There has been a lot of buzz lately about how good of an NBA coach Luke Walton is or is not. However, over the past three seasons, whenever afforded a head-coaching opportunity, he has created some of fantasy's friendliest conditions. Regardless of the win-loss results, he's been a proven fantasy production magnet.
I don't remember a lot of complaints when he coached the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors -- perhaps the greatest fantasy team in the history of everything -- to a 39-4 record. While he won Coach of the Month as the team's interim leader, the Warriors led the league at 115.3 points per game. They were No. 1 in point differential at 15.4, No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 2 in pace.
That was pre-Durant and with Harrison Barnes. Walton's Warriors started 24-0, scoring 100-plus points in every game before dropping one to the Bucks. Stephen Curry turned in what could go down as the best half season in fantasy history. Yes, Walton came out of the gate the most fantasy-friendly coach in NBA history. The proof is there in the Warriors' half-season stats.
When I look at what qualifies a coach as being fantasy-friendly, I pay attention to the following five factors:
Pace: This is the volume of possessions a team generates per game. It's the most important team-wide stat when measuring fantasy performance and coaching impact. It's important because it's a two-way stat, taking into account the speed of a given team, but also the speed at which its opponents play. A team like the 2016-17 Lakers may not have been good on its own, but it was a great team to face.
Offensive rating: Points produced per 100 possessions.
Defensive rating: Points allowed per 100 possessions,
Length of rotation: This is the number of players that a team rosters who average at least 25 minutes per night. In most leagues, 25 MPG is the benchmark for when players start to look fantasy-worthy. It's a good measure of an NBA team's overall fantasy stability.
Net positive players on the ESPN Player Rater: This is another measure of a team's fantasy depth and quality. Perhaps a team spreads Player Rater value across eight, nine or even 10 players -- even if few of them, if any, score that high individually. Conversely, maybe a team is indeed more top-heavy and concentrates Player Rater value among just five or six players. That would also be a good benchmark for stability. Both cases are good for fantasy as shallow teams help owners looking for premium producers, while teams that spread out the production tend to help more on the waiver wire.
Walton's 2015-16 Warriors ranked sky-high in all five of these factors over his tenure as interim coach in what was possibly the greatest half season in fantasy history. Through 43 games, the Warriors ranked first in pace and offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency. They had five players at or above 25 minutes per game and six players combining for 65 total Player Rater points.
Cut to 2016, when Walton came to the Los Angeles Lakers. This is a project -- a rebuild with a unique first-season task. The first season has to be a tank job that ends in a top-three pick, or else it will be considered a disaster. Walton finished 26-56, which was indeed just bad enough to net the No. 2 pick. However, the 2016-17 Lakers, while tanking, still managed to help manufacture a lot of fantasy-friendly numbers.
The 2016-17 Lakers ranked sixth in pace, 24th in offensive efficiency and 30th in defensive efficiency. They had four players at or above 25 minutes per game and five players combining for 15.84 total Player Rater points.
No, this team's players weren't very good on their own fantasywise (Julius Randle was the Lakers' top player with just 4.3 PR points), but it was a dream team to play against -- high in pace and very bad on defense. The Lakers finished with a pick they didn't have to surrender, which they used to draft Lonzo Ball -- which is how Walton got into this mess in the first place.
For 2017-18 Walton makes my top-five list of the most fantasy-friendly coaches, not because of their teams' aggregate quality, but because they're such a good opponent:
Pace: 1st
Offensive rating: 28th
Defensive rating: 14th
Length of rotation: 5 players at 25-plus MPG
Net positive PR players: 8 for 24.9 total PR points
These Lakers are not very good, but they have a lot more fantasy upside than last season's squad. Thanks to their high pace, they're the best matchup in the NBA. Walton hasn't produced any high-production players, but these Lakers do roster a lot of fantasy depth in Randle, Ball, Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Brandon Ingram. Brook Lopez, Jordan Clarkson, and Larry Nance Jr.
The Lakers are also trending ever-so-slightly up. Since Walton tweaked his starting lineup, Ball, Ingram and Randle have all produced five-plus PR points. They may be showcasing Randle, but his rise in value (limited by a lack of defense numbers) has come at Kuzma's expense.
Here's the rest of the top five:
Steve Kerr, Golden State Warriors
Pace: 3rd
Offensive rating: 2nd
Defensive rating: 6th
Length of rotation: 5 players at 25-plus MPG
Net positive PR players: 9 for 60.58 total PR points
Golden State plays at a high pace with a ton of fantasy depth. They are top-heavy in terms of premium production with four players over 10.0 PR points per game. But, as good as Kerr's Warriors are, this group still doesn't match the production of Walton's 2015-16 half-season.
Brett Brown, Philadelphia 76ers
Pace: 2nd
Offensive rating: 18th
Defensive rating: 7th
Length of rotation: 5 players at 25-plus MPG
Net positive PR players: 7 for 37.59 total PR points
"The Process" was commemorated with a slew of high draft picks and a load of fantasy-friendly metrics. The 76ers of the past few seasons sought to inflate their players' stats with a high-pace attack in an attempt to boost their trade value. This season's incarnation is respectable, but the team still plays at the high pace of the peak Process era. Plus, the Sixers, of course, roster a ton of young upside.
Dwane Casey, Toronto Raptors
Pace: 10th
Offensive rating: 4th
Defensive rating: 3rd
Length of rotation: 3 players at 25-plus MPG
Net positive PR players: 9 for 35.0 total PR points
Toronto switched up its offensive philosophy this season. The Raptors are now a little more free-flowing, a little more opened-up on offense. The results were bumpy at the start, but now the Raptors have quietly become one of the NBA's best in both fantasy and reality.
Mike D'Antoni, Houston Rockets
Pace: 8th
Offensive rating: 1st
Defensive rating: 13th
Length of rotation: 9 players at 25-plus MPG
Net positive PR players: 7 for 48.72 total PR points
D'Antoni is the coach who started it all. His "seven seconds or less" teams in Phoenix basically introduced the importance of coaching philosophy to fantasy. Don't forget, he also made Jeremy Lin who he is today. His Rockets are mounting a reasonable threat to Kerr's Warriors thanks to their efficient, high-paced, fantasy-friendly offense.
Finally, here are the rest of the coaches rounding out the top 10: Kenny Atkinson, Brooklyn Nets, Alvin Gentry, New Orleans Pelicans, Jay Triano, Phoenix Suns, Tom Thibodeau, Minnesota Timberwolves, Rick Carlisle, Dallas Mavericks.
