As pointed out last week, the Forecaster deals with trends over the course of the season, with input from the previous 10 games as well. However, injuries and subsequent lineup changes provide opportunities in addition to the Forecaster.
This week, there are several teams dealing with massive injury absences. The Boston Celtics have been dealing with Kyrie Irving's knee, Jaylen Brown's concussion and Marcus Smart's thumb. The Golden State Warriors will play on Friday night with Stephen Curry (ankle), Kevin Durant (ribs) and Klay Thompson (thumb) all on the bench. The Cleveland Cavaliers are without all of their starting bigs, with Kevin Love (hand), Larry Nance (hamstring), Tristan Thompson (ankle) and Cedi Osman (hip) all sidelined. And the Miami Heat are without Hassan Whiteside (hip), Dwyane Wade (hamstring) and possibly Josh Richardson (Q, foot).
Thus, there are players on each of those teams that don't usually get to produce that will be in position to do so in extended minutes. Of the teams listed, only the Heat and the Cavs play four games next week. Both, in fact, have Forecaster rankings of '7', just beneath the score that would have had them mentioned in the section below, but high enough to suggest that they have pretty favorable schedules for next week anyway. Thus, let's look at some of the most eligible pick-ups from those two teams for next week.
James Johnson, Miami Heat (52.8 percent available), Kelly Olynyk (70.2 percent available) and/or Bam Adebayo (94.8 percent available), Miami Heat: Johnson is a do-everything type when he gets minutes, Olynyk is the best scorer of the crew, and Adebayo is the rebounder/defensive role player. All three had positive games in their last outing, and that is sustainable for as long as Whiteside is out.
Terry Rozier, Boston Celtics (58.0 percent available): This is a bonus non-Cavs/Heat pick just due to upside. The Celtics only have three games during this period, but if Irving continues to sit, especially with Smart done for the season, Rozier has major potential to produce. He scored 21 points with 9 assists, 5 rebounds, 4 3-pointers, 3 blocks and 2 steals in 48 minutes of a double-overtime win on Thursday.
Tyler Johnson, Miami Heat (81.4 percent available) and/or Wayne Ellington (91.3 percent available): Goran Dragic is the primary perimeter producer for the Heat, but either of Johnson and/or Ellington have the ability to either step in for him or supplement his production on a given night.
Jeff Green, Cleveland Cavaliers (96.8 percent available): Green started at center by default on Thursday, beating out Ante Zizic for the honor. He responded with 16 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 1 3-pointer in 34 minutes of action, and that level of production is sustainable for as long as the other bigs are out.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.
The week ahead
This is another week when every team plays either three (12 teams) or four (18 teams) games. This week, since the majority of teams have four games it makes it difficult to rely upon players with only three. However, again, the Forecaster helps to differentiate schedule caliber beyond just game count.
The Dallas Mavericks ('1'), Orlando Magic ('1'), Sacramento Kings ('1') and Phoenix Suns ('2') have the lowest team ratings on the Forecaster this week, indicating a combination of weak team offense, tough scheduling considerations and tough opposing teams. The Mavericks have the most difficult path in my estimation, as they face a playoffs-fighting Pelicans team on the road before matching up with the buzzsaw that is the Utah Jazz defense. While each team has three games, and thus are technically playable, I plan to fade all Mavericks on any of my teams next week.
At the other extreme, there are three teams with very high Forecaster scores: the LA Clippers ('10'), the Houston Rockets ('8') and the Memphis Grizzlies ('8'). All three have four games, but the Clippers measure out with clearly the best schedule. As usual, here are a few streaming options from these highly Forecasted teams:
• JaMychal Green, Memphis Grizzlies (62.0 percent available): I'm not really sure why Green is available so widely, as he has double-doubles in eight of his last 11 games and is averaging a double-double during that stretch with 12.3 points (44.5 FG%, 75.0 FT%), 10.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists and 1.3 combined blocks/steals.
• Austin Rivers, LA Clippers (63.0 percent available): Rivers is a scoring guard that has the green light for the Clipers. During his last seven games, he has averaged 16.4 points (49.0 FG%, 72.7 FT%), 4.1 assists, 3.6 rebounds, 1.9 3-pointers and 1.1 steals per game.
• Montrezl Harrell, LA Clippers (73.4 percent available): Harrell has scored in double-digits in 11 straight games, averaging 15.7 points (70.0 FG%, 70.2 FT%), 4.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists and 1.0 combined blocks/steals during that stretch.
