Which players should you build around and which players should you fade in DFS as we tip off tonight's NBA action? Our experts have the answers.
Today's panel includes ESPN Fantasy's André Snellings and Kyle Soppe, as well as DFS expert Renee Miller.
Players to build around
Kyle Soppe - Ed Davis, Portland Trail Blazers
Davis doesn't play an exciting brand of basketball, but his fantasy stock has been on the rise. The former first-round pick averaged 5.8 rebounds per game in December, 7.6 in January, 8.4 in February, and has now quietly pulled down 21 boards in his 48 March minutes - in two games that came against above-average rebounding opponents.
With a seemingly elevated floor due to his increasing role, I'll happily take advantage of the low price tag to get some cheap exposure to the team with the highest projected point total on tonight's slate. I don't trust the Lakers to dominate the glass, as Lonzo Ball leads them in defensive rebounds per game and their best pure rebounder, Julius Randle, has just 12 boards in 67 minutes this month. With this Blazers offense rolling, I'm projecting a double-double for Davis. At this price point, that's plenty of value.
André Snellings -- Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers
Lillard will also be going up against the Lakers tonight, a team that is on fire offensively with an average of 114.4 points scored over the last 17 games. However, Los Angeles also gives major minutes to Isaiah Thomas, one of the worst defensive players in the NBA, which is a big reason the team has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards over the past five games. This bodes well for Lillard, who is quite hot as well, with five of his last nine games resulting in between 35 and 50 points scored.
Renee Miller -- James Johnson, Miami Heat
The logic behind this pick starts with the positional breakdown of the Monday slate. I want to spend on a pair of point guards -- ideally Lillard and Eric Bledsoe, though there are several other strong possibilities -- as well as one of the top stars, either LeBron James or Giannis Antetokounmpo.
We have a lot of value at SG, SF and PF, but Johnson stands out to me as being very underpriced ($4,500 FD, $4,800 DK) in a league-best PF matchup with the Suns. He and the Heat enjoy a big pace boost and are 10-point favorites at home. Johnson has played 25 and 27 minutes in his last two games, had a great game against Phoenix earlier in the season, and should start again tonight. He's easy to build around tonight, and saving at this position is the wisest place to grab a discount.
Players to fade
Kyle Soppe - Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns
Booker has been ripping the nets lately, averaging 31.1 points per game over his past seven contests. This is no fluke. That said, I'm just not paying up for him in this spot. The Heat rank as a top-10 defense that operates at a bottom-five pace. It's a tough matchup for a guard who relies on his sheer volume of attempts.
Despite the high usage rate, just two of Booker's last 59 points have come from the free throw line, something that indicates a willingness to "settle." So, should Miami dictate tempo we're talking about a very low floor. Booker's non-scoring counting numbers have been sporadic, so if a 30-point performance isn't a certainty, I'm not interested in paying top dollar here.
André Snellings -- Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic
Vucevic is a very good offensive center, and he's been playing himself back into shape over the last couple of weeks as he's returned from a hand injury. While he has been playing better, on Monday he faces "The Stifle Tower" -- a.k.a. Rudy Gobert -- and the Utah defensive frontline. The Jazz have allowed the fewest fantasy points of any team in the NBA over their last five games, leaving much better matchups to try to exploit tonight.
Renee Miller - Victor Oladipo, Indiana Pacers
Among the highest-priced players on tonight's slate, Oladipo is the one I'm least likely to roster. Both teams are on a back-to-back, but Milwaukee is a formidable matchup for opposing guards. Oladipo played 39 minutes in the close win over the Wizards yesterday and has averaged just 38 fantasy points against the Bucks this season.
There's so much attractive value at SG tonight - look to Memphis, Boston, Miami and San Antonio to name a few -- not to mention an increasingly hot CJ McCollum or the ever-steady Donovan Mitchell at mid-range prices. Basically, I can't see the logic in spending over $9K for Oladipo tonight.
