Football statistics can prove hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
The 2016, 2017 and 2018 versions of this article provide overwhelming evidence:
There are 38 names here, and in 35 cases, the player scored fewer touchdowns the following season. All three exceptions came during a historically offensive 2018 season. Even if we cross off players who barely saw the field (David Johnson, Karlos Williams), the evidence remains extremely strong.
This is far from surprising, as we've learned over the years that players simply can't sustain extremely high scoring rates. It's not a knock on their talent; scoring is simply more about opportunity.
You want proof? Good -- I have it.
