Give future Hall of Famer Kawhi Leonard credit for an outstanding 2025-26 season, as he averaged a career-best 27.9 PPG for the LA Clippers at age 34, and then emerged largely unscathed from offseason controversy to earn a new, generous two-year contract with one of his former teams, the Toronto Raptors. The Raptors feel like contenders again, and there is positive history as Leonard led them to an NBA championship in 2019.
Leonard not only carried the Clippers last season, but he finished among the top 10 fantasy options for roto/categories formats on the ESPN Player Rater, and just outside the top 10 in points leagues. Leonard incredibly managed to participate in 65 of the team's 82 games, and he delivered considerably better statistics than the year prior, when he looked just about done as a top fantasy option. He wasn't. Leonard played great.
Still, this is a player who turned 35 years old this summer, and with a long history of missing myriad games. The Raptors are built around terrific, young SF/SG Scottie Barnes, with Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett leading an underrated, deep backcourt, and hopefully anchor C Jakob Poeltl plays more minutes and more games than last season. The Raptors are making the playoffs in the challenging Eastern Conference whether Leonard plays in 60 games or not for the third time in the past seven seasons.
Investing in older NBA players with a history of missing games is dangerous in fantasy, regardless of format. Everyone else may have Philadelphia 76ers SF/PF LeBron James leading the avoid list, but James isn't going in the top 25 of most drafts. Leonard is. Thanks to the presence of Barnes, Leonard's usage in Toronto will precipitously decline. He will shoot less, and he will see fewer minutes. Fantasy picks in the first three rounds should come with some durability and performance assurances. Leonard is too much risk for me.
Welcome to the latest annual "Do Not Draft" list, repeatedly populated with brittle players that many fantasy managers dream about with little acknowledgement of risk. Hey, it's the truth!
Some of these names you will recognize from prior editions. The proper intention of this list is to analyze players with higher ADP marks than this analyst prefers, perhaps for various reasons. This is about value. There is far less risk of Kawhi Leonard in Round 5. In Round 2, no way.
Anyway, here are other players whose ADP doesn't seem to match actual value:
LaMelo Ball, PG, Minnesota Timberwolves: He led this list a season ago because he hadn't managed to play in 50 games in any of his past three seasons. Then Ball performed in 72 games last year. Problem solved! Well, not really. The Hornets heavily managed his minutes and his usage. Ball averaged barely 20 PPG. He was more efficient, but he still can't shoot well from the field. Superstar Anthony Edwards runs the Timberwolves show. Ball is an odd fit, and Round 3 is too early for him.
Anthony Davis, C, Washington Wizards: We don't need to waste major time on this one. Davis performed in 71 games during the past two seasons. He is an old 33, with a long history of injuries, and some wonder if he even wants to be on the Wizards. Trae Young is a risk in the first few rounds as well, but I have more confidence in Young playing enough (whatever that really means) and piling on some numbers, notably in assists.
Joel Embiid, C, Philadelphia 76ers: This one is all about how soon you must invest to get a player who has missed more than half of Philly's games each of the past three seasons. The 76ers are loaded. They need Embiid healthy for a playoff run, only. Embiid in Round 5 still feels too early. Volume is king. We already know the franchise has a plan for sitting him in back-to-back situations, carefully monitoring minutes and usage, etc. Hard pass.
But speaking of kings, I don't think LeBron James belongs here on this list. He can average the same 20 PPG, 6 RPG and 7 APG he did last season again, even with some reduced minutes, and I can see 70 games played. James is just different, folks. Meanwhile, guards Tyrese Maxey and Jaylen Brown may average 50 PPG between them. Brown certainly cannot average 28.7 PPG again, but nobody reasonably expects he will. Methinks James in Round 4 really isn't so bad. Embiid is the one to avoid.
Zion Williamson, PF/C, New Orleans Pelicans: Full credit to Zion for finding his way into 62 games last season, the second-most in his disappointing six-year career, but the numbers weren't remotely worth the investment. Williamson embarrassingly does not rebound much at all (5.7 RPG), he suddenly stopped passing the basketball (3.2 APG?!?) and he hit only one more 3-point field goal than you, me, Michael Jordan and Mike Schmidt. One! This was not a top 100 player for roto/categories formats last season, and he is going in Round 6? Why?
Damian Lillard, PG, Portland Trail Blazers: We can acknowledge both this man's wonderful career and his risk coming off a torn Achilles at age 36, right? I don't think the situations with Indiana Pacers PG Tyrese Haliburton and Lillard are so similar, even though they suffered the same injury. One player is considerably older than the other, and that player must deal with a crowded backcourt. This is more likely a goodbye tour for Lillard.
While we are here, let's just throw his new, vastly overrated teammate Ja Morant into the fray. The Grizzlies tried to unload this fellow for years, and nobody was interested. Morant is an exciting, highlight-type player, of course, but he played in only 20 games last season, and 79 over the past three seasons. There is little reason to expect durability in his future, or big numbers. Morant is not averaging 25 PPG again, folks.
Mikal Bridges, SG/SF, New York Knicks: Bridges never misses playing a game, and that is how he ends up appearing to earn his relatively lofty ADP status. Yes, Bridges was a top 30 points league scorer last season, because volume matters. Still, it is tough to justify a top 50 roto/categories pick on a player -- a wonderful real-life player who played a key role in a championship run -- who averages 14.4 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.7 APG. We need considerably more in the numbers department.
Lauri Markkanen, SF/PF, and Jaren Jackson, PF/C, Utah Jazz: Markkanen tends to go several rounds prior to Jackson will, but not only has the former's games played dropped each of the past three seasons, it is hard to imagine him averaging 26.7 PPG again, not with the franchise adding so much talent around him. Markkanen doesn't do much else than score and, for a roto/categories format, that is merely one category.
Jackson is also questionable for durability, and he has never seemed remotely interested in being much of a rebounder, despite being a noteworthy shot blocker. Then again, Jackson isn't blocking close to three shots per game anymore. He did it once. I can't find motivation in securing a frontcourt player who ranked 151st in total rebounds.
Kristaps Porzingis, PF/C, Golden State Warriors: If you think this is a season the well-traveled Porzingis suits up more than 51 times, good for you. It has happened in two of the past six seasons. His reduced ADP reflects the risk, but still, he isn't remotely close to Embiid in producing numbers when he does play. Porzingis doesn't score and rebound enough to deal with all this, even in the second half of a fantasy draft.
