Which players should you build around and which players should you fade in DFS as we tip off Tuesday's NBA action? Our experts have the answers.
Today's panel includes ESPN Fantasy's André Snellings and Kyle Soppe, and DFS expert Jim McCormick.
Players to build around
Andre Snellings -- Jimmy Butler, Minnesota Timberwolves
Butler has been the man in the Timberwolves offense for quite awhile now. During the past 15 games, he has averaged 25.3 points (51.1 FG%, 89.4 FT%) with 5.7 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 2.2 steals, 1.2 3-pointers and only 2.3 steals per game. The Magic, meanwhile, have struggled against opposing wings defensively of late, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to small forwards and the seventh-most to shooting guards during the past five games.
Kyle Soppe -- Bismack Biyombo, Orlando Magic
With Nikola Vucevic (hand) sidelined until February, Biyombo's playing time is safe and his price point has yet to rise enough to make me comfortable in fading him. A double-double is really all you need to get tonight to obtain value, and given that the Timberwolves have given up four point/rebound double-doubles during their five-game win streak, I'll take my chances on a player in Biyombo, who doesn't venture much from the painted area (more than 80 percent of his shots come inside of eight feet). His scoring upside is only so high given his low usage rate, but with the ability to block shots (1.9 per game since Christmas) along with reasonable touch from the free throw line (18-for-20 this month), I think him achieving value is a good bet against an average-rebounding Timberwolves team.
Jim McCormick -- Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
No other player on the slate has a ceiling as high as the Pelicans' superstar. I admire the Celtics' brilliant defensive production so far this season, but don't think they have the specific personnel to contain Davis (who does?), especially as he's averaged 38 points and nearly 62 fantasy points per game over the past three outings. Found at an awesome discount on DraftKings relative to his production pattern and potential and a palatable price on FanDuel, I'm building around the "Brow" during tonight's four-game slate.
Players to fade
Andre Snellings -- Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic
Gordon is the second-highest-priced power forward on FanDuel and the third-highest-priced on DraftKings, but he really hasn't played all that well lately. In his past three games, he has averaged 14.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.3 3-pointers, but has shot only 28.6 percent from the field. On Tuesday, he faces a Timberwolves defense that has allowed the fewest fantasy points in the NBA to opposing power forwards in the past 10 games.
Kyle Soppe -- Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
To answer your first question, yes, I am well aware that Davis went off for 48 and 17 on Sunday and poured in 36 points the game prior. Both of those games came against teams that operate at a faster pace and a lesser defensive efficiency than the Celtics, yet as a result of the massive performances, Davis' DraftKings price tag is up more than 4 percent for tonight's matchup with the top-ranked defense in all of basketball. I'm not at all suggesting that Davis isn't a fantasy star capable of beating any defense on a given night, but with all of the attention on him and his price tag on the rise, this looks like a great spot to gain leverage on the field.
The C's have had three days to prepare for this game and I'm buying the most efficient defense to limit the effectiveness of a very efficient player. Why is that? Well, Davis has become an analytics dream, as he is attempting a career-high percentage of shots from inside of eight feet and outside of 24 feet. I love that. But it shouldn't surprise you that the best defense in the NBA thrives in both of those areas, as the Celtics are allowing the fourth-fewest paint points per game while holding opponents to the second lowest 3-point percentage. You need roughly a 30-point double-double to hit value tonight and I'm not banking on that ... not to mention the lack of room to exceed value in this spot.
Jim McCormick -- Harrison Barnes, Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks are starting to unleash Dennis Smith Jr. a bit more of late, as his minutes and usage rate are quite robust over the past week. Barnes, meanwhile, has dipped below a 20 percent usage rate in two of the past three games, as he's no longer enjoying the heavy isolation work from last season. Barnes is still a capable scorer and can reasonably exceed value, but I think there is something to Smith's Westbrookian style that could see Barnes endure some uniquely low-usage outings. I'm also fading Barnes because of better values at the wing today, such as TJ Warren and even teammate Wes Matthews.
