After a whirlwind spring training, the 2022 MLB season is upon us. This is a week for previews and forecasts, debuts and anticipation. It's a week for hope.
The realities of baseball being what they are, hope doesn't mean the same thing for the fans of all 30 teams. Not every team carries championship expectations. Aspirations, yes, but not expectations. After all, if you're a fan of a team that lost more than 100 games last season, expecting a title run in a few months is asking a lot.
Still, it's April, so let's focus more on the aspirations than the expectations, while giving a nod to both. As we've done in recent years, I'm going to present my final preseason team forecasts with the emphasis on the ultimate goal: a World Series crown. Teams have been divided into five tiers based on their probability of being the last club standing come autumn.
Each team's power rating is a measure of roster strength, expressed in terms of wins per 162 games. The title odds are determined with those power ratings used as the basis for 10,000 simulations of the season to come. Some teams' paths (and schedules) are more difficult than others, so the order of teams by title probability does not perfectly reflect their ranking by power rating.
I've also listed an "ETA" for each team's title chances, which is simply an estimate determined by a team's 2022 title tier. All teams in the same tier have the same ETA.
In addition to the data, I've offered a little commentary to speak to the aspirational. What would it take for that team to win it all this season? For some clubs, it's going to sound pie-eyed, but that's OK. Spring is the time for that. Besides, 26 of the 30 teams won at least one of the 10,000 simulations. For those 26 teams, we're saying there's a chance. For the others, we're going to say there's a chance anyway.
