This week is a big one for players returning from injury to change the fantasy landscape, and Tuesday's action epitomized this with several key performances. Let's take a closer look at those returns, and what they should mean to their teams' fantasy prospects moving forward.
Hassan Whiteside had been sidelined for the entire month of December with a sore knee, but he returned on Tuesday with a solid line of 7 points (3-8 FG, 1-2 FT), 8 rebounds, 1 steal and 1 TO in 18 minutes. Whiteside is the centerpiece, pun intended, to everything that the Heat do on both defense and offense. When he's healthy, he cleans the glass and helps lock down the lane defensively, which allows their perimeter players to be more aggressive on defense (potentially more steals) while also expending less energy at that end of the court which could potentially help their offense.
Goran Dragic, for example, averaged 17.2 points on 43.6 FG, 39.7 3-point percentage, and 81 FT percentage in 15 November games, most of which were next to Whiteside, while those numbers plummeted to 13 points on 38.5 FG percentage, 25.7 3-point percentage and 66.7 FT percentage in 10 December games while Whiteside was out. He dealt with some injuries in that stretch as well, but might the big man's return help Dragic return to his normal form? Also, more directly, Whiteside's return likely means that Kelly Olynyk's and Bam Adebayo's time as a fantasy impact players likely end soon, especially once James Johnson returns and takes up more of the big man minutes.
Devin Booker returned from a nine-game absence due to an adductor injury, and he looked as though he never left. On Tuesday, Booker exploded for 32 points (9-21 FG, 11-12 FT), 6 assists, 5 rebounds, 3 3-pointers, 1 steal and 5 TO in 34 minutes while leading the Suns to a rare win over the Grizzlies. As one might expect, Booker's return seemed to most directly affect T.J. Warren, who managed 17 points but with zero of any other fantasy counting category, after averaging 24.3 points, 8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks in his previous three games with Booker sidelined.
However, Warren showed before that he can still have dominant offensive performances while playing with Booker, they are just more sporadic and harder to predict. Kawhi Leonard has been working his way back up to speed for the last couple of weeks, but on Tuesday had his best game of the season as his minutes restriction relaxed slightly, scoring 21 points (8-17 FG, 3-4 FT) with 2 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 3-pointers and a team-high plus/minus mark of +18 in 26 minutes. Leonard's return as the franchise centerpiece will affect the entire team, and in a hugely positive way in real-life. In fantasy, his return to primacy likely causes LaMarcus Aldridge's production to take a big step backwards. Aldridge has been enjoying a bounce-back season after last year's disappointments, and he still has the upside to be better than last year, but he's probably the Spurs player that takes the biggest hit when they go back to running everything through Leonard.
Monday recap
Box scores
Highlights:
Tobias Harris, Detroit Pistons: 30 points (10-11 FG, 3-4 FT), 7 3-pointers, 6 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 assist, 1 TO
Kris Dunn, Chicago Bulls: 20 points (9-17 FG, 2-4 FT), 12 assists, 4 steals, 2 blocks, 2 rebounds, 4 TO
Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns: 32 points (9-21 FG, 11-12 FT), 6 assists, 5 rebounds, 3 3-pointers, 1 steal, 5 TO
Lowlights:
Victor Oladipo, Indiana Pacers: 13 points (5-11 FG, 1-2 FT), 3 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 2 3-pointers, 1 rebound, 2 TO
DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors: 8 points (3-16 FG, 2-3 FT), 5 assists, 3 rebounds, 2 steals, -3, 35 minutes
Zach Randolph, Sacramento Kings: 9 points (4-for-14 FG, 1-2 FT), 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal
DeMarre Carroll, Brooklyn Nets: 2 points (1-10 FG), 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, 1 TO
Monday takeaways
In the "Analytics advantage" section of yesterday's article, we pointed out that the Orlando Magic are terrible defensively on the perimeter, and suggested streaming Heat perimeter players. That played out on the court on Tuesday, as all three of the streamable recommended perimeter guys played at least 30 minutes and produced solid numbers in Josh Richardson (20 points, 8-14 FG, 4-4 FT, 7 rebounds, 5 assists, 1 steal), Wayne Ellington (18 points, 6-11 FG, 0-1 FT, 6 3-pointers, 6 rebounds, 2 steals, 1 assist) and Tyler Johnson (17 points, 5-16 FG, 6-6 FT, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 1 block, 1 3-pointer, 1 TO).
Harris exploded from the opening tip on Tuesday, as he scored 21 points in the first quarter to outscore the entire Indiana Pacers team! The Pistons' offense as a whole can be up-and-down, but Harris and Andre Drummond (21 points, 9-13 FG, 3-4 FT, 18 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 3 TO on Tuesday) are by-far the two most consistent producers, especially when things are going right.
Dunn bounced back from his worst game in weeks with a strong effort on Tuesday. And as the point guard, his strong game led to opportunities for his team to put numbers on the board. But in this case, it was the bench mob that did the most damage for the Bulls. This effort was led by the Nikola Mirotic (available in 32.5 percent of leagues) and Bobby Portis (available in 29.5 percent of leagues) combo again, with Mirotic popping for a team-high 24 points (9-18 FG, 2-4 FT), 8 rebounds, 4 3-pointers and an assist while Portis flirted with a double-double with 9 points (4-9 FG, 1-2 FT), 8 rebounds, 1 steal and 1 assist with a (by-far) team-high plus-minus of +26. Lauri Markkanen's presence makes it difficult to fully depend on either Mirotic or Portis on a nightly basis, but they clearly have upside on any given night.
Injuries of note
Reggie Jackson rolled his ankle and left in 3rd quarter on Tuesday night. The X-Rays taken after the game were negative, but his reaction to the injury suggest that the sprain could be significant. His timetable hasn't been released yet, but if he misses time it is Ish Smith (available in 95.4 percent of leagues) that is most likely to get the biggest boost.
Analytics advantage for Wednesday
The Atlanta Hawks allow opponents to score with an Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG percentage, scoring efficiency with 3-pointers factored in) of 54.6 percent, the worst mark in the NBA. In addition, the Hawks have the worst defensive rebound percentage in the league at 74.1 percent, meaning that opponents are able to strongly crash the offensive glass against them.
Put those things together, and it is unsurprising that opposing big men tend to have big performances against the Hawks. The Wizards have three big men who average between 19 and 28 minutes per game who could thus be streamable on Wednesday, led by Marcin Gortat (available in 22.6 percent of leagues), Markieff Morris (available in 72.9 percent of leagues), and possibly even Mike Scott (available in 91.8 percent of leagues).
Top players to watch tonight
In his last seven games, Russell Westbrook is averaging 28.9 points, 10.1 assists, 9.4 rebounds, 2.4 steals, and 3.4 turnovers while shooting 51 percent from the field and 72 percent from the line. His Wednesday opponents, the Toronto Raptors, have stingily allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing point guards of the season, but have struggled in their last five games to allow the ninth-most fantasy points to the position in that stretch. Which dynamic will hold true on Wednesday? Even at their best, could the Raptors slow Russell at the level that he's playing now?
Stephen Curry had his ankle re-evaluated on Tuesday, and he is out until at least Friday. Kevin Durant had gone nuts in the first five games that Curry sat, averaging 34.2 points, 10.4 boards, 7.4 assists, 3.2 3-pointers and 3 blocks in those games. However, he has cooled in his last four games, with "only" one game over 25 points, no double-digit rebound efforts, and only one game with over three assists. Some of that is due to the return of Draymond Green three games ago, who notched a triple-double in their last outing on Christmas day. Can Durant come through with another huge performance on Wednesday, before Curry's return, against a Jazz team that has struggled to allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards in the last 10 games?
