Which players should you build around and which players should you fade in DFS as we tip off tonight's NBA action? Our experts have the answers.
Today's panel includes ESPN Fantasy's André Snellings, Kyle Soppe and Jim McCormick, as well as DFS expert Renee Miller.
Players to build around
Kyle Soppe - Paul George, Oklahoma City Thunder
While I don't think the Warriors will simply mail this game in, there is certainly no debating that Golden State is looking forward to some time off. That's a bad spot to be in against a red-hot George, who has scored 26-plus points on over-52 percent shooting in four of his past five games.
George's recent scoring binge is courtesy of that hot shooting but, in those five outings, he has also averaged 8.4 free throws per game, something that raises his floor in a nice way. Among small forwards averaging 20-plus minutes this season, only LeBron James and Kevin Durant have a higher usage rate than George, so I'll definitely put a stamp on him tonight.
André Snellings -- Kevin Durant, Golden State Warriors
Durant is facing old friend Russell Westbrook's squad on Tuesday, but the Thunder will be missing perimeter stopper Andre Roberson. With Roberson off the court this season, the Thunder are allowing 112.9 points per 48 minutes. They've definitely struggled defensively in the games since he's gone down, which opens things up for Durant to put up big numbers on Tuesday -- especially in a game that the Warriors would really like to win to break out of their recent funk.
Renee Miller -- Josh Jackson, Phoenix Suns
With Devin Booker ruled out, the emergence of Jackson takes on greater significance. He's scored 20-plus points in four consecutive games, with a total of 5 steals, 3 blocks and 17 rebounds over this stretch. His salary reflects this leap, of course, but he still has upside in a fast-paced matchup with the Lakers, a team that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wings this season.
Given that Jackson will likely be very highly-owned tonight, consider pivoting to Robert Covington of the 76ers at a similar price point in tournaments. Covington has a lot of upside in a potentially high-scoring game, and the Wizards are nearly as good a matchup for small forwards as are the Lakers.
Jim McCormick -- Mario Hezonja, Orlando Magic
Finally earning meaningful time after several dormant seasons, Hezonja has become a key offensive contributor over the past week with Aaron Gordon ailing. This gifted shooter has hit nearly 61 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc during the past four games. A healthy usage rate of 22.5 percent over this recent stretch suggests he should be busy again tonight against a soft Cleveland defense in a game with a robust projected point total currently hovering around 225 points.
Players to fade
Kyle Soppe -- Terry Rozier, Boston Celtics
Rozier has been en fuego lately, but we've reached a tipping point in my opinion. First of all, there's the obvious strain on his usage rate should Kyrie Irving -- who made the trip to Toronto - return to the court. If so, Irving figures to slide right back into his usual role, suggesting that Rozier would lead the second unit. That likely means 20-25 minutes and 8-10 shots, as opposed to the 35 minutes and 14-18 shots that he has been getting over the past week.
Even if Irving is ruled out or you believe he will be limited, I'm still not buying in. The Raptors are a top-five defense when defending point guards, and excel at limiting good looks from distance. Irving sat out the first matchup between these teams this season, a game Rozier needed 28 minutes and 15 shots just to get 16 points. I'm thinking of that game as his ceiling tonight, which is simply not appealing for me at this price point.
André Snellings -- Khris Middleton, Milwaukee Bucks
Middleton is dealing with the Bucks re-integration of Jabari Parker to their lineup at a time when Giannis Antetokounmpo and Eric Bledsoe are both back in action and/or playing through injuries. He's struggled a bit with this reality, averaging only 12.5 points, 5.0 rebounds and 3.0 assists in his last two games. He should eventually find his level, maybe even as soon as Tuesday, but there's no need to take the chance on him in DFS until things in Milwaukee stabilize.
Renee Miller - Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
My fandom isn't enough to overcome doubts about Curry's fantasy potential tonight. His recent strong play has him as the second-most expensive PG tonight, but Oklahoma City plays at a significantly slower pace and is ranked fifth overall in defensive efficiency. The Thunder also have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to point guards on the season. I'd rather pay up for Durant or save big with Zaza Pachulia, who has been surprisingly good of late and could take advantage of the Thunder's recent struggles with opposing centers. This is obviously a great game to target, but deciding which player to roll with could have a big impact on your profits tonight.
Jim McCormick -- Carmelo Anthony, Oklahoma City Thunder
I think Anthony is simply overpriced, particularly on DraftKings. His path to meeting value is too dependent on his shot falling and his price demands he surpasses 34 fantasy points. Given recent results, that's far from a sure thing. I'd rather spend similar coin on wings like Evan Fournier and TJ Warren tonight.
