For all the work done projecting the 2025 MLB season, we know the final standings aren't going to match the preseason forecasts.
The fun part is seeing the teams that emerge from this morass of rational prediction and become surprise stories -- the breakouts.
Last year we asked, What sort of traits do breakout teams tend to share? and applied those characteristics to spit out our list. The approach worked OK. Two of the five teams made major win leaps -- the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals. The Boston Red Sox improved in the win column but still landed at .500. Meanwhile, the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates repeated their precise win totals from 2023. Well, at least none of the five got worse or collapsed.
This year, we revamped our model -- using a simplified, player-centric approach. Namely: Which teams have a lot of players who might break out? We also folded in this question: What would a breakout season for a team even mean?
For teams that already project to be in the postseason, a breakout doesn't necessarily mean a greatly enhanced chance at getting into the bracket, but it might mean more of a shot at a division title, pennant or World Series. Conversely, for teams like the Chicago White Sox, a breakout might not mean much in terms of playing on when the regular season ends -- and because of those lower stakes, we're not including them among the "breakouts."
Two types of teams, then, seem built for this: (1) those that figure to use a lot of young players in important roles and (2) those with a number of key players coming off subpar or injury-marred seasons who project to bounce back.
Let's break down the breakouts.
