ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Saturday, April 8, are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
What you need to know for Saturday's games
On this penultimate day of the NBA marathon, we find just three games on the schedule ahead of Sunday's full slate that features all 30 teams in action. Of these three contests, only the afternoon tip including the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz includes a single-digit point spread.
You know it's a unique market when Kris Dunn sits third in projected ceiling in my DFS model, but such is the case with the Jazz empowering the former lottery pick with big minutes and offensive responsibilities as they rest their core starters for today's tilt with Denver. Digging deep is a requirement for building lineups today. The Portland Trail Blazers, for instance, are featuring Shaquille Harrison as a lead distributor in recent games; he's exceeded value on DraftKings in three straight games.
While this is a challenging slate, it's also fun in that we'll need to research and roster new names in our DFS lineups and when seeking out rewarding prop plays. I'm likely more inclined to focus on prop plays, such as Ivica Zubac going over 11.5 points against a small Portland team or Rudy Gobert cleaning the glass (12.5) in a plus matchup with the Spurs.
-- Jim McCormick
Breaking down the slate
Denver Nuggets at Utah Jazz
3:30 p.m ET, Vivint Arena, Salt Lake City, UT
Records (Against the Spread)
Nuggets: 52-28 (43-36-1)
Jazz: 36-44 (45-35-0)
Line: Nuggets (-6) Total: 225
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 10.1
Money Line: Nuggets (-250), Jazz (+205)
Injury Report:
Nuggets: Aaron Gordon, (GTD - Shoulder); Bruce Brown, (GTD - Knee); Jamal Murray, (GTD - Thumb); Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, (GTD - Illness); Michael Porter Jr., (GTD - Heel); Nikola Jokic, (GTD - Calf); Reggie Jackson, (GTD - Back)
Jazz: Collin Sexton, (OUT - Hamstring); Jordan Clarkson, (OUT - Finger); Kelly Olynyk, (OUT - Rest); Lauri Markkanen, (OUT - Hand); Rudy Gay, (OUT - Back); Talen Horton-Tucker, (OUT - Ankle); Walker Kessler, (OUT - Concussion)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Fantasy streamer: Bruce Brown (rostered in 31.1% of ESPN leagues) is firmly on the streaming radar with the Nuggets having nothing to play for. Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic, and Aaron Gordon are all questionable and Brown has scored 34 or more fantasy points in six consecutive games. The Jazz rank 25th in points allowed per 100 possessions.=Moody
Fantasy streamer: Kris Dunn (rostered in 12.5% of ESPN leagues) benefits from so many Jazz players already ruled out. He'll be one of their starters in the backcourt due to the absences of Collin Sexton and Talen Horton-Tucker. Dunn has scored 24 or more fantasy points in five straight games, including three with 34 or more. With Dunn's contract for next season isn't guaranteed, we can assume he still has something to play for. =Moody
Trend: With Denver locked into the top seed in the West and Utah heading to the lottery, there isn't much motivation on either side of this contest. This said, both teams feature top-9 offenses and bottom-12 defenses, evidence that the over is in play given the fairly modest total set for this contest. -McCormick
Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs4:00 p.m ET, AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX
Records (Against the Spread)
Timberwolves: 40-40 (38-42-0)
Spurs: 21-59 (32-48-0)
Line: Timberwolves (-14) Total: 233
BPI Projection: Timberwolves by 13.7
Money Line: Timberwolves (-1100), Spurs (+700)
Injury Report:
Timberwolves: Austin Rivers, (GTD - Illness); Jaylen Nowell, (GTD - Knee); Karl-Anthony Towns, (GTD - Calf); Naz Reid, (OUT - Wrist)
Spurs: Keldon Johnson, (GTD - Foot); Romeo Langford, (GTD - Thigh); Devin Vassell, (OUT - Knee); Devonte' Graham, (OUT - Groin); Doug McDermott, (OUT - Ankle); Jeremy Sochan, (OUT - Knee); Khem Birch, (OUT - Knee); Charles Bassey, (OUT - Kneecap)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Best bet: Anthony Edwards over 33.5 points+assists+rebounds. Edwards has averaged 22.0 points, 4.7 assists and 3.8 rebounds per game over the last six games. He's well positioned to surpass these averages against a Spurs team that ranks 30th in points allowed per 100 possessions. San Antonio also allows opponents an effective field goal percentage of 57.8%, the highest in the league. =Moody
Fantasy streamer: Zach Collins (rostered in 15.5% of ESPN leagues) has been superb when on the court. He's scored 44 or more fantasy points in two of his last three games. Collins is likely to miss at least one of the Spurs' back-to-back games to close out the regular season. If he's out on Saturday night, pivot to Sandro Mamukelashvili (rostered in 1.7% of leagues), who has scored 18 or more fantasy points in four of his last five games, including two with 31 or more. =Moody
Trend: Minnesota is the rare team with seeding motivation on Saturday. While they can't do worse than the ninth seed, a win and some fortuitous losses ahead of them could help. The Spurs, meanwhile, appear set to rest several key players and have covered just two of their past nine games, while the Timberwolves have covered in four of their past five. -McCormick
Portland Trail Blazers at LA Clippers4:00 p.m ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA
Records (Against the Spread)
Blazers: 33-47 (38-41-1)
Clippers: 42-38 (40-40-0)
Line: Clippers (-17) Total: 230
BPI Projection: Clippers by 19.8
Money Line: Blazers (+1050), Clippers (-2000)
Injury Report:
Blazers: Cam Reddish, (GTD - Back); Drew Eubanks, (GTD - Ankle); Trendon Watford, (GTD - Ankle); Anfernee Simons, (OUT - Foot); Jerami Grant, (OUT - Quadriceps); Jusuf Nurkic, (OUT - Knee); Matisse Thybulle, (OUT - Knee); Nassir Little, (OUT - Ankle); Damian Lillard, (OUT - Calf); Keon Johnson, (OUT - Finger)
Clippers: Marcus Morris Sr., (OUT - Back); Paul George, (OUT - Knee)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play
Fantasy streamer: Shaedon Sharpe (rostered in 27.6% of ESPN leagues) missed Thursday's game against the Spurs due to left knee tendinopathy, but is probable for Saturday's game. He scored 42 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games. Sharpe remains an excellent streamer. =Moody
Best bet: Ivica Zubac over 23.5 points+assists+rebounds. The Clippers have a chance to solidify their playoff spot by defeating the Trail Blazers. Zubac should benefit from Portland's season-long inability to contain opposing centers. He's surpassed 23.5 PAR in two of his last three games. The Trail Blazers rank 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Also, Portland gives up a lot of field goal attempts at the rim and allows opponents to make a high percentage of them. =Moody
Trend: The Clippers have incentive to win and avoid the Play-In bracket, while the Trail Blazers are taking tanking to an artistic level. The spread is thus understandably massive in this one, but the disparate motivations appear to corroborate the big number. -McCormick
BPI top probability to win (straight up)
1. LA Clippers (96.4%)
2. Minnesota Timberwolves (83%)
3. Denver Nuggets (82.3%)
