This will be the final NBA Forecaster of the season, as the final period actually stretches over eight days between Tuesday, April 3, and Wednesday, April 11 (with no NBA games on Monday, April 2).
Over the past few weeks, we've discussed how motivation levels and injury substitutions can create opportunities for value plays that the Forecaster isn't equipped to identify. But those things will be exacerbated during this final session, as teams will be flat out sitting many of their best players to either rest for the playoffs or shut down early for even slight injuries. Much like in Week 17 in the NFL, playing time is always a huge question mark during the final week of the NBA season.
As we get closer to the end, though, the playoff standings are starting to come into slightly more focus. And there are already some key players who we know will be shut down for at least chunks of, if not the entirety of the rest of the season. Thus, let's take a look at some potential streaming options of value based upon player availability.
Anthony Tolliver, Detroit Pistons (98.2 percent available): Blake Griffin has been declared out for at least the next week with a bone bruise in his heel, and he could be done for the season. Tolliver has been playing well of late, averaging 18.0 points, 3.7 rebounds, 3.3 3-pointers, 2.0 assists and 1.0 combined blocks/steals during his past three games and now has an expanded opportunity as the starting power forward in Griffin's place.
Markelle Fultz, Philadelphia 76ers (70.9 percent available): The 76ers will have to finish the season without Joel Embiid, who fractured the orbital of his left eye and suffered a concussion after a collision with Fultz. This will put more responsibility on players like Ben Simmons and Dario Saric, but both of them are almost universally owned. Fultz is the other prized young talent on the team, and he is slowly being worked back into the lineup after a long battle with a shoulder issue. The 76ers have six games over the last two weeks, and Fultz could see increasingly more minutes and responsibility down the stretch.
Quinn Cook, Golden State Warriors (52.5 percent available): Cook has been filling in admirably for Stephen Curry for the past couple of weeks, and should be universally owned with Curry officially done for the regular season. Cook has averaged 20.6 points, 5.1 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 2.9 3-pointers and 1.0 steals during his past seven games.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled, as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.
The week ahead
Because of the unique two-week schedule, the numbers of games for this session are unusually high. Five teams play six games, 20 play five games, and five teams play only four times. While it's trivial to note that it's much better for a team to play six games than four in a session, the Forecaster finds that in this last session, the difficulty of the schedules and the matchups are often more important than the raw number of games for estimating fantasy production.
There are very few teams with an extremely low rating this week, with only the Charlotte Hornets registering a 1 in the Forecaster with their four-game schedule. The Minnesota Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns both registered a 3 with four games in the period, while the New York Knicks registered a 3 with five games upcoming. The Sacramento Kings and the Oklahoma City Thunder are the other two teams with only four games in this period, and both earned ratings of 4 on the Forecaster.
There are no obvious fades here, as even the Hornets have players like Kemba Walker or Dwight Howard, whom you likely will start if you are confident that they will play. But, as always, treat players on teams with lower scores and fewer games with caution when setting your lineups.
At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Warriors and LA Clippers scored the only perfect 10 on the Forecaster with "only" five games each. The Houston Rockets scored a 9, while the Cleveland Cavaliers, Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks all scored an 8 with five games each. The Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors were the only team with six games to score as high as an 8, while each of the Orlando Magic (7), 76ers (6) and Los Angeles Lakers (5) had lesser Forecaster scores even with six games.
Here are some streamable options worth considering from those teams:
Gerald Green, Houston Rockets (93.7 percent available): Green has been instant offense for the Rockets ever since he was signed earlier this season. His production increases into very useful range with minutes, and he's looking at potential starter minutes for the rest of the season. Green has averaged 17.7 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.0 3-pointers and 2.3 assists in 31.3 minutes during his past three games, he will be starting on Friday in place of the resting Chris Paul and Eric Gordon, and he could be in for plenty of minutes down the stretch.
Fred VanVleet, Toronto Raptors (91.6 percent available): The Raptors are significantly ahead of the injury-depleted Celtics for the top seed in the Eastern Conference, and it seems likely that they will clinch early during this session. Once they do, it would be logical for them to start resting veterans, which should open up time for their young bench players to produce. VanVleet has already been productive off the bench, averaging 15.4 points, 4.0 assists, 3.6 3-pointers, 2.4 rebounds and 1.0 steals in 27.8 minutes during his past five games. If he gets even more opportunity, those numbers could potentially go up in this last session.
Austin Rivers, LA Clippers (53.7 percent available): Rivers continues to be available in the majority of leagues, despite averaging 15.9 points, 3.9 assists, 2.1 3-pointers, 2.4 rebounds and 1.8 steals during his past nine games.
