I went to my first NBA game of the season on Saturday, driving down to Brooklyn to check out the Atlanta Hawks at the Brooklyn Nets. This matchup obviously didn't pair two of the most compelling teams in the league ... after all, between them, the Nets and Hawks have a combined 13 wins and 31 losses. However, this was an example of a matchup between two bad teams that therefore results in a competitive game, with both teams outproducing their norm.
I described this phenomenon in the "Analytics advantage" section of Friday's daily notes, when the Chicago Bulls were playing the Sacramento Kings, and since the Nets and Hawks play again on Monday, I'll do the same type of analysis on these two teams in the analytics section below. But it was very unique to watch this phenomenon play out live action, on the Barclays Center floor.
The Hawks started Ersan Ilyasova, Taurean Prince, Miles Plumlee, Dennis Schroder and Kent Bazemore, while Tyler Cavanaugh, Luke Babbitt, DeAndre' Bembry, Isaiah Taylor and Marco Belinelli each played at least 17 minutes off the bench.
Similarly, the Nets started Trevor Booker, DeMarre Carroll, Tyler Zeller, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Allen Crabbe with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Jarrett Allen, Sean Kilpatrick, Joe Harris and Caris LeVert each playing at least 17 minutes off the bench.
The first thing that jumps out at me is the lack of players who were drafted in most fantasy leagues out of that mix. Of the 20 players listed, only four or five were drafted at all in the majority of leagues, with really only Schroder and the injured Hollis-Jefferson drafted close to universally. So, this was a game in which most of the players weren't -- and in a lot of cases still aren't -- on the fantasy landscape. But, if you look at the fantasy production that came out of this game, you will find:
Dennis Schroder: 24 points, 6 assists, 3 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 TO
Spencer Dinwiddie: 15 points, 9 assists, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks, 3 3-pointers, 3 TO
Luke Babbitt: 20 points, 4 3-pointers, 2 rebounds
DeMarre Carroll: 10 rebounds, 9 points, 3 assists, 2 3-pointers, 1 block, 1 TO
Ersan Ilyasova: 11 rebounds, 9 points, 1 steal, 1 TO
Plus: Three more Nets players who scored in double-digits with multiple 3-pointers made
And also: Two more Hawks who scored in double-digits with at least five boards and two steals
And this is with more usual suspects like Bazemore, Booker and Hollis-Jefferson each turning in weaker-than-usual games and not therefore showing up on the previous list.
The point is, when playing fantasy basketball at any level ... be it year-long leagues or daily fantasy leagues, it behooves you to pay attention to teams and games like this. There are stream-able options and/or value-priced DFS contributors who show up on bad teams, especially when they play each other. And if you can string together some cheap production from unexpected sources, it can end up being just as valuable as production from bigger-name guys who play fewer games or terrible matchups. Fantasy is all about the numbers -- it doesn't matter where they come from.
"Men lie, women lie ... numbers don't lie." -- Motto of hip-hop (and fantasy basketball)
Weekend recap
Box scores
Highlights:
Austin Rivers, LA Clippers: 30 points (9-14 FG, 5-7 FT), 7 3-pointers, 5 assists, 5 rebounds, 1 steal, 3 TO
Jimmy Butler, Minnesota Timberwolves: 33 points (10-20 FG, 11-13 FT), 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 3-pointers, 1 steal, 1 block, 1 TO
Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic: 34 points (13-19 FG, 7-7 FT), 12 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, 1 3-pointer, 1 TO
Lowlights:
Pau Gasol, San Antonio Spurs: 5 points (2-6 FG, 1-2 FT), 3 rebounds, 1 assists, 1 block, 2 TO, 16 minutes played
Paul George, Oklahoma City Thunder: 8 points (2-17 FG, 3-4 FT), 8 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 3-pointer, 1 block, 6 TO
Lonzo Ball, Los Angeles Lakers: 2 points (0-4 FG, 2-2 FT), 3 assists, 2 blocks, 1 rebound, 1 TO, 22 minutes played
Weekend takeaways
Rivers, Lou Williams (23 points, 10 assists, 5 rebounds, 3 3-pointers in 35 minutes off the bench) and DeAndre Jordan (17 points, 12 rebounds, 2 blocks, 8-8 FG) are clearly the triumvirate of production for the current iteration of the Clippers. Danilo Gallinari likely will change that dynamic when he returns from injury in the next week or two, and if Wesley Johnson can make more than one in 10 field goal attempts, he has enough all-around game to be of some interest, but for the most part you know which three guys to look for to produce for the Clippers in the short term.
Butler started the season relatively slowly, as he acclimated to his new role and new team, but in recent weeks, he has started to look more like the player we got to know in Chicago. In his past five games, he is averaging 23.2 points, 5.8 assists, 5.2 boards, 1.8 steals, 1.4 3-pointers and 0.8 blocks with only 1.6 turnovers per game. And while we're here, shout out to Butler's former Bulls teammate Taj Gibson, who has also stepped up of late and turned in 20 points and 11 rebounds himself on Sunday.
Vucevic exploded on Sunday, taking advantage of a New York Knicks squad that was missing Kristaps Porzingis in the middle. Speaking of those Knicks, Enes Kanter (18 points, 16 boards) and Michael Beasley (21 points, 3 rebounds) combined to make up a lot of the statistical gap for the absence of Porzingis and Tim Hardaway Jr. on Sunday. Neither will play on Monday, either, which leaves the door open for Kanter, Beasley and Courtney Lee (19 points, 5 rebounds) to play well again.
Gasol's bad line was more of a symptom of the Spurs deciding to rest their players, a Gregg Popovic staple. Gasol was one of the few primary players to play at all, and he played only 16 minutes before heading to the bench himself. There's really nothing to read into this "bad" game, outside of the known that Popovic will readily rest his guys over the course of the long season to keep them fresh.
George and teammate Carmelo Anthony combined for 17 points on 6-of-27 shooting from the floor, which is a fantasy lowlight no matter how you slice it. The fact that it came against the Spurs' "B" team, with most of their starters sitting, is also concerning. However, if there's any silver lining, it's that (though off) George was able to get up 17 shots, while Anthony went for his second straight game in single-digits in a Thunder win. George, Anthony and Westbrook are still learning how to co-exist, but if professional scorer Anthony is willing to cede shots, it could go a long way towards improved chemistry.
I'm a big believer in Ball this season, but games like this do give even me a moment of pause. That said, he is playing through a calf injury similar to the one that troubled him in the Summer League this year, so some of his Sunday struggles can be attributed to physical issues.
Injuries of note
Kyle Anderson came down awkwardly on Sunday, with his leg twisting as another player landed on his foot/ankle. He was diagnosed with a sprained left knee, did not return to the game, and should be considered no better than day-to-day moving forward until a more official prognosis is offered.
Shaun Livingston became the latest typically milder-mannered player to get ejected after a dust-up with a referee. This time, Livingston was arguing what he thought was a foul and walked into the ref's personal space, a situation that the refs usually walk away from. Instead, this referee turned and walked towards Livingston, and they argued face-to-face like baseball managers and umpires do. Livingston leaned in, their foreheads made contact, and Livingston was ejected for touching a referee. It seems unlikely that this will result in a suspension, but keep an eye out for the official NBA ruling.
Analytics advantage for Monday
Simple Rating System (SRS) is a team measurement that takes into account both the strength of schedule and the average point of differential. It gives a more accurate measurement of team quality than just record alone. An average team has an SRS of zero. SRS in the range of 10 is historically good. This season, the Golden State Warriors lead the NBA with an SRS of 11.13 while the Bulls are in last at -11.40.
The Hawks currently have the fourth-worst SRS in the Association (-4.87), while the Nets are sixth-worst (-3.53). Thus, this is another example of two of the weakest teams in the NBA, according to this measure. Both teams are below average on offense, with the Hawks ranking 23rd overall in team offensive rating (105.4 points scored per 100 possessions) while the Nets rank 17th (106.9 points scored per 100 possessions). However, both teams are terrible on defense, with the Hawks ranking 27th (110.8 points allowed per 100 possessions) and the Nets coming in at 23rd (110.3 points allowed per 100 possessions).
As detailed above, these two teams played on Saturday in Brooklyn, and despite injuries and a general lack of talent, both teams were full of fantasy-worthy contributions. They play again on Monday, this time in Atlanta, and the same phenomenon should rule the day again.
You may have to scroll through the ESPN team pages for both squads to actually recognize all of the names playing in this game, but it could be worth it in leagues of all types. For example, the ESPN Fantasy basketball forecaster for this week tells us that the Hawks have four games against reasonable defenses, in a week when six NBA teams play only two games.
Thus, a player on the Hawks could very easily be worth streaming this week over a much better known player on a team with only two games, like the Lakers. Similarly, those in DFS leagues may want to consider guys from this Hawks/Nets game as value punt plays in your DFS rosters tonight.
Top players to watch tonight
Giannis Antetokounmpo had "slowed down" to "only" 23.8 points, 11 boards, 3 assists and 3.3 combined blocks/steals with one missed game in the middle for a 10-day stretch late last month, as the Milwaukee Bucks acclimated to Eric Bledsoe's presence on the team. However, he has resumed his assault on the rest of the league over the past week, averaging 28.3 points with 9 rebounds, 5 assists and 5.4 combined blocks/steals in his past three games. He faces the Celtics on Monday, against whom he is averaging 32.5 points, 11.5 boards, 5 assists and 3.5 combined blocks/steals in two games thus far this season.
Devin Booker is a high-variance high-end player. He has gone for at least 33 points, 4 boards and 4 assists in two of his past three games, and on Monday faces a Philadelphia 76ers squad that is in the bottom 10 in the NBA in preventing fantasy points to opposing shooting guards.
Anthony Davis will miss his second straight game on Monday with a pelvis/groin injury. This opens the door for DeMarcus Cousins to potentially explode again, as he scored 38 points with 8 boards and 1 block on Saturday with Davis out of the lineup. However, he is facing a Warriors team that is often hard on opposing centers, in a game that has blowout potential.
Rudy Gobert is questionable to play on Monday, but that would be huge news, as he was expected to be out another 1-3 weeks with his knee injury. He did participate in light practice on Sunday, but keep an eye out as to whether he actually returns on Monday. Even if he does, he likely would have some sort of decreased role initially, but any minutes he plays could cut into the time/role of the recently rejuvenated Derrick Favors.
