ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for November 12 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
What you need to know for Saturday's games
Roll with Royce: The Clippers host the Nets in an afternoon battle in California. The marquee matchup is Kevin Durant dueling with Paul George, but a deeper dive reveals how important and productive Royce O'Neale (68% available) has been lately. O'Neale has posted at least five assists in six of his last seven games while also posting strong rebounding and steal rates. If you are looking to gain an extra game played at the wing this weekend, O'Neale is an ideal target.
Early Targets: The Jazz visit the Wizards in an early-evening tip. The hot start from Utah appears entirely real thanks to having a deep rotation rife with savvy veterans. Still a bit underappreciated is Jazz center Kelly Olynyk, who is a free agent in nearly 70% of ESPN leagues and yet ranks 10th on the Player Rater among centers during the last two weeks. If you can forgive his modest rebounding rate for a big man, Olynyk delivers atypically strong assist totals paired with a guard-like steal rate. For the Wizards, Kyle Kuzma should consume another massive workload with Bradley Beal ailing, making him an ideal target for prop best, including double-double bets, a feat he's pulled off in two of his last three games.
Space and Pacers: The game that stands out above the rest as friendly for fantasy purposes is the matchup between the Toronto Raptors and Indiana Pacers tonight in Indianapolis. The game sports a robust total of 229.5 paired with a tight point spread that slightly favors the Pacers. This indicates expectations for a competitive and high-scoring contest. The Pacers have a stellar implied point total hovering around 116 points tonight, so building DFS lineups around star point guard Tyrese Haliburton appears prudent. There are also deep values to consider on both rosters, such as Indiana's Jalen Smith and Andrew Nembhard. We know that Smith is a fun, if volatile source of boards and blocks, while Nembhard is a free agent in 99% of ESPN leagues and makes for a strong DFS bargain given he's played at least 28 minutes in three straight while Chris Duarte heals from an ankle injury. For Toronto, Chris Boucher 53% available) just delivered a big double-double last night and could be busy again with Pascal Siakam sidelined.
Rocket Men: The Houston Rockets are still struggling to put together wins, but there is some fun player development occurring in the meantime. Rookie Jabari Smith (62% available) is beginning to find his stride in the pros, as he just produced his second career double-double a few nights ago in a competitive loss to the Raptors. With Jae'Sean Tate and Bruno Fernando ruled out for Houston, Smith's rebounding and rim protection should be a factor against the Pelicans on Saturday night. Those seeking a solid center at reasonable pricing in DFS competition can turn to second-year pivot Alperen Sengun, who is quietly slashing for 18.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG, and 3.3 APG during the last week.
-- Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Game of the night
Brooklyn Nets at LA Clippers
4 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
Line: Clippers (-2)
Money line: Clippers (-130), Nets (+110)
Total: 213 points
BPI Projected Total: 221.8 points
BPI Win%: Nets (54.7%)
Ruled Out: Kyrie Irving (suspension), Yuta Watanabe (ankle), Kawhi Leonard
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: John Wall (rostered in 53% of ESPN leagues) is a great streamer in this matchup and contributes in multiple statistical areas. He has averaged 12.3 PPG, 5.0 APG, 3.3 RPG, and 1.3 SPG in his past three games, scoring 30 fantasy points per game. -- Eric Moody
Best bet: Nets +2.0, Under 212. Brooklyn has covered the spread in it's last four. The Nets rank 12th in points scored per 100 possessions, but have struggled on defense they have struggled on defense, ranking 17th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Nonetheless, the Nets have held each of their last four opponents under 100 points, something they hadn't done since the 2014-15 season. I'm backing the Nets with the points and taking the under. The Nets' past four games have been under the total and the under has gone 6-1 in the Clippers past seven games.
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Utah Jazz at Washington Wizards
6 p.m. ET, Capital One Arena, Washington, Washington D.C.
Line: Wizards (-4)
Money line: Jazz (-180), Wizards (+152)
Total: 222 points
BPI Projected Total: 223.7 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (65.5%)
Questionable: Kristaps Porzingis (groin)
Ruled Out: Bradley Beal (health and safety protocols), Taj Gibson (neck)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Jarred Vanderbilt (rostered in 27.6% of ESPN leagues) returned to the starting lineup on Wednesday after missing the last two games with a groin injury. He's very capable of contributing in multiple statistical areas including assists and steals. Vanderbilt has averaged 27.6 fantasy points per game. -- Eric Moody
Best bet: Jazz -4.0. The Jazz have exceeded expectations so far this season and are on a four-game win streak. Utah ranks second in points scored per 100 possessions and are 8-0 against the spread when scoring more than 110.6 points. I would back the Jazz on the road to cover against a Wizards team that will be without Bradley Beal. -- Moody
Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan
Line: Celtics (-9.5)
Money line: Celtics (-455), Pistons (+345)
Total: 222.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 223.8 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (86.1%)
Questionable: Malcolm Brogdon, Cade Cunningham
Ruled Out:
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Al Horford (rostered in 43.3% of ESPN leagues) is in an excellent spot against the Pistons. All season long, they have been annihilated by power forwards. Over the last three games, Horford has averaged 40.3 fantasy points per game. -- Moody
Best bet: Under 225.5. The Pistons are one of the worst teams in the league on both side of the floor. Detroit ranks 27th in points scored per 100 possessions and 30th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Only two of Detroit's last five games have gone over the total. This game has the potential to become lopsided very quickly. -- Moody
Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Line: Pacers (-1)
Money line: Pacers (-115), Raptors (-105)
Total: 229 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.3 points
BPI Win%: Pacers (54.7%)
Best bet: Pacers +1.5. The Pacers are a stout offensive team behind Tyrese Haliburton. They rank seventh in points scored per 100 possessions, but struggle to contain opponents defensively. The Raptors have been more balanced but is on the end of a back-to-back and were dominated by the Thunder on Friday. Toronto is 4-1 ATS over their past five games and 4-0 ATS at home over their past four games. -- Moody
Best bet: Tyrese Haliburton over 29.5 points + assists. Haliburton has seen a significant increase in usage with the Pacers. this season and has averaged 21.6 PPG and 10.0 APG. The Raptors have allowed their opponents to have a 54.6% effective field goal percentage, one of the highest in the league. They also allow a high percentage of mid-range jumpers and Haliburton has made 46% of his mid-range shots. -- Moody
Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers
7:30 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Line: 76ers (-3.5)
Money line: 76ers (-170), Hawks (+143)
Total: 220.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 222.1 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (59.1%)
Questionable: Paul Reed
Ruled Out: James Harden (foot), Onyeka Okongwu, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Hawks +3.5. The Hawks should be the more talented team Saturday night. Atlanta is 8-4 and 14th in points scored per 100 possessions and seventh in points allowed per 100 possessions. They've only allowed opponents to shoot 51% from the field and are 4-1 in ATS over their past five games. -- Moody
Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat
8 p.m. ET, FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
Line: Hornets (-10.5)
Money line: Heat (-550), Hornets (+400)
Total: 212.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 220.8 points
BPI Win%: Heat (73.2%)
Questionable: Dennis Smith Jr. (ankle)
Ruled Out: Gordon Hayward (shoulder), LaMelo Ball (ankle), Cody Martin (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Under 212.5. Bettors shouldn't expect a ton of scoring in this game. The Hornets rank 28th in points scored per 100 possessions while the Heat rank 20th. Miami has only scored 113 or more points in four games this season. The Heat should have the better defense on the court, ranking 11th in points allowed per 100 possessions. The under has gone 6-1-1 in the Hornets' past eight games and 3-1 in Miami's past four games. -- Moody
Best bet: Trae Young over 33.5 points + assists. Young hasn't had the best start this season shooting 37.4% from the field. However, he still has averaged 27.5 PPG and 9.2 APG. Young should be able to get his shot back sooner rather than later. -- Moody
Portland Trail Blazers at Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Line: Mavericks (-5.5)
Money line: Mavericks (-220), Blazers (+180)
Total: 214.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 226.4 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (75.5%)
Questionable: Jerami Grant, Jusuf Nurkic (thigh), Justise Winslow (ankle), Shaedon Sharpe (finger), Christian Wood (knee)
Ruled Out: Davis Bertans (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans
8:30 p.m. ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Line: Pelicans (-10.5)
Money line: Pelicans (-550), Rockets (+400)
Total: 231.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.2 points
BPI Win%: Pelicans (84.7%)
Best bet: CJ McCollum over 29.5 points + assists. This is a great matchup for McCollum against a Rockets team that has given up some masterful performances to point guards this season. Houston ranks 29th in points allowed per 100 possessions and McCollum has a usage rate of 26.7%. -- Moody
Analytics edge
BPI highest projected totals
1. New Orleans Pelicans (120.8 points)
2. Utah Jazz (117.8 points)
3. Dallas Mavericks (117 points)
BPI lowest projected totals
1. Detroit Pistons (106.0 points)
2. Charlotte Hornets (107.0 points)
3. Houston Rockets (109.4 points)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Boston Celtics (86.1%)
2. New Orleans Pelicans (84.7%)
3. Dallas Mavericks (75.5%)
