Which players should you build around and which players should you fade in DFS as we tip off Friday's 12-game slate? Our experts have the answers.
Today's panel includes ESPN Fantasy's Kyle Soppe, Jim McCormick and Joe Kaiser.
Players to build around
Kyle Soppe - Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors
I understand that his standing in the Golden State fantasy hierarchy isn't overly appealing, and his 118th-ranked usage rate in the early going isn't either. Still, the DFS industry has baked those mitigating factors into Thompson's price tag tonight. In fact, I believe they may have overcompensated (especially on DraftKings), as he's priced at the very bottom of tier-two shooting guards.
The advanced metrics like the Wizards' defensive start to this season, but they've played the 76ers, Pistons, Nuggets, and Lakers, all teams that might occasionally struggle in 5-on-0 situations -- in practice! In Thompson, he's played at least 37 minutes in 4-of-5 games with a 46.5 shooting percentage from distance. The upside exceeds what you are being asked to invest, and with 7.6 rebounds-plus-assists per game this season, the floor is slightly raised from years past.
Jim McCormick -- Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
We already know Curry is the world's most prolific shooter, as he's launching what would be an NBA record 10.4 3-pointers per game through five games this season. What you might not know is that he's hitting on just 36.5 percent of such shots, well below his 43.3 percent success rate over the past four seasons. To me, this indicates there is a positive correction, however slight, due for Curry from beyond the arc.
Curry is also thriving again in the pick-and-roll, leading the NBA in points per possession (1.36) on such play actions, just ahead of LeBron James. He matches up quite well for this meeting with the Wizards, a team allowing 48.1 fantasy points per game to point guards on FanDuel this season, the 10th-highest rate in the league. The collective awesomeness of the Warriors' roster does serve to lower Curry's ceiling a bit, but I think his pricing, especially on DraftKings, offers an abundance of potential for him to exceed value tonight in a marquee matchup with John Wall.
Joe Kaiser -- John Wall, Washington Wizards
The Warriors defense has played a little better lately, rising to No. 20 in efficiency, but it still has a ways to go before we can say they have returned to the form of previous seasons. Enter Wall, who is around $2,000 cheaper than Russell Westbrook tonight, yet has a similar ceiling thanks to his ability to rack up points, assists, rebounds and steals. Consider him to be a top value among point guards on Friday.
Players to fade
Kyle Soppe -- Carmelo Anthony, Oklahoma City Thunder
He's off to a great start (24.8 points on 46.3 percent shooting) and I expect the numbers of rosters he's selected for tonight to reflect it. No, thanks. By pricing him in the Draymond Green tier, both FanDuel and DraftKings have sapped any upside, leaving you with only sadness to be felt if you elect to look in his direction tonight.
Earlier this week, Eric Karabell touched on worries about Anthony's future and, with an average shot distance that is currently 7.7 percent deeper than his previous career high, I agree. The Timberwolves have struggled defensively thus far, but I'm not thinking a Tom Thibodeau-coached team will struggle for long. For me, I'll say no to Melo, and will continue to do so for as long as he is priced in this tier.
Jim McCormick -- Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
It's tough to fade this triple-double machine, especially since he just delivered yet antoher triple-double against the Pacers and he gets a matchup tonight with a Timberwolves defense that continues to be quite porous. I'm avoiding him tonight, however, as he's failed to meet value (defined by fantasy points produced per $1,000 spent) in three of his first four games.
We still can reasonably project Westbrook to score 50 fantasy points tonight, but at his lofty price point and with simply stronger competition for meaningful usage from the improved roster around him, I just don't think he's a good buy. The Friday slate is filled with values at guard, such as Curry, Dennis Schroder (if he's active) and even Jeff Teague, playing across from Westbrook tonight.
Joe Kaiser -- Evan Fournier, Orlando Magic
Fournier is off to a terrific start to the season but unfortunately for DFS purposes, that has caused his salary to rise. The end result is that a higher price tag doesn't make him a good option heading into tonight's game against the Spurs. As expected, San Antonio is again looking like one of the top defenses in the league, with the Spurs current ranking fourth overall in defensive efficiency.
