ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for December 12th are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
What you need to know for Monday's games
​​​Different 'Dogs: Tonight's slate is littered with some interesting spreads, namely home teams getting at least three points and road teams getting at least seven. In theory, these two situations are similar after you adjust for homecourt, but that hasn't been the case. Home teams catching at least three points have covered 59.1% of the time while those road teams are at 50% on the nose. So, if you're in an underdog state of mind, try to work around the home teams.
Which Trend to Buy: The Mavericks have been among the worst ATS teams in the league this year, boasting a brutal 8-16-2 ATS record (33.3% cover rate). That rate dips further (31.6%) when favored. They face a Thunder team with polar opposite trends: 15-11 ATS this season with a 15-7 ATS mark when catching points. Smash the Thunder, right? Not wrong, but be careful ... it's only been seven games, but the Mavs are 5-2 when favored in a game with a projected total of at least 220 points (1-11-1 otherwise). Strong trends pulling in opposite directions: which number do you put more faith into?
Getting Goodwin: There is a second-year undrafted talent likely to start tonight who has compiled 11 steals and nine dimes while averaging 18 points over his past two games. Washington's Jordan Goodwin has thrived while starting in place of Bradley Beal. With the Wizards ruling Beal out ahead of tonight's matchup with the Nets, Goodwin, who is a free agent in 96% of ESPN leagues, is due for another rewarding workload.
Bogdan Balling: The Atlanta Hawks won't have Dejounte Murray in the lineup against the Grizzlies in Memphis this evening. While there is no singular replacement for Dejounte Murray's elite two-way skill set, it helps that Bogdan Bogdanovic has averaged 29.5 points over his last two games. With Atlanta needing Bogdanovic's creation, he's in a good spot at just $4,800 on DraftKings while being a free agent in roughly 60% of ESPN leagues.
-- Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Game of the night
Atlanta Hawks at Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. ET, FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
Line: Grizzlies (-8)
Money line: Grizzlies (-345), Hawks (+270)
Total: 227.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 235.9 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (72.6%)
Questionable: Dejounte Murray, Ja Morant, Steven Adams
Ruled Out: John Collins
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers
7 p.m. ET, Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Line: Heat (-3)
Money line: Heat (-155), Pacers (+130)
Total: 228 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.5 points
BPI Win%: Pacers (57.7%)
Probable: Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, Jimmy Butler, Max Strus
Questionable: Dewayne Dedmon
Ruled Out: Gabe Vincent
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Tyrese Haliburton over 29.5 total points + assists. Haliburton has been particularly aggressive since his return from injury last week, averaging 28.0 PPG and 11.7 APG in his last three outings. Even his season averages of 20.2 PPG and 11.0 APG would put him over the 29.5 line, but he's been producing well above average of late. -- Andre Snellings
Best bet: Tyrese Haliburton over 2.5 3-pointers. Haliburton has averaged 20.2 points per game this season, shot 7.1 3-pointers per game. In fact, over the past seven games, Haliburton has made nearly 50% of his 51 3-point attempts. -- Eric Moody
Best bet: Tyler Herro over 20.5 points. The Pacers have allowed the third-most points per game to shooting guards this season. Meanwhile Herro has scored 20 or more points in four of his past five games. -- Moody
Fantasy streamer: Victor Oladipo (rostered in 9.0% of ESPN leagues) is on the streaming radar with Gabe Vincent ruled out. Oladipo finished with 20 fantasy points in 23 minutes against the Spurs on Saturday. -- Moody
Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. ET, Capital One Arena, Washington, Washington D.C.
Line: Nets (-6)
Money line: Nets (-225), Wizards (+185)
Total: 226 points
BPI Projected Total: 234.8 points
BPI Win%: Nets (53.6%)
Questionable: Nic Claxton, Monte Morris
Ruled Out: Royce O'Neale, Rui Hachimura, Bradley Beal
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Kevin Durant over 39.5 points + assists + rebounds. While Durant sat out Saturday night against the Pacers, he's surpassed 39.5 PAR in his past three games played. -- Moody
Best bet: Kristaps Porzingis over 34.5 points + rebounds. Porzingis has surpassed 34.5 points and rebounds in four straight games. -- Moody
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas
Line: Mavericks (-7.5)
Money line: Mavericks (-345), Thunder (+270)
Total: 228.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 224.7 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (77.9%)
Probable: Luka Doncic
Questionable: Maxi Kleber
Ruled Out: Josh Green, Kenrich Williams
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Cleveland Cavaliers at San Antonio Spurs
8:30 p.m. ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Line: Cavaliers (-6.5)
Money line: Cavaliers (-278), Spurs (+222)
Total: 218.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.4 points
BPI Win%: Cavaliers (74.8%)
Questionable: Kevin Love, Donovan Mitchell
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Zach Collins (available in 98.0% of leagues) has started five straight games in place of Jakob Poeltl and seems to have started getting into the groove in his last couple outings. In those two games, he has averaged a respectable 13.0 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.0 BPG, 0.5 3PG and 0.5 SPG in 28.5 MPG. -- Snellings
Best bet: Cavaliers -5.5. The Spurs have won their last two games, but they'd lost 11 straight and 16 out of 17 overall before those games. Of those 16 losses, 14 of them were by more than 5.5 points. The Cavaliers, on the other hand, have won nine of their last 14 games, with all nine victories by more than 5.5 points. -- Snellings
Best bet: Evan Mobley over 24.5 points + rebounds. Mobley has averaged 15.0 PPG and 9.3 RPG this season and draws a favorable matchup against a Spurs team that has struggled against power forwards all season. San Antonio ranks 30th in points allowed per 100 possessions. -- Moody
Minnesota Timberwolves at Portland Trail Blazers
10 p.m. ET, Moda Center, Portland, Oregon
Line: Blazers (-4)
Money line: Blazers (-170), Timberwolves (+143)
Total: 230 points
BPI Projected Total: 237.9 points
BPI Win%: Blazers (60.7%)
Questionable: Jordan McLaughlin
Ruled Out: Taurean Prince, Karl-Anthony Towns
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Kyle Anderson (available in 91.7% of leagues) and Naz Reid (available in 98.8% of leagues) have become two of my favorite streamers in Karl-Anthony Towns' absence. Both are glue guys, hustle guys that produce when given minutes and have somewhat explosive upside. In his last two games, Anderson has flirted with triple-doubles with averages of 14.5 PPG, 9.0 APG, 7.0 RPG, 1.5 SPG and 0.5 BPG in 37.0 MPG. Reid, even playing behind Rudy Gobert, has averaged 13.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 1.5 BPG and 1.5 3PG in only 15.5 MPG in his last two. -- Snellings
Best bet: Damian Lillard over 27.5 points, over 35.5 total points + assists. Lillard has returned wielding a flame thrower. After his latest injury absence, Lillard took a game to warm up and then scored 76 points with 20 assists in his next two games. One of those games was against Monday's opponent, the Timberwolves, and he just dropped 36 and 8 on them on Saturday night. -- Snellings
Boston Celtics at LA Clippers
10:30 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
Line: Celtics (-3.5)
Money line: Celtics (-165), Clippers (+140)
Total: 223.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 228.2 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (62.5%)
Ruled Out: Al Horford, Norman Powell
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Analytics edge
BPI highest projected totals
1. Memphis Grizzlies (121.3 points)
2. Portland Trail Blazers (120.5 points)
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (118.9 points)
BPI lowest projected totals
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (108.3 points)
2. San Antonio Spurs (112.4 points)
3. LA Clippers (112.4 points)
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. Dallas Mavericks (77.9%)
2. Cleveland Cavaliers (74.8%)
3. Memphis Grizzlies (72.6%)
