The Boston Celtics have the best record in the NBA, and currently reside in the top seed in the Eastern Conference. On Monday, they played against one of the hot young teams in the conference, the Milwaukee Bucks. As is often the case, the NBA billed this game as a marquee matchup of superstars: Kyrie "The Masked Man" Irving of the Celtics vs. Giannis "The Greek Freak" Antetokounmpo. And neither superstar disappointed, as Antetokounmpo turned in 40 points and nine boards in a loss. As for the Masked Man:
32 points (13-24 FG, 4-5 FT), 4 rebounds, 2 3-pointers, 2 steals, 1 assist, 3 TO
This was Irving's fifth game of 30 or more points in his past nine outings, and he shot at least 54 percent from the field in each of those games. This is why the Celtics brought him in this season, and why he's considered the superstar of the team. But, he hardly did it alone.
Rookie Jayson Tatum knocked down four 3-pointers on his way to 17 points (5-6 FG, 3-4 FT) and six rebounds. Tatum leads the entire NBA in 3-point percentage, as a rookie.
The other young wing for the Celtics, Jaylen Brown, was also solid with 8 points (4-9 FG), 7 rebounds, 2 assists and 1 turnover. Nothing spectacular, but still contributing even when not putting up big scoring numbers.
And then there's Al Horford. While the young wings have been a revelation since Gordon Hayward went down, and Irving is considered the face and superstar of the team, it can be strongly argued that Horford is the most valuable Celtic. On Monday, this was Horford's line:
20 points (8-10 FG, 3-4 FT), 9 rebounds, 8 assists, 1 block, 1 3-pointer, 2 TO, +21
In addition to the outstanding near triple-double, that last number helps illustrate Horford's value to the Celtics. On Monday, the Celtics outscored the Bucks by 21 points in the 35 minutes that Horford was on the court, but they were outscored by 10 points in the 13 minutes that he sat. This +/- footprint dwarfed that of his fellow primary starters Tatum (+8 on court), Brown (+6 on court) or Irving (+0 on court) on Monday.
However, a quick perusal of season values shows that Monday wasn't an isolated incident, but instead a symptom of the trend. For the season, Horford measures out with, by far, the best on-court/off-court +/- profile among the Celtics' starters:
Horford: +12.1 per 100 possessions on court, +13.0 per 100 possessions on/off
Brown: +9.5 on court, +6.5 on/off
Tatum: +6.8 on court, -0.9 on/off
Irving: +6.7 on court, -1.0 on/off
These numbers indicate that, while the Celtics have a very positive scoring margin when any of their four main starters are on the court, the margin is clearly the best when Horford is playing. Similarly, the team's scoring margin is 13 points better per 100 possessions when Horford is on the court than when he is off, again by-far the best mark among the starters.
On Monday, Horford's box score line demonstrated several of the many ways that he is so valuable. He was one of the leading scorers on the team with high efficiency scoring, but he was also the leading rebounder. He was, by far, the leader in assists in the starting lineup, indicating that the team was running a lot of the offense through him. He knocked down a trey, showing that he can space the floor on offense. And his blocked shot was just a small sample of why he is valuable as a defender as well.
In short, it is Irving whose name is in lights and who may find himself in the NBA MVP conversation at the end of the season. But almost a third of a way into the season, it's Horford that is actually the MVP of the team.
Fantasywise, Irving currently sits at No. 11 on the Player Rater with Horford right behind at 19th, so they'll likely battle all season long as the Celtics' fantasy MVP.
Monday recap
Box scores
Highlights:
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks: 40 points (14-24 FG, 12-14 FT), 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 TO
Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns: 46 points (17-32 FG, 7-8 FT), 8 rebounds, 5 3-pointers, 2 steals, 1 assist, 1 block, 3 TO
Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers: 20 points (9-18 FG, 2-2 FT), 8 rebounds, 7 assists, 6 steals, 3 TO
Dwyane Wade, Cleveland Cavaliers: 24 points (9-13 FG, 5-5 FT), 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 3-pointer
E'Twaun Moore, New Orleans Pelicans: 27 points (11-18 FG, 0-1 FT), 6 rebounds, 5 3-pointers, 2 assists, 1 steal, 5 TO
Lowlights:
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves: 7 points (2-6 FG, 2-2 FT), 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 3-pointer, 1 block, 38 min
Enes Kanter, New York Knicks: 7 points (3-8 FG, 1-1 FT), 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 personal foul, 19 min
Mason Plumlee, Denver Nuggets: 3 points (1-2 FG, 1-6 FT), 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 block, 2 TO, 19 min
Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards: 11 points (4-15 FG, 3-5 FT), 1 rebound, 1 assist, 1 TO
Monday takeaways
Antetokounmpo had a huge scoring night with 40 points on extremely high efficiency. However, he had zero steals, zero blocks and five fouls in a loss to a conference rival. With Eric Bledsoe in the fold and Khris Middleton playing well, the argument could be made that the Bucks need Antetokounmpo's defense more than they need his offense. This is worth thinking about/noting in season-long leagues, because it's the kind of impetus that the Bucks and Antetokounmpo could notice, and perhaps modify their approach around, as the season goes along.
Booker is in a scoring zone right now, having scored more than 30 points in three of his past four games, including his season-high 46 on Monday. He's not alone, as TJ Warren also dropped 25 points (12-19 FG) on Monday, his third game of 19 or more in his past four outings. Tyler Ulis (available in 95.4 percent of leagues) had a strong game as well, playing 37 minutes and notching a 12-point, 12-assist double-double while Mike James (contract expiring) played only five minutes.
Simmons and Joel Embiid (22 points, 7-18 FG, 8-8 FT, 12 rebounds, 4 blocks, 2 assists) compete for best line just about every game. It could have gone either way on Monday, but Simmons earned the honors by coming within shouting distance of a quadruple-double.
Wade (available in 25.4 percent of leagues) didn't have the most impressive line on the Cavaliers on Monday ... that would have gone to one of the usual suspects of Kevin Love (24 points, 13 rebounds, 3 3-pointers) or LeBron James (23 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, 2 3-pointers). However, Wade has been playing very well off the bench, and it needs to be acknowledged. Wade just capped a week in which he averaged 19 points (7.3-12.3 FGA, 3.3-4 FTA), 3.8 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.8 steals, 1.3 3-pointers and 1.0 blocks over four games.
Moore (available in 93.6 percent of leagues) was not the only Pelican to have a big night on Monday, but he earned this spot by dint of being the most widely available in leagues. The Pelicans actually are being led by their perimeter players this week, with Anthony Davis (pelvis) out injured. Jrue Holiday (34 points, 13-21 FG, 4-5 FT, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 4 3-pointers, 1 steal) seems to be relishing his role as a primary scorer from the wing while Rajon Rondo (10 points, 11 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals) has taken over as the full-time floor general.
Towns managed only seven points on only six field goal attempts on Monday, capping a four-game stretch during which he has averaged only 14 points on 10.8 field goal attempts. Some of his struggles on Monday were due to him facing former Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol and the tough Memphis Grizzlies defense, but a bigger part was due to lack of shots. Meanwhile, Jimmy Butler scored 30 points (11-21 FG, 6-7 FT) with 5 rebounds, 4 steals, 2 rebounds and 2 3-pointers on the night to cap a four-game stretch during which he has averaged 26 points on 17.3 field goal attempts and 7.3 free throw attempts. The Timberwolves need to find a balance where both of their best players are able to be featured at the same time.
Kanter entered Monday on a roll, averaging 20 points and 15 rebounds in his previous two games as the main interior presence with Kristaps Porzingis (ankle) out. He took a big step back on Monday, but that was symptomatic of the Indiana Pacers blitzing the Knicks as the entire starting lineup struggled and played sparse minutes. This opened it up for the Knicks' bench, specifically Willy Hernangomez (14 points, 7-10 FG, 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 TO, 17 min) to play extra minutes and produce.
Plumlee is the man in the middle with Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap out, but the Nuggets went away from their interior game almost entirely on Monday and played small. They got a combined 66 points from perimeter players Will Barton, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris, while Plumlee spent the majority of the game on the bench.
Beal struggled again on Monday, this time in a Wizards blowout loss to the Jazz. Beal was expected to flourish as "the man" in Washington with John Wall injured, but instead, he has been held to 11 or fewer points on less than 37 percent shooting from the field in three of his past four games.
Injuries of note
Stephen Curry went for a steal late in the game, missed, and completely rolled his right ankle. The severity of the sprain isn't yet known, but he was seen leaving the arena on crutches. X-rays were negative, but this is the same ankle that he used to have so much trouble with as a younger player, and that he had surgery on in 2012, so this is definitely worth keeping a serious eye on.
Once again, a Warrior is in this space for getting ejected. Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins were both ejected on Monday for an extended argument/mock-fighting session. This was the third time in the lpast 18 games that Durant was ejected, and the Warriors as a team have had a rash of ejections lately, but there doesn't seem to be any reason to believe that suspensions will ensue for either Durant or Cousins.
James' two-way contract expires on December 6. This means that, if the Suns want to keep him beyond Wednesday, they have to free up a roster spot and come to a new agreement with James. James is one of only two point guards on the team, which would suggest that they should work something out, but for right now his future with the team is an unknown.
Kemba Walker returned from a two-game injury absence (shoulder) with a bang, scoring 29 points (7-16 FG, 14-14 FT) with 7 assists, 3 steals, 2 rebounds, a 3-pointer, a blocked shot and 0 turnovers. While we're here with the Charlotte Hornets, I'd also like to point out that I just watched a highlight of Dwight Howard knocking down an 18-foot jumper from the elbow. Then, in the next highlight, Howard crossed up Nikola Vucevic off the dribble, buckling his ankles and making him fall as Howard drove to the rim for a layup. I don't even have a joke here, but yeah ... that just happened.
Rudy Gobert returned early from his knee injury, three weeks into what was initially projected as a four-to-six week recovery time. He started and played 21 minutes, scoring four points with 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks and a steal in his return. The bigger fantasy story for the Jazz on Monday was the play of Alec Burks (27 points, 9-13 FG, 6-6 FT, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 3-pointers, 1 steal; available in 81.8 percent of leagues) off the bench while Rodney Hood (ankle) is out.
Analytics advantage for Tuesday
There are only three games on Tuesday, which means that having players in the highest scoring game of the day could be very beneficial. Generally speaking, teams that play fast have more possessions in a game, and have more opportunity to score (or produce other fantasy-worthy statistics) -- we refer to this as "pace."
On Tuesday, one game stands out from the others, pace-wise. Here are the pace statistics for all six teams playing on Tuesday, given by rank in the NBA and average number of possessions per game:
Phoenix Suns (third, 102.6 possessions per game) at Toronto Raptors (12th, 97.8)
Utah Jazz (27th, 95.2) at Oklahoma City Thunder (20th, 96.5),
Washington Wizards (16th, 96.9) at Portland Trail Blazers (15th, 97.1)
The Suns play, by far, the fastest pace of the six teams, but their Tuesday opponent (Raptors) is second. Thus, it seems likely that this will be the fastest-paced game of the night with a good chance to produce the most fantasy statistics.
Top players to watch tonight
Keep an eye on the Thunder on Turesday, specifically on Carmelo Anthony. Anthony is coming off consecutive single-digit scoring efforts for the first time in his career, but the Thunder are 2-0 in those games after struggling for much of the season. It's a tiny sample size but worth watching on Tuesday to see if the trend of Anthony shooting less to allow his teammates to got off continues.
The Raptors' backcourt against the Suns wings. As pointed out in the analytics section above, this is likely to be the fastest-paced game of the night. And both teams concentrate their offense into two players: Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan for the Raptors, and Booker and Warren for the Suns. The Suns are on the second half of a back-to-back, and both Booker and Warren were huge on Monday. Can they do it again, and match shots with their counterparts for the Raptors?
