ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for December 15th are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
Pellie Money: The Pelicans are favored for a third time against the Jazz tonight, a Jazz team they have yet to beat and lost by 21 to on Tuesday night. It's possible that the sportsbooks are clueless and simply misevaluate both of these teams ... but I'm not banking on it. Against NBA teams not based in Utah, New Orleans is 13-3 outright (10-6 ATS) when favored this season. In those 13 outright victories, under tickets have come through nine times. Unders are 10-4 in Utah's 14 outright losses this season ... you've got the green light to attack this game in a variety of ways.
Fantasy Friendly: During a limited four-game slate, it can help to identify specific matchups that could be conducive to offensive production. The aforementioned matchup between the Pelicans and Jazz, for instance, claims the slate's highest point total (231) with a tight spread of just 1.5 points on most books. This indicates the potential for a high-scoring and competitive game between Western foes that both rank in the top six in offensive rating on the season. In terms of identifying specific players to target for streaming purposes, the likely absence of Brandon Ingram due to a toe injury means Trey Murphy III (73% available in ESPN leagues) is poised for big minutes and is due for a positive correction in the shooting department. Utah, meanwhile, will likely let Malik Beasley (53%) shoot at will given the absence of Collin Sexton to hamstring strain. ​​​
Get Carter: The Bucks won't have star point guard Jrue Holiday for tonight's matchup with Ja Morant and the Grizzlies in Memphis tonight. Holiday's absence vaults Jevon Carter into the starting lineup. The veteran backup is a free agent in 95% of ESPN leagues and has seen his usage rate leap meaningfully by 4.1 percent while he's scored 4.5 more DraftKings points per 36 minutes whenever he's been on the floor with Holiday off the court this season. For those building out DFS lineups, wing Khris Middleton enjoys a team-high leap of 9.8 DraftKings points per 36 minutes with Holiday off the floor this season. ​​​
Dime Time: Finding assists on the waiver wire can prove difficult. After all, most high-usage guards are already rostered in competitive fantasy leagues, so it helps whenever a widely-available it dishing at a notable degree. Tyus Jones (91% available) of the Grizzlies, for instance, has produced 33 assists over his last four appearances and should play a real role in the rotation against the Bucks tonight.
-- Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Game of the night
Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. ET, FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee
Line: Grizzlies (-2)
Money line: Grizzlies (-130), Bucks (+110)
Total: 226.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.8 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (61.8%)
Questionable: MarJon Beauchamp
Ruled Out: Jrue Holiday (illness)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Brook Lopez under 12.5 points. Lopez has scored a total of 18 points over the past three games, perhaps coinciding with the return of Khris Middleton. Lopez has averaged 10.7 FGA per game, but only attempted 17 field goals over the past three games. -- Karabell
Best bet: Bucks +2. This is a game between two of the best teams in the NBA, a relatively big game for this time of season. I think the Bucks are the slightly better team, and with this being a strong opponent they may get up for this game more than they would against a lesser team. I consider this to be at worst a pick em, so I'll take the Bucks with the points. -- Snellings
Best bet: Ja Morant over 41.5 points + assists + rebounds. Jrue Holiday will sit out a second consecutive game due to an illness. Morant, who isn't listed on the injury report ahead of this matchup, stands to benefit from this matchup. This season, he has averaged 27.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and 7.8 APG. -- Eric Moody
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Miami Heat at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Line: Heat (-4)
Money line: Heat (-178), Rockets (+150)
Total: 218.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 230.8 points
BPI Win%: Heat (60.7%)
Questionable: Jimmy Butler
Ruled Out: Gabe Vincent (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Jabari Smith Jr. (available in 58.7% of leagues). Smith has raised his level of play over the past few weeks and is approaching the level of a reliable fantasy option every night. He's averaged 14.7 PPG (48.2 FG%, 82.8 FT%), 7.3 RPG, 2.7 3PG, 0.7 BPG and 0.5 SPG in 30.8 MPG over his past 11 games. -- Andre Snellings
Best bet: Jalen Green over 22.5 points. He has scored 25 points in four of his last six games. With the Heat coming off a back-to-back, Green should succeed against Miami's defense. This season, he has a usage rate of 28.5%. -Eric Moody
Best bet: Rockets +4. The Rockets have quietly won four of their past six games, with wins over the Suns (twice), Bucks and 76ers. Houston faces a Heat team on the second night of a back-to-back, their third game in four nights. I'll take the Rockets' young legs to keep it close at home. -- Snellings
New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz
9 p.m. ET, Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah
Line: Pelicans (-1.5)
Money line: Pelicans (-125), Jazz (+105)
Total: 231.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 233.3 points
BPI Win%: Jazz (58.3%)
Ruled Out: Jose Alvarado, Brandon Ingram
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Walker Kessler (available in 87.2% of leagues). Kessler continues to pile on the rebounds and blocks and he has topped 30 fantasy points in five of six December contests. He is not a big traditional scorer, but he makes his field goals and avoids turnovers, too. He had 38 fantasy points on Tuesday against these same Pelicans. -- Eric Karabell
Best bet: Jarred Vanderbilt over 7.5 rebounds. Vanderbilt can be a bit all-or-nothing with rebounds, as he had 14 of them against the Pelicans a few days ago, but he also grabbed seven or fewer boards in four of his past six games this month. Something went right on Tuesday so we can expect a reasonable repeat tonight. -- Karabell
Fantasy streamer: Larry Nance Jr. (available in 85.0% of leagues) has grabbed at least seven rebounds in four straight games and has picked up his production across the board over his past three games. In those three games, he has averaged 12.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 4.0 APG, 2.7 SPG and 1.3 BPG in 27.0 MPG. -- Snellings
Fantasy streamer: Nickeil Alexander-Walker (rostered in 4.2% of ESPN leagues) still has some streaming value with Collin Sexton still out. Despite playing only 25 minutes, he scored 41 fantasy points -- Moody
Best bet: Zion Williamson over 35.5 points + rebounds. In a blowout loss to the Jazz on Tuesday, Williamson finished with 26 points and nine rebounds. He's in a great spot to replicate this performance against a Jazz team that ranks 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions.
Phoenix Suns at LA Clippers
10:30 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California
Line: Clippers (-1.5)
Money line: Clippers (-125), Suns (+105)
Total: 218 points
BPI Projected Total: 227.3 points
BPI Win%: Clippers (52.7%)
Questionable: Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, John Wall, Ivica Zubac
Ruled Out: Cameron Payne
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Landry Shamet (available in 99.7% of leagues). Shamet could play a larger role on Thursday with Cameron Payne out and Devin Booker questionable. Even if Booker returns, Shamet and Damion Lee (available in 98.9% of leagues) will get the lion's share of perimeter opportunities off the bench. -- Snellings
