The 16th edition of Champions Classic is here!
The doubleheader in Chicago begins with No. 2 Duke taking on No. 5 Michigan State (7 p.m. ET, ESPN), followed by No. 15 Kansas clashing with No. 24 Kentucky (9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).
In the first game, the Blue Devils will be seeking to add a 16th win against Tom Izzo, while the Spartans are looking to break a five-game losing streak against AP top-five opponents at neutral sites.
The second game is a battle between the two winningest programs in Division I history. Kentucky holds a winning record over Kansas at 10-7, though the Jayhawks currently have the projected No. 1 pick in the 2027 draft on the roster.
Who will walk away with a crucial early-season win? How could each team pull it off? ESPN's Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf break down keys for each game, as well as what we learned about each team at the end of the night.
Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils
7 p.m. ET, ESPN
How Michigan State could win: It starts with preseason All-American Jeremy Fears Jr., arguably the best point guard in the country and one of the favorites to win national player of the year. Though his biggest strength is as a passer, Fears is going to have to be more effective as a scorer than he was last December against Duke, when he went 0-for-10 from the field. If he can consistently put pressure on the Blue Devils, as a playmaker and as a scorer, while also dictating the tempo and style of the game, Michigan State will have an advantage.
The Spartans generally have to take care of the ball and win the transition battle. According to CBB Analytics, they had 56 fast-break points in their first two games (eighth in the country) this season, while Duke totaled 52 (18th in the country). Two key names to watch: Jasiah Jervis and Anton Bonke. Jervis, a 6-foot-4 freshman, led the team in scoring against Toledo, giving Izzo's group a consistent perimeter presence with four 3-pointers. Meanwhile, Charlotte transfer Bonke has played only 33 minutes this season, but he is averaging 10.0 points and 10.0 rebounds through two games.
How Duke could win: The Blue Devils' success this season starts on defense; they're the only team in the country to rank in the top 10 in both block percentage and steal percentage. They protect the rim with 6-11 Patrick Ngongba II and 7-2 Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje, while their perimeter rotation is all between 6-3 and 6-7. The Blue Devils create turnovers and runouts at that end of the floor and then get downcourt quickly, ranking second nationally in lowest average possession length at KenPom. Will Duke be able to get Fears out of rhythm?
Offensively, the Blue Devils could have success getting Michigan State in foul trouble. The Spartans committed 21 fouls against Quinnipiac, with the Bobcats taking 24 free throws. Toledo attempted 29 free throws, and Spartans big men Cam Ward, Ethan Taylor and Jesse McCulloch all committed at least three fouls. This is where Ngongba could shine: Besides having the most productive game of his career Thursday against Coastal Carolina (28 points, nine rebounds), he's also been to the free throw line 16 times in two games. This also feels like a spot for John Blackwell. The Wisconsin transfer had a quiet opener but scored 15 points against Coastal Carolina and, in February with the Badgers, he had 24 against Michigan State.
» Read more: How Duke is using heartbreaking losses as fuel for national title run
What a win for either team would mean: Duke blew out Tennessee and Kansas in the preseason, but Tuesday actually counts, so it will be the first chance to see Boumtje Boumtje against legitimate high-major size. Are he and Ngongba the dominant interior duo that the first couple of games suggested? Are Cayden Boozer, Caleb Foster and Deron Rippey Jr. up for the Fears test? If the answer to both questions is yes, Duke's potential gets only higher.
But Duke is already considered a national championship favorite, right there in the top tier of the sport alongside Florida and Illinois. Despite being a top-five team, Michigan State is not yet in that upper echelon of title contenders. On Tuesday, the Spartans are looking for a marquee win to cement their championship potential. It's also a great measuring stick for Izzo's team, which also has Tennessee and Arkansas on the schedule before the end of the month. Knocking off Duke would give the Spartans much-needed momentum. -- Borzello
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Kentucky Wildcats
9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
How Kansas could win: Trey Kaufman-Renn -- yes, the Trey-Kaufman-Renn who played four seasons at Purdue after redshirting as a freshman and is now back for a sixth season -- might be the key to what happens both Tuesday night and throughout the season with the Jayhawks' national title hopes. His mobility as a 6-9 forward could be the greatest challenge for Kentucky to defend, as well as the biggest boost for the Jayhawks on the defensive end.
Although it's a small sample, Kaufman-Renn has already made his mark with this team. Through two games, the lineup of Kaufman-Renn (13.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG), Leroy Blyden Jr. (10.5 PPG) and Tyran Stokes (11.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG) is one of the top trios in the country, based on Evan Miya's efficiency rankings, coming in at seventh. The former Big Ten standout could create the mismatch on the court that overwhelms the Wildcats.
How Kentucky could win: With this the first major matchup in a crucial season for Mark Pope, a win might go a long way toward his job standing. The good news for this group is it has proved, thus far, that it has the potential to be elite offensively -- something Pope preached all summer. Yes, the Wildcats faced Manhattan and James Madison to start their season, but they made 37% of their 3-point attempts and 65% of their shots inside the arc in those games. Milan Momcilovic, who made 49% of his 3-point attempts last season, is 7-for-17 from beyond the arc to start the season. The former Iowa State star -- who is reportedly making $6 million at Kentucky -- will have to be more than a shooter to lead the Wildcats to a win. But if he can lead another efficient offensive effort, and NBA prospect Malachi Moreno (1.5 BPG last season) can be a rim protector against Kansas' talented forwards, Kentucky has a chance to get an early win over a potential Final Four team.
How important is this game for the 2027 NBA draft? This is the first national showcase for Stokes, the former five-star recruit and current projected No. 1 pick in the 2027 draft. The Champions Classic has been a key stage for top draft picks aiming to prove they can shine under the bright lights. Paolo Banchero, the No. 1 pick in 2022, finished with 22 points, seven rebounds and two steals in a win over Kentucky that season. Kansas lottery pick Gradey Dick had 14 points in a win over Duke a year later. Cooper Flagg, the reigning NBA Rookie of the Year and the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA draft, had 26 points in his team's loss to Kentucky in the 2024 edition. In Chicago, the Champions Classic could be a moment for Stokes -- in front of numerous scouts and NBA executives -- to solidify early that he's the best pro prospect in the world. A tough showing for Stokes could highlight some of the areas he'll need to address to lock up the top spot in June. -- Medcalf
