Which players should you build around and which players should you fade in DFS as we tip off tonight's NBA action? Our experts have the answers.
Today's panel includes ESPN Fantasy's Jim McCormick, André Snellings and Kyle Soppe, as well as DFS expert Renee Miller.
Players to build around
Jim McCormick -- Isaiah Thomas, Los Angeles Lakers
I didn't think I'd come back to this well again this season, but Thomas has been given the green light to shoot at will as the Lakers' offensive microwave from the bench. While Thomas hasn't been nearly as efficient as last season with Boston, he's lofted 19 shots per game with an insane usage rate of 36.9 percent over the past three outings. The Magic have yielded the sixth-most fantasy points per game to point guards and the eighth-most to shooting guards, thus this savvy combo guard is well positioned to exceed value, particularly given his modest price on DraftKings.
Renee Miller -- Kobi Simmons, Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies remain in dire injury straits tonight, and while Ben McLemore should be back, Wayne Seldon didn't do anything to impress Monday night and saw just 15 minutes despite not being on the injury report. Simmons played 26 minutes against the Spurs and managed 13 points with stats in every category. His salary is still the lowest of the bunch, and tonight he faces a faster-paced Chicago Bulls team that has been fantasy-friendly for opposing guards. Several stars are playing in the second half of a back-to-backs tonight, and/or in less than perfect matchups, which means DIVERSIFY to me. Rather than lock down one super-expensive player, I'll start with a solid cheap play who has some upside and work in James Harden, LeBron James, or Giannis Antetokounmpo around him.
André Snellings -- Julius Randle, Los Angeles Lakers
Randle has been a metronome of production over the last month, averaging 21 points with 8.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.0 steals and 0.7 blocks during his last nine games as the primary interior presence for the Lakers. He has taken full advantage of getting consistent starter minutes after Larry Nance was traded away, and shows no signs of slowing down. Meanwhile, his Wednesday opponent the Orlando Magic have struggled badly with their interior defense of late. The Magic have allowed the most fantasy points in the NBA to opposing centers over the last 10 games, and have also allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards over the last five games.
Kyle Soppe -- Bogdan Bogdanovic, Sacramento Kings
I understand that rostering a Sacramento King isn't very exciting and that targeting a red-hot Pelicans team that has won nine straight isn't your first inclination, but why not at this price point? During the win streak, New Orleans has been in this exact spot twice - that is, a game on the second night of a back-to-back against an opponent that ranks among the six least efficient offenses in the NBA - and they've allowed 116 points in both instances. I'll happily target that trend for a marksman in Bogdanovic, who is shooting 55.3 percent from the field (57.1 percent from 3) and averaging 20 points per game in the early going this month. Considering that the Kings are in the midst of a five game home stretch and have had the past two days off, I'm looking for their talented 25-year-old to be on the attack from the get-go.
Players to fade
Jim McCormick -- Bobby Portis, Chicago Bulls
With the Bulls potentially reintegrating Robin Lopez back into the rotation and with Noah Vonleh likely to etch into his opportunity rates, I'm fading Portis tonight. Portis can go off and tilt an entire tournament, but I don't think the ingredients for such an outing are in place. Among power forwards, I'd rather look to Paul Millsap or Nikola Mirotic at similar prices.
Renee Miller -- Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
The Cavaliers rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency, but they have been strangely good when it comes to limiting the production of opposing bigs. Not that Jokic needs further limiting -- he has scored in single digits in three straight games and is not even attempting half his normal shot volume. His peripherals aren't too far off, but his poor shooting, in combination with the return of Paul Millsap, had him on the court for just 26 minutes last night. Seeing him still over $9K is too much for me tonight. There are many options at his position on this slate (Julius Randle, Rudy Gobert, Marc Gasol, Nikola Vucevic and Clint Capela are all less expensive), but even if you have the salary for Jokic, use it somewhere else or leave it on the table.
André Snellings -- Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets
I'm going back to the well here, as I also faded Jokic yesterday. The logic is the same, that Jokic has struggled mightily in the last (now) four games as the Nuggets reintegrate Paul Millsap into the lineup. Millsap has been playing over 20 minutes per game since his return last week, and just moved back into the starting lineup on Tuesday. Jokic will eventually come out of his slump, but he's still priced at the very top of most DFS sites and he hasn't produced at that level in more than a week. While it's possible that tonight is the night that it clicks again for Jokic, there are enough other impact players with better short-term track records that have higher probabilities of success.
Kyle Soppe -- Blake Griffin, Detroit Pistons
Griffin's high usage of late may have you willing to roll the dice on him against the third most efficient defense in basketball, but I'm going to pass. He had all of one rebound in 33 minutes of action when these two teams squared off less than two weeks ago, and while I don't think his production dips to that point again, there is something to be said for Detroit's game plan that allowed Andre Drummond to snare 18 boards in that contest. Griffin is distancing himself more from the rim (his average shot distance sits at a career-high 12.3 feet, up 20.8 percent from last season) and not only does that lower his rebounding floor, but it also makes his scoring more volatile. Need proof? Check out his past five games: three games with 12 or fewer points and two games with 25-plus. So ... how lucky do you feel?
