On a Tuesday night in the NBA that saw all four favorites cruise to victory, the compelling news of the evening was a report from ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski detailing the Memphis Grizzlies' willingness to listen to trade offers for their franchise cornerstones, Mike Conley and Marc Gasol.
Even at 34, Gasol is posting his best rebounding numbers since 2011-12, career highs in assists and steals, and is ranked 10th among centers on the Player Rater for the season. Conley, for his part, is producing the second-most points per game of his career and has sustained a valuable blend of steals, dimes and 3-pointers to rank seventh on the Player Rater among point guards. Despite these productive vets proving healthy for much of the season, Memphis has lost six straight games and 12 of their past 13.
How should we approach this duo in fantasy? For those who don't have any shares, I'd inquire with managers of either to gauge the price. Some fantasy managers might not feel comfortable embracing the uncertainty of Memphis' current situation, thus the asking price might not match the actual production of two top-10 assets at their respective positions.
For those who have shares of either or both grizzled vets, I'd ride this hand out; given max salaries for each, either Conley or Gasol would almost surely land in a spot prepared to feature them at a comparable or arguably greater rate than in Memphis. If, say, the Pistons or Magic pursue Conley as the answer to their respective droughts at the point guard position, you'd assume they'd hand the keys to Conley going forward. The Grizzlies are 27th in pace and last in offensive efficiency, so it might be an upgrade in scheme and peers in almost any trade scenario.
A fun nugget of Woj's piece is that Memphis is motivated to shape the roster around gifted rookie Jaren Jackson Jr. in the years ahead. Jackson might just end up as an exciting new 3-and-D center archetype once Gasol is off the roster and is one of the better dynasty prospects of the past three drafts. Even as a teenager possibly playing out of position in a sluggish scheme, Jackson is 19th among centers on the Player Rater this season.
As trade rumors build and with the deadline just 15 days away, we'll want to keep our head on a swivel with so many potential shifts in rotations and roles around the league. With an eye on important fantasy performances and relevant statistical trends, let's delve into the night that was in the NBA.
Tuesday recap
Highlights
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers: 34 points (12-24 FG), 5 rebounds, 8 assists, 5 steals, 5 TO
Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves: 25 points (10-15 FG), 18 rebounds, 7 assists, 2 steals, 2 TO
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder: 29 points (9-20 FG), 10 rebounds, 14 assists, 5 TO
Lowlights
Tobias Harris, LA Clippers: 9 points (1-9 FG), 7 rebounds, 4 assists, 1 TO
Wesley Matthews, Dallas Mavericks: 9 points (3-9 FG), 1 rebound, 1 assist
Derrick Rose, Minnesota Timberwolves: 6 points (3-9 FG), 1 rebound, 5 assists, 1 TO
Tuesday takeaways
Towns had 20 points, 11 rebounds and 5 assists at halftime in drubbing the Suns and could have posted an historic line if Phoenix had put up a fight. Towns became the second player over the past 20 seasons to have 20 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists in multiple halves, joining Westbrook (had both of his during the 2016-17 season). Jerryd Bayless scored a season-high 14 points on 16 shots, but this was almost entirely due to getting extra burn in the blowout. I'm not sure I buy Josh Okogie's surge in shooting of late, but with steady minutes until Robert Covington is back from injury (which could be a few weeks, it seems), there is some value in deeper leagues, thanks to the rookie's solid steals clip (at least one steal in each of his past six games).
For the Suns, Josh Jackson produced season-highs in points (27) and boards (10), thanks in part to Devin Booker earning an ejection in the third quarter. Past Booker, it's honestly been tough to project the glut of young wings on Phoenix. Some nights we'll see Jackson go off and others he's simply off. The same rings true for Kelly Oubre Jr. and Mikal Bridges. Oubre has been the most productive of this group and has the best offensive profile going forward, it seems.
Dennis Smith Jr.'s return to Dallas went smoother than I expected. "DSJ" hit hit six of his 17 shots, but I'm encouraged by that level of offensive usage and trust from the coaching staff during a competitive comeback win for the Mavericks.
Kawhi Leonard did not play on Tuesday night due to rest -- or "load management" as the cool kids call it. The Raptors improved to 11-2 this season when Leonard does not play (25-11 when he does). The Raptors' record without Leonard will be tested again tonight against the Pacers, with Toronto's superstar also sitting this one out for rest, with an eye on returning to action this Friday against the Rockets. With Leonard off the floor this season, Serge Ibaka sees the team's highest spike in usage, followed by Kyle Lowry. On a per-36 basis, Lowry sees the biggest boost in DFS production with Leonard on the sideline.
Marvin Bagley III was the rare bright spot for the Kings in the loss to the Raptors last night, scoring 22 points and pulling 11 rebounds in becoming the first Kings rookie with multiple 20-point, 10-rebound games in a season since DeMarcus Cousins in 2010-11 (seven such games). Bagley earned the start with the Kings resting three starters in Toronto and isn't yet a bankable fantasy asset, but like with Jackson in Memphis, the ceiling is quite high for the Duke product.
Injuries of note
Jimmy Butler (wrist) and Ben Simmons (illness) are considered questionable for tonight's tilt with the Spurs, a matchup discussed in detail below.
Andre Drummond is in the league's concussion protocol and is questionable for tonight's meeting with the Pelicans. Drummond traveled with the team, signaling there is a chance he's cleared by tonight's game.
Anthony Davis is due to miss two to four weeks with a possible avulsion fracture in his left index finger, per The Athletic. This news comes as a blow for the Pelicans and Davis' fantasy investors, as this injury was originally thought to last just a week or so. Without Davis in the lineup, both Julius Randle and Nikola Mirotic become strong DFS assets, while Jahlil Okafor is a fun deep-league target or daily flier to consider (especially if Drummond sits).
Analytics advantage for Wednesday
Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich can pass Pat Riley for the most career regular-season road wins in NBA history with a victory at Philadelphia on Wednesday at 8 ET on ESPN. San Antonio was 14th in the Western Conference after starting the season 11-14, but they've gone 16-7 since, the second-best record in the West during that span, trailing only the Warriors.
The turnaround has been on both ends of the floor; San Antonio ranks fourth in both offensive and defensive efficiency over their 16-7 stretch, which dates to Dec. 7th. They were 29th in defensive efficiency through 25 games, and yet San Antonio went from being one of the worst defenses in the league to ranking in the top four in opponent points per game, field goal percentage and 3-point field goal percentage over the last month and a half.
The 76ers are 31-17 this season, their most wins prior to the All-Star Break since 2000-01 (36), which was Philly's last appearance in the NBA finals (lost to Lakers). Simmons has 19 career triple-doubles in 128 career games. Per Elias, should Simmons record his 20th triple-double in the next seven games, he'd be the second-quickest to 20 in NBA history.
Getting shares of the San Antonio backcourt could prove rewarding today -- namely affordable options Derrick White and Bryn Forbes, as Philly has struggled all season to contain scoring guards.
Top players to watch tonight
James Harden brings his one-man offense to Madison Square Garden on Wednesday to face the Knicks, a team that ranks second-worst in defensive efficiency. Kobe Bryant has the most points in a game as a visitor at MSG, scoring 61 in February 2009. I'm guessing Harden is aware of this.
Harden is shooting 48 percent from the field and 44 percent from three against teams in the bottom 10 of defensive efficiency this season. The Knicks are also the worst team in the NBA at defending drives, something Harden will look to take advantage of; New York is allowing 1.08 points per direct drive this season, the worst in the NBA, per Second Spectrum. League average allowance is 0.99. Harden, on the other hand, has the most direct drives in the league this season (726) and averages 1.14 points per play on those, top-10 in the league among players with at least 200 such plays.
On the other side of the floor, the Knicks' Noah Vonleh is in a good spot to exceed value in DFS and remains available in free agency in more than half of ESPN leagues. The Rockets' patchwork frontcourt has been worked on the glass the past few games without Clint Capela, setting up Vonleh with double-double aspirations.
