One area of the schedule that the Forecaster focuses on is the number of games played in a period, and often that is what fantasy managers focus on the most. However, the other portion of what the Forecaster looks at shouldn't be ignored, and that's the caliber of opponents.
The Forecaster algorithm focuses on team statistics when evaluating opponent strength, which is good, but when you're considering your own roster you should look even more specifically at how opponents match up against certain positions.
For example, the Atlanta Hawks are extraordinarily generous to opposing centers. They have given up the second-most fantasy points in the NBA to opposing centers on the season, but the most over five- and 10-game stretches by a large margin. They seem to be the personal slump busters for centers, allowing even the ice-cold Andre Drummond (6.3 points on 22.2 percent shooting from the field, 14 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.4 combined steals/blocks in three games prior to Atlanta) to explode for 12 points, 19 rebounds, 8 assists and 4 combined steals/blocks on Thursday.
The Orlando Magic have struggled against opposing point guards, giving up by far the most fantasy points to the position over the past 10 games. They were lit up by Lou Williams for 31 points and eight assists off the bench Thursday.
When you are making tough roster decisions ahead of the next period, take a look at these secondary factors. An outstanding matchup or two in a given week can be enough to possibly start a good player playing only a few games or stream a lesser player with more games and better matchups.
Fantasy Forecaster: Dec. 18-24
For those new to the forecaster chart, here are some explanations: Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.
The week ahead
There are 16 teams with four games this week, 12 with three and two with only a pair. The majority of teams play four games, which is a bit surprising since there are no games on Sunday, Dec. 24. The games are concentrated over six days, which could have ramifications for players who have playing time restrictions.
For instance, the Philadelphia 76ers play four games next week but have games on both Monday and Tuesday. Joel Embiid has been on a minutes restriction for his entire career, preventing him from playing both halves of a back-to-back. That makes it unlikely that you get four full games from him next week. He produces enough to still warrant a start with only three games on the ledger, but this is the kind of thing to consider when planning your upcoming week.
The Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers are the two teams with only two games in the next period. While LeBron James is a start-and-forget player, the next tier down makes for more difficult decisions. Do you still start Drummond and Kevin Love? Probably, as it's unlikely that most teams have four-game bench players capable of outproducing them, though it is worth noting that Drummond has struggled of late outside of that game against Atlanta. Both probably stay in most lineups.
But what about further down? Players like Tobias Harris or Reggie Jackson who are regularly utilized as fantasy starters are likely to be on the bench next week. You'll need to think about some streaming options.
From our Forecaster, there is only one team that measures out with a perfect "10" rating, indicating that they have a combination of a lot of games and a relatively easy schedule: The Golden State Warriors. However, there are six teams with solid "7" scores that are worth looking at more closely. These teams -- the Denver Nuggets, LA Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz -- might be good places to look for streaming options.
Here are a few names from this group to consider this week.
Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets (available in 56.2 percent of leagues): Murray has averaged 19.4 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 2.9 3-pointers and 0.6 blocks in seven December games, thus far. The Nuggets have some strong offensive players who potentially returning from injuries soon, including Nikola Jokic (ankle) and Will Barton (back), but Murray still has the chance to produce in four solid matchups.
Milos Teodosic, LA Clippers (available in 83.7 percent of leagues): Teodosic has played two games on a relative minutes restriction since returning from a long injury layoff, averaging 10 points with 6.5 rebounds and 3.0 steals in 23 minutes. He's sitting out Friday, the first half of a back-to-back, for rest purposes, but is expected back with an expanded role Saturday. The Clippers have a back-to-back next week, as well, but it's not until the end of the week, so it's unclear if he will have to sit again.
Al-Farouq Aminu, Portland Trail Blazers (available in 77.3 percent of leagues): Aminu has averaged 12.8 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.8 made 3-pointers in his past four games. He played more than 30 minutes in three of those four games and seems to be at full health now in a Portland frontcourt that has been missing center Jusuf Nurkic (ankle).
