Before mining the draft for valuable sleepers, potential overachievers and breakout candidates, first you have to grab the Shohei Ohtani, Jahmyr Gibbs, Taylor Swift, if you will, of the fantasy hockey world. The megastar to drive your team bus by reliably piling up more points on the daily than anyone else.
I can't remember another season where whittling down the list of eligible candidates to go first overall was so clear-cut. While I forced myself to make positive arguments for several other players as a necessary exercise, each member of the following quartet always emerged superior. So, in loose order, here's who to draft if you're fortunate to do so early on.
Please note that each player's strength is assessed within the framework of ESPN's standard H2H points game, in step with the following formula:
Skaters:
Goals = 2 points
Assists = 1 point
Shots and Hits = 0.1 points
Blocked shots and Special-teams points = 0.5 points
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Nathan MacKinnon, F, Colorado Avalanche
I'll keep this short because his numbers are superlatively sweet. The Colorado center checks all relevant fantasy boxes, most with extra aplomb. Firing on net more often than anyone else for the third straight year, MacKinnon racked up 74 assists and 30 power-play points on 350 shots, while earning a sufficient number of hits and blocked shots to satisfy any demanding fantasy player. In this space last year, I suggested managers draft MacKinnon first overall and "hope he scores closer to 51 [goals] like in 2023-24." Well, he rifled home 53. Only Connor McDavid equaled MacKinnon in averaging 3.2 fantasy points per game in ESPN's standard fantasy league.
So, once more with feeling: Draft him first overall and hope he scores near 53 like last year. A total of 45 or so would also feel digestible enough.
Nikita Kucherov, F, Tampa Bay Lightning
Bit more to say here. A few weeks after securing his arguably overdue second Hart Trophy, the league's ultimate playmaker is once more ready to set the fantasy hockey world alight. No regular skater averaged more points per game (1.71) than Kucherov in 2025-26, not even that fella in Edmonton who flirted with the 140 total points mark. Exceptional terrain the elite winger might've reached himself had he not missed six games.
Never mind Kucherov doesn't fire on net as much as MacKinnon or Connor McDavid or bolster other nonscoring fantasy categories in any significant way. It's all about the production with this guy, and not just assists. In addition to providing 86 helpers this past run, he also has 44 goals to show for 76 contests. All the while delivering his fortunate managers with an average of 3.1 fantasy points/game, sharing rarefied air with only MacKinnon and McDavid in the 3.0-plus club. No reason to believe we're not in for similar numbers in 2026-27.
Plus, the 33-year-old is reliable enough nowadays. Since missing the entire 2020-21 regular season -- before, ahem, winning his second Stanley Cup a few weeks later -- then half a campaign to follow, Kucherov is serving as remarkably durable. There isn't a fantasy manager on the planet who's going to gripe about any player missing only 11 total games through four seasons. Especially when they're banging out 1.68 points/game three calendars running. Oh, and guess who's entering a contract year with the salary cap skyrocketing? Right. Even the fiercest competitors on the planet aren't immune to such extra incentivization. After MacKinnon, the Lightning star is my top fantasy pick.
Justification for selecting Kucherov first overall: His prospective power-play production. Last year's "measly" haul of 37 points with the extra skater falls well short of totals from previous seasons. Then there's the rather significant gap in quality between Tampa Bay's top unit and its second. Projecting that the elite winger sees a lot of time with the man-advantage and positively regresses back to his personal mean -- 50 power-play points through three previous campaigns -- could rationalize picking him first overall.
Macklin Celebrini, F, San Jose Sharks
It's all about the ceiling with this young man. After erupting for 45 goals and 70 assists in his second NHL season and more than holding his own at the Olympics as a teenager, Celebrini is just getting going. Growing up together with teammates Will Smith (21), Michael Misa (19) and Igor Chernyshov (20), the Ted Lindsay Award finalist is expected to take another step forward as a bigger and stronger player, equally if not bettering, his outstanding sophomore numbers. For starters, don't be surprised if he shoots more often on net, eclipsing the 300-shot mark for the first time. Proud of his 200-foot game, Celebrini could also conceivably improve on last year's total of 53 blocked shots. Those half-points add up fast.
The one fantasy concern lies in the goal-scoring department. Owning a 15.7% shooting percentage and, according to Evolving Hockey, an expected goals rate of 35 ixG, the Sharks center found the back of the net 45 times. Bit of a chasm there. Either Celebrini is just that much better, and therefore more accurate (completely plausible), or some good fortune was in play. My point is that this is why some models project Celebrini to bank approximately 40 goals -- and not 50 -- in 2026-27. Still, the lad's potential is too ripe to disregard. I'm grabbing him without hesitation, once McKinnon and Kucherov are off the board.
Justification for selecting Celebrini first overall: The Ivar Stenberg factor. Coach Ryan Warsovsky now has another option to toss alongside Celebrini at even strength and on the power play. Maybe the 2026 second overall draft pick serves as a delightful fit that brings even more out of the burgeoning superstar. If not, Warsofsky has many other talented and maturing options, even with William Eklund gone for Ottawa.
Connor McDavid, F, Edmonton Oilers
I know what you're thinking: What fantasy manager in their right mind would bypass the best player in our known universe with the second or, my goodness, third draft pick in any conventional league. I get the bewilderment, but hear me out. First of all, this teeny slide is less a knock on McDavid himself and more a reflection of the three preceding names and their dynamite potential in 2026-27.
Then there's the Oilers' power play to think about. Leading the league with a success rate of 30.6%, Edmonton's special teams unit will be hard-pressed to replicate that outstanding figure. Which means McDavid can't again count on nearing a tally of 54 points with the extra skater. Of course he makes Edmonton's unit better. Still, another 54-plus is a big ask for a player who has averaged about half a power-play point per game in his career, including the ridiculous Mario Lemieux-esque haul of 71 in 2021-22.
Another fantasy concern is the influence of the new guy behind the bench. Recognized for his commitment to greater defensive accountability and balancing lines and ice time, Mike Babcock isn't a fan of wild, open offensive play. Of course, he's still going to let McDavid cook, but more likely with the gas turned up to eight instead of 10. This is the coach both the megastar center and Leon Draisaitl wanted. While they won't give a lick about reduced personal numbers if it leads to a Cup, fantasy managers should still slightly temper their expectations.
Justification for selecting McDavid first overall: Because he's Connor McDavid, that's why. In the face of each logic-driven and exceptionally rational argument above, he could still magically score 140 points in 84 healthy games.
