Every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, we pose a question to a panel of ESPN fantasy basketball experts to gauge their thoughts on a hot topic.
Today's contributors are ESPN Fantasy's Joe Kaiser, Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe and DFS expert Renee Miller.
Considering Myles Turner had an ADP of 27 but currently ranks 75th on the Player Rater (49th, based on averages), he's been one of the bigger busts this season. What are your expectations for him the rest of the season, and do you think he'll fully break out next season?
Joe Kaiser: We are now three quarters of the way through the season, so I don't expect Turner to turn it around in the final stretch and suddenly become the fantasy force many projected him to be this season. He is what he is at this point, and that's basically a slightly better version of Serge Ibaka -- a big man who can put in about 14 points and seven rebounds a night while providing excellent shot-blocking and some 3-point shooting as well.
Victor Oladipo clearly took over this team in 2017-18, and while you can expect Turner to show improvement next season, as you would anyone in their third year in the league, it's safe to say that he will be regarded much lower in fantasy drafts with Oladipo signed through 2021.
Consider Turner in the fifth or sixth round next season, not the second or third like this season.
Jim McCormick: It was fun to see Turner turn in a significant double-double last night, but that likely was an outlier performance and not a burgeoning trend; the Pacers' pivot has averaged just nine shots over his past nine games, resulting in a modest 12.7 PPG during that sample.
Turner is converting 56.6 percent of his shots from at least 16 feet from the basket this season, compared to 43 percent last year. He's sinking just 61.4 percent of his shots from within three feet of the rim, an unacceptably low rate for a big man. This results in the profile of a stretch big who can't yet shoot efficiently.
We already saw Turner finish 20th on the Player Rater last season, so he's clearly capable of difference-making defensive results, but I'm admittedly souring on his offensive ceiling.
Renee Miller: Turner was over-drafted, it's true, but he's not a total disaster, based on what we'd seen from him at the time of the 2017-18 fantasy draft.
Last season, the then 20-year-old played an average of 31.4 MPG in 81 games. He took an average of 10.7 shots from the field, making 51.1 percent of them for an average of 14.5 PPG. In addition, he ranked fifth in the league with an average of 2.1 blocks per game to go along with 7.3 rebounds per game.
His 2017-18 stats are surprisingly similar -- 13.4 PPG on 10.1 FGA (48.6 FG%), 6.7 RPG, 2.0 BPG (fourth in the NBA this season) -- especially when you consider he's averaging just 28.1 minutes per game this season.
So you drafted him hoping for a mega jump from a promising rookie season, but he's still only 21 years old. Next season, you can probably comfortably draft him far later with somewhat more upside than he showed this season. I still believe in his talent and opportunity. Injuries have been part of the 2017-18 equation for Turner, but so have injuries to this team, and this Pacers' team identity for that matter.
Thanks mainly to Oladipo and a low number of turnovers per game (fifth fewest), Indiana ranks fifth in the league in offensive efficiency, but 19th in pace, 15th in defensive efficiency, and just 19th in rebounding rate. It's not a formula for monster games from Turner.
My outlook for the rest of the season isn't bleak, but it's nothing to get too excited about either. I think Turner will come into a few more minutes per game and finish the season with closer to 15 PPG and 8 RPG to go along with his 2 BPG. I think that's worth holding on to, particularly if you have the luxury of using him in ideal matchups in leagues that have daily lineup changes or, of course, in DFS, as his salary remains on the low end of the second tier for centers.
Kyle Soppe: Am I saddened by Turner's production this season? In a big way, but I'm not pivoting off of my belief that this kid is a future fantasy star.
His per-minute block numbers have been stable since he entered the league, and we have no real reason to think that is going to change, so let's consider his ability in that area stable.
On the offensive end, Turner is attempting to adapt to the NBA on the fly, and that is going to come with its fair share of road bumps. In addition to learning to play alongside Oladipo, Turner is expanding his range in an effort to become the well-rounded offensive monster that I am confident he will be one day.
I mean, he's shooting a cool 52.2 percent from 16-24 feet out, so there are signs of a soft touch that I believe he can pair with double-double upside sooner than later.
Having said all of that, the Pacers are battling for home court in the first round of the playoffs with Turner's role as it is, so I don't see him taking off in a major way over next month or so. But in dynasty formats? Send out an offer now ... his price isn't going to be lower over the next decade.
