66.5 TS%, 24.2 USG, 29.25 PER
What about dealing Vucevic? A sixth-round ADP currently looming at eighth overall on the Player Rater?
He's doing better than Westbrook. Karl-Anthony Towns. James Harden. A host of other early underachievers. What about selling high here?
Vucevic's early gonzo value arrived via one monster game: a 41-point, 12-rebound, 6 3-pointer romp over the Nets in Game 2. Still, Vucevic's newfound early proclivity toward taking 3s (career average: 0.1 per game) and throwing down blocks (career average: 0.9 per game) advertises a newfound embrace of two key fantasy statistics.
If the 3s keep falling, Vucevic could finish the season as a top-20 player. But he's not a top-10 player. He should be a fantastic Week 1 sell-high candidate.
Unfortunately, the first week bipolar dynamic doesn't work like that.
ADPs are still too fresh in the collective memory. It's too early for most owners to consider bailing out on that epic a scale. Even if Vucevic suddenly becomes a permanent fixture in fantasy's top 10 (and he won't), it will be at least a month until owners can expect fair market value in return for his services. Draft nights have to fade into memory first.
This early in the campaign, ADP bias is simply too powerful to overcome with pesky little things like ... logic.
Verdict: Ask for a mid-second-rounder, high-third-rounder
