Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
During the 2009 to 2019 seasons, there were 129 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches before managing at least 50 touches the very next season. Of those 129 instances, 94 (72.9%) scored more touchdowns the next season.
Focusing on the 41 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first season, 32 (78.0%) scored more touchdowns the next season. Of the 14 who scored either one or zero touchdowns, 11 (78.6%) found the end zone more often the next season. Jason Avant (2010-11 and 2011-12) and Danny Amendola (2018-19) were responsible for the three exceptions.
