Which players should you build around, and which players should you fade in DFS as we tip off Thursday's NBA action? Our experts have the answers.
Today's panel includes ESPN Fantasy's Joe Kaiser, Andre Snellings, Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe, plus DFS expert Renee Miller.
Players to build around
Jim McCormick -- Jimmy Butler, Minnesota Timberwolves
I don't think the market is appropriately appreciating Butler's surge in opportunity and efficiency over the past month. He's averaged 1.16 fantasy points per minute this month compared to .96 through November. His usage rate was somewhat modest at 22.3 percent, with sluggish shooting (53.7 true shooting clip) through November. But he's handled a 26.8 usage rate with a clean 61.6 true shooting rate in December.
The absence of Jeff Teague could fuel Butler with more touches and increased distribution duties. The Bucks have softened a bit against opposing small forwards, allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the position on FanDuel over the past week. Butler's usage profile now approximates last season's coveted workload in Chicago, but his price is still that of a mid-tier wing.
Kyle Soppe -- Eric Bledsoe, Milwaukee Bucks
I've always been a believer in Bledsoe's talent, and I think it is bubbling just beneath the surface with the potential to explode in a spot like this. Over his past three games, he is averaging more than 20 points per game while posting at least five rebounds and five assists in each one of those games -- a level of versatility that makes his floor an appealing one. The Timberwolves defense has yet to lock in, and while they've won five straight games, they aren't slowing the opposition even a little (109.2 points per game allowed over that stretch). With the Wolves ranking 23rd in preventing paint scoring, they will likely struggle with the uber-athletic Bledsoe. Lock him in tonight and thank me later.
Andre Snellings -- Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
Joel Embiid has missed five of the past 11 games that the Philadelphia 76ers played, and in another of those games, he played only 22 minutes as he worked through injury. However, in the past five games he played, these were his stat lines:
• 22 points, 12 rebounds, 4 blocks, 2 assists • 33 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 5 blocks, 1 steal • 28 points, 12 rebounds, 8 assists, 1 block • 34 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 blocks • 25 points, 16 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks
Embiid is back at practice, which bodes well for his current status. Meanwhile, his Thursday opponents, the Portland Trail Blazers, have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing centers in the NBA over the past five games.
Joe Kaiser -- Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks
Middleton continues to be one of the most underappreciated fantasy stars in the game, averaging 23 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1 steal in 12 games this month. Minnesota ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, allowing 108 points per 100 possessions. And even though the Timberwolves have limited shooting guards and small forwards in DFS over the past 10 games, Middleton has a high floor on a short five-game slate.
Renee Miller -- Ish Smith, Detroit Pistons
Reggie Jackson suffered a serious ankle sprain Wednesday night, paving the way for Smith to take over at the point. He's particularly enticing tonight for his low salary and league-best PG matchup with the Orlando Magic. Smith has proven his effectiveness in the past when given the opportunity to lead the Pistons and should take advantage of a solid pace upgrade tonight. Playing just over 20 minutes per game normally, Smith has scored double-digit points with 3-4 rebounds and assists in each of the past three games. With PG being muddied by injuries, turning to the affordable Smith allows you to mix in James Harden with one of the top center plays.
Players to avoid
Jim McCormick -- Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic Due to return from a multiweek injury tonight after participating fully in practice on Wednesday, Gordon's price is $100 lower than Butler's on DraftKings, yet he delivers far less cost certainty and even a lower ceiling in his first game back from injury. I'm generally conservative on players reintegrating after a long absence, especially with Gordon facing a solid Detroit defense and when pricing peers such as Butler present far better value.
Kyle Soppe -- James Harden, Houston Rockets
Let me preface this by saying that Harden is amazing. He's better than I ever thought he could be, and his production up to this point is no fluke. I pay him those compliments in advance of saying that I'm not paying this much of a premium for his services tonight against the second-most-efficient defense in the NBA. After Giannis Antetokounmpo (who plays the sixth-worst defense in the Timberwolves tonight), Harden is priced 18.8 percent ahead of any other player on DraftKings, meaning he needs to be truly dominant to return value on this short slate. While he is the focus of the Celtics game plan, Andre Drummond faces the worst rebounding team in the league, and Jimmy Butler draws the most foul-prone team, something that should raise his floor. I believe Harden is a fine play, but I don't think building around him is the proper way to optimize your DFS lineup tonight.
Andre Snellings -- Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
Unlike his big teammate, Simmons has been in a bit of a funk on the court lately, relative to his norm. He has only scored more than 10 points once in his past three games and on the whole is averaging only 12.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 1.3 combined blocks/steals and 4 turnovers in that stretch. There is a notion that perhaps teams have scouted Simmons' lack of a jump shot and are using it against him more heavily, or perhaps he has hit a bit of a rookie wall. Ultimately, the expectation is that he should adjust and return to normal, but while he's working it out, he is very overpriced for his current level of production.
Joe Kaiser -- Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
Leonard isn't playing enough minutes to have the opportunity to score the DFS points needed to be worthy of his salary. He's cheaper on DraftKings than on FanDuel, but he's a reach on either site until he starts playing more than 25 minutes per game on a regular basis. He has yet to reach 30 DFS points in his five games played this season.
Renee Miller -- Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers
Simmons is still priced like he's putting out 50-plus fantasy points every night, but the reality is that in around 33 minutes per game over the last week, he's struggled to reach 30 fantasy points. He hasn't reached the 10-assist mark in his past four games and has scored only 51 total points in that span. His blocks and assists are also down lately. Whether it's something going on with him, or the fact that the team is healthy around him now and not playing any back-to-backs, I can't say, but Simmons no longer feels like a safe play at $9K.
To make matters worse, the 76ers face a significant pace downgrade in Portland tonight. And while Simmons is a versatile, position-less player to some extent, the Trail Blazers are the league's worst matchup for both point guards and power forwards. They are a top-5 team in defensive efficiency, which makes spending on Simmons, rather than on Harden or one of the top centers, a risky move tonight.
