ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for December 19th are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
​​Eyeing OKC: The Thunder aren't a great basketball team, but are they a value play tonight? They are in the midst of a seven-game homestand while the Blazers are playing their fourth road game in six days, so at the very least, the "spot" is appealing. Add in the fact that home 'dogs of at least seven points are 21-9-2 ATS this season and you have the green light to be a one-day Thunder fan (maybe three-day ... these two teams play in OKC again on Wednesday).
​​Big Home Favorites, Different Story: We just laid out the case for playing a big home underdog, some of the thought being that the home court edge is greater than the spread implies. That, however, does not apply for big home favorites. Not only are home teams favored by at least a touchdown one game under .500 ATS this season, betting the underdog moneyline has actually yielded a +2.6-unit profit. So yes, those teams are, on paper, far superior and in front of their fans, just be careful in assuming that you can back them blindly.
Melton's Moment: Even if it's getting repetitive, we'll continue to endorse Philadelphia's De'Anthony Melton as a must-add fantasy option until Tyrese Maxey is back from a foot injury. It appears Melton has a few more weeks left as a bankable starter for the Sixers, a role that he's thrived in, tallying 15.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 3.3 3-pointers, and 3.2 combined blocks and steals per game over his last 13 starts. The reeling Raptors are in town tonight, a team he's already collected eight steals against in two meetings back in October. You can currently add Melton for the price of a roster spot in more than half of ESPN leagues.
​​​Waiver Wolve: The Minnesota Timberwolves set a franchise record last night with 150 points in regulation in a win over the Chicago Bulls. This was accomplished without either of the team's All-Star bigs, as both Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert are sidelined by respective injuries. The team plays again tonight with Dallas coming to town and we could get another strong statistical performance from defensive ace Jaden McDaniels (83% available in ESPN leagues), who has upped his scoring and playmaking lately while posting an awesome 2.8 combined blocks and steals per game over the last week. ​​​
Bet on Bryant: The Lakers won't have Anthony Davis for multiple weeks due to a foot injury. Los Angeles pulled off a close win over the Wizards last night thanks in part to former Washington standout Thomas Bryant delivering a big double-double in place of Davis. A free agent in right around 90% of ESPN leagues, Bryant is due to start in a rewarding role for the Lakers as the roll man in sets with LeBron James and Russell Westbrook. The Lakers head to Phoenix tonight and with Deandre Ayton likely back in the lineup for the Suns, Bryant will likely play major minutes.
-- Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe
Game of the night
Utah Jazz at Cleveland Cavaliers
7 p.m. ET, Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, Ohio
Line: Cavaliers (-6)
Money line: Cavaliers (-240), Jazz (+196)
Total: 222 points
BPI Projected Total: 230 points
BPI Win%: Cavaliers (72.2%)
Questionable: Collin Sexton
Ruled Out: Lamar Stevens, Dylan Windler, Ricky Rubio, Dean Wade
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Cavaliers -6.0. The Cavs have won three straight and 12 of their last 17 games, while the Jazz have lost nine of their last 15 games. Six of those Jazz losses were by more than six points, while 11 of those 12 Cavs wins were by six or more points. This just feels like a Donovan Mitchell is about to do something ridiculous game... more on that below. -- Andre Snellings
Best bet: Donovan Mitchell over 28.5 points. Mitchell has averaged 29.5 points this season and scored over 28.5 points in eight of his past 13 games. He is a player that likes to go big in big moments. He'll be facing his old team and they also happen to allow the sixth-most points to opposing shooting guards. I'd be surprised if Mitchell doesn't go for at least 30 points and put his stamp on this game. -- Snellings
Best bet: Evan Mobley over 25.5 points + rebounds. The Jazz have allowed power forwards to have some masterful performances against them this season. Mobley should have a field day as Utah ranks 27th in points allowed per 100 possessions and allow a high number of shots within four feet of the basket. Mobley's has made 73% of his shots in that range. -- Eric Moody
Breaking down the rest of the slate
Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers
7 p.m. ET, Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Line: 76ers (-7.5)
Money line: 76ers (-305), Raptors (+240)
Total: 219.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 225.9 points
BPI Win%: 76ers (80.6%)
Questionable: Furkan Korkmaz, Gary Trent Jr.
Ruled Out: Tyrese Maxey, O.G. Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa, Otto Porter Jr.
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Malachi Flynn (available in 99.9% of leagues) has taken advantage of his opportunity with OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. out. He's coming off his two best games of the season and dropped 16 points, 6 rebounds, four 3-pointers, two assists and a steal in 37 minutes on Sunday. -- Snellings
Best bet: 76ers -7.5. These 76ers and Raptors are moving in opposing directions right now. The Raptors were already scuffling a bit but have now lost four straight games since Anunoby went down with a hip injury. Meanwhile, the 76ers have won four straight (by an average of more than 15 PPG) since getting James Harden back on the court. -- Snellings
Best bet: James Harden over 30.5 points + assists; over 2.5 total 3-pointers. Harden has averaged 23.2 PPG and 11.8 APG since returning from a foot injury. The Raptors are not a stout defensive team, ranking 19th in points allowed per 100 possessions and allowing shooting guards to make the seventh most triples on a per game. It should be a very productive evening for the Beard. -- Moody
Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks
7:30 p.m. ET, State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
Line: Hawks (-7.5)
Money line: Hawks (-305), Magic (+240)
Total: 231 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.4 points
BPI Win%: Hawks (71.5%)
Ruled Out: Wendell Carter Jr., Chuma Okeke, Gary Harris, Dejounte Murray, John Collins, Clint Capela
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy streamer: Markelle Fultz (available in 85.9% of leagues). Fultz has played well since returning from injury, with frequent flashes of greatness. He's scored 15 or more points in three of his past seven games. Fultz has also flashed as a distributor and defender over his past three games averaging 12.0 PPG, 6.0 APG, 5.3 RPG, 3.0 SPG and 0.7 BPG in 30.0 MPG. -- Snellings
Best bet: Magic +7.5. The Magic have won six straight games outright against tough competition. They are coming off back-to-back wins over the Celtics in Boston and the Hawks have only won four of their past 12 games, including an 11-point loss to the Magic last week. Atlanta isn't playing like a team that should be favored by 7.5 points in this matchup. -- Snellings
Fantasy streamer: Moritz Wagner (rostered in 8.5% of ESPN leagues). Wagner has exceeded fantasy managers expectations over the last 10 games. He has scored 20 or more fantasy points in seven of them, including three with 42 or more points. Wagner should continue to have success against the Hawks on Monday night. -- Moody
Fantasy streamer: Onyeka Okongwu (rostered in 10.4% of ESPN leagues). Okongwu continues to be a viable streamer with Clint Capela out. Okongwu has scored 20 or more fantasy points in four consecutive games and should thrive against a Magic team that ranks 20th in points allowed per 100 possessions. -- Moody
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Line: Rockets (-4)
Money line: Rockets (-180), Spurs (+152)
Total: 227.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 238.3 points
BPI Win%: Rockets (61.2%)
Questionable: Romeo Langford, Keldon Johnson
Ruled Out: Garrison Mathews, Jae'Sean Tate, Josh Richardson
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Tre Jones over 6.5 assists. Jones has averaged 6.7 assists per game and the Rockets have given up the most assists per game to point guards this season. -- Moody
Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves
8 p.m. ET, Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota
Line: Mavericks (-3.5)
Money line: Mavericks (-170), Timberwolves (+143)
Total: 228 points
BPI Projected Total: 234.5 points
BPI Win%: Mavericks (56.8%)
Questionable: Dwight Powell, Tim Hardaway Jr., Davis Bertans, Luka Doncic
Ruled Out: Josh Green, Maxi Kleber
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Milwaukee Bucks at New Orleans Pelicans
8 p.m. ET, Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, Louisiana
Line: Bucks (-2)
Money line: Bucks (-125), Pelicans (+105)
Total: 228 points
BPI Projected Total: 235.4 points
BPI Win%: Bucks (53.2%)
Questionable: Larry Nance Jr.
Ruled Out: Khris Middleton, Brandon Ingram
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Bucks -2.0. Both squads are driven by the interior offensive dominance of their athletically freaky power forwards. While Zion Williamson is a mismatch against most opponents, particularly when he operates as the offensive hub off the dribble, he doesn't have that advantage against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks. I like the Bucks to win in the paint on offense and defense, which gives them a good chance to pull out the win on the road against the Pelicans. -- Snellings
Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Line: Blazers (-7.5)
Money line: Blazers (-320), Thunder (+250)
Total: 227.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 237.6 points
BPI Win%: Thunder (67.2%)
Questionable: Jusuf Nurkic, Josh Hart, Jerami Grant
Ruled Out: Gary Payton II, Nassir Little, Darius Bazley, Josh Giddey, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ousmane Dieng
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Damian Lillard over 36.5 points + assists. Lillard has been superb since returning from his calf injury. He's in a very good spot against a Thunder team that ranks 18th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Jerami Grant is questionable, so Lillard's statistical ceiling could be even higher. He has surpassed 35 points + assists five times over his past seven games. -- Moody
Fantasy streamer: Isaiah Joe (rostered in 0.3% of ESPN leagues). Joe is on the streaming radar tonight with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey ruled out. He should see a lot of minutes in a good matchup against the Trail Blazers. Joe has averaged 23.8 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.6 assists per 40 minutes. -- Moody
Los Angeles Lakers at Phoenix Suns
9 p.m. ET, Footprint Center, Phoenix, Arizona
Line: Suns (-9.5)
Money line: Suns (-430), Lakers (+328)
Total: 231 points
BPI Projected Total: 239.3 points
BPI Win%: Suns (72.4%)
Questionable: Patrick Beverley, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton
Ruled Out: Anthony Davis, Juan Toscano-Anderson
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Lakers +9.5. The Suns have won two straight games, but only three of their past nine. They needed an amazing 57-point performance from Devin Booker to come back and defeat the Pelicans in their last game. The Lakers have won 11 of their past 17 games, including the past two without Anthony Davis. The Suns may be favored in this game, but this spread is just too large for the way both teams have been playing. -- Snellings
Fantasy streamer: Dennis Schroder (rostered in 22.2% of ESPN leagues) is another player who indirectly benefits from Anthony Davis' absence. While he is a reliable source of points, triples, and assists, he does not have a high field goal percentage. Schroder has scored 24 or more fantasy points over his past two games. -- Moody
Charlotte Hornets at Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. ET, Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
Line: Kings (-10)
Money line: Kings (-480), Hornets (+360)
Total: 240 points
BPI Projected Total: 240.6 points
BPI Win%: Kings (73%)
Questionable: Terry Rozier
Ruled Out: Dennis Smith Jr., Cody Martin
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best bet: Domantas Sabonis over 40.5 points + assists + rebounds. The Hornets have been one of the most favorable matchups for centers all season. Charlotte allowed Nikola Jokic to accumulate 40 points, 27 rebounds and 10 assists against them on Sunday night. The Hornets rank 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions and allow a high percentage of shots within four feet of the basket. Sabonis has the potential to get a triple double in this game. -- Moody
