The hyperbole that surrounds a premier playoff pitching matchup has become a kind of baseball trope. There is just no better hook for an upcoming game than publicizing a battle between a pair of aces.
The reality is that, these days, if you watch game for that microbattle, you are almost invariably going to be disappointed. The game itself might turn out to be a classic, but chances are, one or both bullpens are going to play a key part in how the outcome is decided.
Let's consider this objectively, using the Bill James formula for game score, which rates the performance of a starting pitcher. The average game score is 50. This season, according to baseball-reference.com, there were 520 outings in which a starter had a score of at least 60, or a little less than one in three. There were 179 starts of 70 or better, 42 of at least 80 and just two that reached 90.
