Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic.
Today's contributors are ESPN Fantasy's Jim McCormick, Joe Kaiser and Kyle Soppe.
After a bumpy start to the season, Jamal Murray has rattled off a pair of quality games: 26 points (8-for-14 FG, 8-for-8 FT), 2 3s, 5 dimes, 1 steal against the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday and 20 points (8-for-16 FG, 2-for-2 FT), 2 3s, 2 dimes, 1 steal against the New York Knicks on Monday. What are your expectations for Murray (available in 65.5 percent of ESPN leagues) going forward?
Joe Kaiser: What I love about Murray is the size and athleticism he brings to the point guard position. He's a rangy player and a natural scorer who showed confidence right out of the gates as a rookie last season and as a starter this season.
The more he plays, the more I expect him to gain even more confidence and put up big scoring nights this season. I expect his 3-point shooting and steal numbers to rise over the course of the season as well. While Murray isn't a big distributor at this stage in his career, he has a chance to be a useful player -- and more than a streamer -- in his second NBA season.
Kyle Soppe: Murray has piqued my interest, but I'm not yet moving mountains to get him. Most fantasy basketball leagues have very shallow benches, and I often use those spots to swing for extreme upside. Sure, Murray's recent run is impressive, but for me, it's not changing how I think of him. Is his ceiling really all that high?
I understand that he is just 20 years old, and that he appears to have a safe role (at least 29 minutes in four of his last five games), but where in his skill set do you see room for fantasy goodness?
His jump shot is a very big question mark (he's shooting under 25 percent from outside of 8 feet this season), and the Nuggets currently rank 20th in pace of play after ranking seventh last season.
It's difficult to feel good about a point guard who has limited assist upside and scoring downside, so I'll pass for now on Murray, thinking that this season looks a lot like last (12.3 points and 5.5 assists-plus-rebounds per game).
Jim McCormick: My expectations from a fantasy perspective are honestly fairly tempered.
I really like the "real" value Murray provides for a Denver team that simply needs more perimeter scoring to match the elite offensive rating they posted after the break last season.
For some context to his fantasy stock, even during this hot stretch of play, he's 19th among point guards over the past seven days on the Player Rater. This index isn't a perfect approximation of statistical impact, but it does demand balance or elite specialization to ascend in the ranks at a given position. And that's just it; Murray isn't providing plus value in any categories over this recent surge other than raw points and free throw rate.
It is impressive to see Murray tally a usage rate -- a measure of the team plays consumed by an individual player -- of 26.2 percent over his past four games. But with a sluggish assist rate of 16.2 percent and no defensive presence to speak of, I fear we are basically getting excited about a player with a profile similar to that of Jordan Clarkson, rather than say, Kemba Walker, to discuss some spectrum of player comparables.
I am completely cool with adding Murray as a helpful source of scoring pop, but fail to see the diverse skill set required to become an enduring starting fantasy option among combo guards.
