As I've mentioned before, I get a lot of questions on Twitter (@ProfessorDrz). A popular subject this season has been Victor Oladipo, and if he's real. I've been asked should he be traded for, I've been asked if he should be traded away before he cools off, and I've been asked point blank if his hot start is a mirage. Here's an example of one of those questions, from last week, as well as my answer:
Always hard to tell a breakout from a hot start, but Dipo has all the hallmarks of a breakout. #2 overall pick, been in league a few years now, new situation, they rely on him to produce & it's been 1/3 of season. Looks real. If trade, aim for 2nd/3rd round value at worst
- Andre Snellings (@ProfessorDrz) December 6, 2017
As I told Miles, it's hard to tell, but Oladipo certainly shows all the signs of being a real breakout guy. He was the second overall pick in the 2013 NBA Draft, and many at the time thought he should go No. 1 (and considering the top pick was Anthony Bennett, who has had trouble even staying in the NBA, the "many" were right).
His upside comp at the time was Dwyane Wade, but the Orlando Magic tried to make him into a point guard. He averaged 17.9 points, 4.1 assists, 4.2 rebounds and 1.7 steals as a second-year player, even trying to play out of position, but he didn't seem to make much progress going into his third season and was then traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
In Oklahoma City, Oladipo tried to be the scoring lieutenant to the highest-usage player in the history of the game in Russell Westbrook. But Oladipo is not a pure shooter, nor is he an off-ball player, so that fit was going to be shaky at best. His production stayed relatively the same as the season before, but he did show occasional hints that he had explosive potential.
Fast-forward to this season; Oladipo was traded to the Indiana Pacers as part of the package for Paul George, and he finds himself as the offensive centerpiece for the Pacers, in the same state where he played his college basketball.
Oladipo is in his fifth season and is 25 years old, so he's approaching the age when players start achieving their peaks, and he's got quite a bit of experience to lean on now. The Pacers need his scoring, they need his play-making, and they are trusting him more and more to carry the load for them.
So when I see his line from Sunday: 47 points (15-28 FG, 11-13 FT), 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 6 3-pointers, 2 steals, 1 block, 4 TO ... it just tells me that Oladipo is in his wave right now, and he frankly shows absolutely no sign of slowing down.
In fact, with Sunday's career game capping a five-game run during which he averaged 31.8 points, 7 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 4.4 3-pointers, 2 steals and 1.2 blocks, he actually appears to be ramping up. Put it all together, and this guy looks legit.
I advised Miles to take nothing worse than second- or third-round value for him in a trade, but that may be too conservative. If someone isn't talking first- or early-second-round value, I think I pass for now. It appears to me that Oladipo really is making the leap.
Sunday recap
Box scores
Highlights:
Maximilian Kleber, Dallas Mavericks: 16 points (6-9 FG, 1-2 FT), 5 rebounds, 3 3-pointers, 1 assist, 1 block, 0 TO
Zach Randolph, Sacramento Kings: 19 points (9-11 FG, 0-2 FT), 11 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 3-pointer, 1 steal, 3 TO
Trey Lyles, Denver Nuggets: 25 points (9-15 FG, 2-2 FT), 5 3-pointers, 5 rebounds, 1 steal, 2 TO
JJ Redick, Philadelphia 76ers: 28 points (8-14 FG, 9-9 FT), 3 3-pointers, 4 assists, 3 rebounds, 3 TO
Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans: 34 points (11-21 FG, 7-8 FT), 5 assists, 5 3-pointers, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 6 TO
Lowlight:
Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons: 6 points (1-5 FG, 4-6 FT), 15 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 TO
Sunday takeaways
Kleber (available in 99.1 percent of leagues) earns this spot on the strength of how sparsely he is owned ... and frankly, because many people probably haven't noticed that he exists, let alone that he is starting for the Mavericks. But he is -- he has started three straight games -- and is projecting as a solid double-digit scoring threat with 3-point range who has some upside as a young player whom the lottery-bound Mavericks are already starting to develop for the future.
Randolph (available in 30.2 percent of leagues) flat out should be owned and starting in every league for as long as he is playing like this. He is averaging 23.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.0 steals and 1.6 3-pointers during his past five games and is showing no signs of slowing for at least as long as Willie Cauley-Stein (back) remains sidelined.
Lyles (available in 97.7 percent of leagues) scored a career-high 25 points in 26 minutes off the bench on Sunday. He took the majority of the center minutes from starter Mason Plumlee (7 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 block, 1 steal in 21 minutes) and flashed the hot hand to lead the Nuggets in scoring despite strong games from Will Barton (21 points, 9 assists, 6 rebounds), Gary Harris (21 points, 5 rebounds, 3 3-pointers) and Wilson Chandler (18 points, 8 rebounds,3 3-pointers). Lyles has been up and down while Nikola Jokic (ankle, day-to-day) has been out, so he may struggle to produce relevant stats once Jokic returns. Chandler (available in 65.3 percent of leagues), on the other hand, could have longer-term upside because his production on Sunday was closer to what was expected from him during the offseason.
Redick (available in 45.6 percent of leagues) has been getting good volume looks of late, and playing off of the young superstars in Philadelphia, he's getting outstanding shots. During his past five games, Redick is averaging 21 points (51.5 FG%, 96 FT%), 3.2 assists, 2.6 3-pointers, 1.8 rebounds and 0.8 steals per game. The scoring volume may be unsustainable with so many mouths to feed in Philadelphia, especially if Markelle Fultz is able to return from injury in the near future, but his efficiency should be a long-term thing with all of the other defense-magnets in his lineup.
Holiday continued his run as a primary scorer for the Pelicans on Sunday, leading the team with 34 points even in a game when Anthony Davis was back in the lineup and combining for 52 points with DeMarcus Cousins. Holiday has embraced the primary perimeter-scorer role, with Rondo (18 assists on Sunday) as the main floor general, and even E'Twaun Moore (14 points, 3 rebounds) remained functional as a starter as the Pelicans try to solidify a productive starting unit.
Drummond battled teammate Reggie Jackson (2 points, 0-9 FG, 2-2 FT, 1 rebound, 3 assists, 2 steals) for this spot as a lowlight, but earns it by dint of the higher expectations. The last time he faced the Boston Celtics on November 27, Drummond dominated to the tune of 26 points (10-12 FG, 6-8 FT), 22 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 steals. On Sunday, the Celtics swung their entire defense around with double-teams and hedges to prevent Drummond from getting going. The way that a team would generally prevent that is by having their point guard take advantage of the unbalanced defense to score in other ways, but Jackson's off day prevented that. The Celtics are one of the top defenses in the league, though, so this game doesn't project forward for most teams, as most can't defend at this level.
Injuries of note
Joel Embiid sat out Sunday with a sore back. He was expected to play on Sunday after sitting out Saturday for rest purposes, and he was a full participant in the pregame warmups before taking a seat. This is worth keeping an eye on for multiple reasons, not least of which that the 76ers play only twice this week, so players in weekly transaction leagues will have a big decision to make as far as whether to start him or sit him. Embiid's absence on Sunday opened things up for Trevor Booker to score 16 points with nine rebounds in 25 minutes off the bench.
Davis returned from his adductor injury on Friday with a light game, but stepped up his production on Sunday with a huge game, scoring 29 points with 8 rebounds, 5 blocks, 4 assists, 1 3-pointer and a steal in 40 minutes. However, there was a scary note, as he came down awkwardly with 9:15 left in the fourth quarter, visibly winced and shook his head while moving slowly as though in pain. Davis did stay in the game, so perhaps it is fine, but I suggest keeping an eye on his availability ahead of Monday's game.
Analytics advantage for Monday
An interesting mirrored shooting effect is going on in Oakland tonight. The Golden State Warriors average 12.4 3-pointers per game this season, second in the NBA only to the Houston Rockets. Meanwhile, the Trail Blazers allow the fewest opponent-made 3-pointers in the NBA at only 8.6 made per game. Something has to give here, and with Stephen Curry still out, it would seem that the Trail Blazers' defense should have the advantage in this battle, and that perhaps this isn't a day to expect (relatively) strong perimeter scoring from the Warriors.
Top players to watch tonight
The Pelicans' backcourt against the Rockets. Holiday has scored 27 or more points in three of his past four games, and Rondo has double-digit assists in four of his past five outings. Rondo also has a long-standing cold rivalry with Chris Paul, going back to Rondo's days as a Celtic, when there were persistent rumors that he would be traded for Paul. The Rockets can be hard on teams, but the Pelicans' backcourt is still relatively affordable in DFS leagues and potentially has the ability to continue to produce.
Danilo Gallinari popped for 25 points and helped lead the LA Clippers to a win in his second game back from a long injury absence. As the lead forward offensive initiator for the team in the absence of Blake Griffin, Gallinari could prove to be a strong source of offense for moderate DFS prices. But keep in mind, he's had only one good game so far, so there is an element of risk in relying upon him.
