When we learned during spring training about Shohei Ohtani's 2026 goal of winning the National League Cy Young Award, it was hard to know how realistic it was.
From an ability standpoint, it was more than doable. On a per-162-game basis, he had averaged a 13-7 record with a 3.00 ERA, 143 ERA+, 228 strikeouts and 5.5 bWAR entering this season. He would have to upgrade from that, but it was a great jumping-off point.
From a quantity standpoint, well, that's when questions arose. Ohtani has qualified for an ERA title just once. He pitches for the Los Angeles Dodgers, a team that has the luxury of slow-playing their starting pitchers until the postseason. And there was the considerable additional factor of Ohtani, as one of the game's greatest hitters, also being an MVP-caliber designated hitter.
Flash forward to now and Ohtani has been more like a full-time rotation ace -- and his results are better than ever. (It's been his hitting volume that has been turned down a tad.) In other words, the Cy Young objective for Ohtani is very much on the table. But the race for that honor in the NL is shaping up as a fierce one. You'll see that as we look at the 2026 award races in the first of our monthly check-ins.
As we go through the early pecking order for each honor, keep this much in mind in regard to the game's best player: If Ohtani does indeed win his first Cy Young Award, there is a very good chance he'll also take home his fourth straight Most Valuable Player Award.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Front-runner: Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (140.5 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Nick Kurtz, Athletics (135.0); 3. Shea Langeliers, Athletics (131.2); 4. Cody Bellinger, New York Yankees (129.3); 5. Kevin McGonigle, Detroit Tigers (128.1); 6. Aaron Judge, Yankees (127.4); 7. Miguel Vargas, Chicago White Sox (127.3); 8. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (127.1); 9. Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros (124.5); 10. Willson Contreras, Boston Red Sox (122.6)
Leader trend: Witt has had a pedestrian start at the plate, posting a batting average and on-base percentage in line with past seasons but with an isolated power number that's down -- or at least it will be until he goes on a power tear. So, why is Witt a strong early frontrunner in this category? He's just really, really good -- at everything. According to FanGraphs' DEF metric, Witt has been the most valuable defender in the major leagues. He is seventh in BSR, FanGraphs' bottom-line baserunning metric. He's a shortstop, with the positional value that goes with that designation.
Add it all up and of the 31.9 runs above replacement that Witt has put up -- resulting in a 3.3 fWAR figure that is a more than a half-win better than any other AL player -- only 8.2 of those runs come from batting. And his offensive numbers will almost certainly go up from here. This might be the year Witt lands his first AL MVP Award, though it would help matters if the struggling Royals mount some sort of playoff push over the months to come.
Biggest mover: Kurtz's AXE has jumped from 117.3 at the end of April, and his MLB rank has leaped from 51st to sixth. Kurtz is an on-base master. His OBP over three years at Wake Forest was .510. He only logged 33 games in the minors, but it was .440 there. So far in the majors, he's at .404 and leads the AL at .448 this season. Kurtz also is hitting .290 as a big leaguer, which in the current league context is elite. He is not a take-and-rake hitter.
Kurtz is down a bit in the power category, and while that should change, it's worth noting that his swing has been producing a lot more line drives this season at the expense of fly balls, which is why the homers are down even as his exit velocities are up. Kurtz's profile is one that plays anywhere at the top of the order. After leading off for much of the season, he has hit second or third in recent games. If this switch was made to put Kurtz in more run-producing spots, it's easy to understand. His RBI percentage -- runs driven in given the number of opportunities -- is among the 10 best in baseball.
Keep an eye on: This Awards Watch catches Judge at what's likely the nadir of a down cycle that included a stretch of 11 games without a homer or an RBI. Lest we forget that this is Aaron Judge, he snapped the streak with a game-winning homer against the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday. Despite the slump, he's still on pace to top 50 homers. It's just been a moderately bad month for Judge, one that is probably very bad news for the pitchers whom Judge will face in June.
National League
Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (150.2 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (137.0); 3. Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals (134.0); 4. Brice Turang, Milwaukee Brewers (130.9); 5. Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (130.8); 6. JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals (129.7); 7. Andy Pages, Dodgers (129.2); 8. Drake Baldwin, Braves (128.9); 9. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (126.4); 10. Xavier Edwards, Miami Marlins (125.7)
Leader trend: Ohtani has an easier path to winning his fourth straight MVP than he has to winning his first Cy Young. That's a strange sentence to write, and you couldn't write it about any other player, ever, but it applies here. Among NL hitters, Ohtani ranks in the top 10 to 12 in offense-only metrics such as runs created, offensive winning percentage and OPS+. That's really good but not at MVP level.
However, when you layer on the value of a pitcher with a 0.73 ERA over 49 innings, it's a combination impossible to match. As for the down season (for him) at the plate, his percentages are similar to those of 2022, when he logged a career-high 166 innings pitched for the Angels. So, maybe this is the penalty for deploying Ohtani as a full-fledged DH and a starting pitcher. Or perhaps more likely, his early hitting percentages are going to improve. If, or when, that happens, Ohtani's enormous early edge in the MVP race will only grow.
Biggest mover: With a torrid May, Carroll has positioned himself for the third top-10 MVP finish in his five seasons as a big leaguer and is, for now, the most likely candidate to seize the opportunity if Ohtani were to falter or turn up injured. Carroll began the month with a solid overall ranking in AXE at No. 39 but jumped to fifth across all of MLB after his two triples on Sunday. Carroll is now on pace for 25 triples. No player has had that many in 101 years; Kiki Cuyler, in 1925, was the last to do it.
It's kind of silly to quote paces when it comes to triples, which don't exactly accumulate in a steady, predictable way. But consider this: Not only does Carroll play home games in MLB's most triple-friendly park, per Statcast park factors, but including road trips to Colorado, San Francisco and Kansas City, 65 of Carroll's 110 possible remaining games would come in four of the majors' five most triple-friendly venues. A big triple total won't win you an MVP, but it is the kind of historical curiosity that turns heads, which would, in turn, call attention to Carroll's impressive overall production, not to mention his exciting style of play.
Keep an eye on: The sudden maturation of Walker has been a sight to behold. If you've seen him at the plate much this season, you know it's not just a matter of a numbers spike. Walker simply looks like a premier hitter after two years of very much not looking like one. His approach is greatly improved (fewer K's, more walks), and his quality of contact has been elite (98th percentile exit velocity). Walker now commands a plate appearance in a way he rarely did during his disappointing 2024 and 2025 seasons.
Now, Walker resembles the hitter we thought he'd be by now, back when he broke in at age 21 armed with hyperbolic scouting reports and a solid rookie season. The forecasts suggest negative regression from here, and it's not hard to understand why. His OPS+ (176) simply doesn't track with the 89 he'd put up in more than 1,000 plate appearances entering this season. But this Walker is not that Walker.
Cy Young
American League
Front-runner: Cam Schlittler, Yankees (145.8 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Davis Martin, White Sox (141.2); 3. Parker Messick, Cleveland Guardians (131.9); 4. Jose Soriano, Angels (131.8); 5. Nick Martinez, Rays (130.8); 6. Louis Varland, Toronto Blue Jays (126.1); 7. Casey Mize, Tigers (124.3); 8. Dylan Cease, Blue Jays (124.0); 9. Max Fried, Yankees (123.6); 10. Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays (122.9)
Leader trend: A quick reminder that, a year ago at this time, only those deep into prospect lists knew who Cam Schlittler was. Now, he arguably has been the Yankees' most valuable player, especially considering the needs of New York's injury-ravaged rotation. Leading the AL in ERA (1.50), ERA+ (277) and WHIP (0.864), Schlittler has shown that his electric 2025 postseason was no fluke.
Dominance is the word that describes Schlittler best. His strikeouts-minus-walks percentage (24.5%) ranks fourth in the majors, one spot ahead of Paul Skenes. When you pound the strike zone with swing-and-miss stuff, that's dominance. The AL Cy Young leaderboard is pretty wild looking, but Schlittler is legit. The only question is how he might respond to what hopefully will be the highest innings totals of his young career. Last season, he threw 164 innings between the majors, minors and the postseason. He's on pace for more than 200 this season, and that's before we get to October.
Biggest mover: Every question you might have about whether the surprising White Sox are real, you can ask at the player level about Davis Martin. Nothing Martin, 29, had done to this point of his career portended what he has done over the first two months this season. His AL-leading seven wins match his 2025 season total. He has more than halved his ERA (2.04, down from 4.10). And he has sliced his walks while upping his strikeout rate to the tune of three whiffs per nine innings.
Fluke? Maybe, but only a little. His expected ERA (3.56, per Statcast) doesn't completely back up his ERA, but his overall metrics are strong, including a 95th percentile rating in walk percentage. The arsenal is different, and it has resulted in excellent start-by-start consistency. We'll see how things evolve, but right now, Martin looks like a resurgent pitcher on a resurgent team.
Keep an eye on: No, Varland isn't going to win the AL Cy Young Award, but relievers so rarely crack the top 10 in pitching AXE that we should acknowledge him while we can. Ironically, for all the early buzz about San Diego's Mason Miller mounting a Cy Young run, AXE likes Varland, by a hair, as the season's top reliever so far. Varland's 0.65 ERA speaks for itself. But what boosts him in this system is the context: Varland leads all pitchers in win probability added (2.4) by a healthy margin over second-place Chase Burns (2.0). Miller is at 1.7, and he has a lower average leverage index than that of Varland.
National League
Front-runner: Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies (149.9 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers (139.9); 3. Chase Burns, Reds (135.7); 4. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (134.0); 5. Max Meyer, Marlins (129.3); 6. Chris Sale, Braves (127.7); 7. Bryce Elder, Braves (126.2); 8. Kyle Harrison, Brewers (126.0); 9. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (125.8); 10. Antonio Senzatela, Colorado Rockies (124.3)
Leader trend: The version of AXE we use in the Cy Young section is just pitcher AXE -- comparing pitchers to pitchers. The MVP and Rookie of the Year sections plug each player's production into the overall player pool and includes hitting, fielding, baserunning, pitching -- the whole ball of wax. But other than Ohtani, we won't list pitchers in the MVP section unless we get late into the season and a hurler seems to have real MVP momentum.
Sanchez isn't likely to win the MVP Award, because even if he separates himself from every non-Ohtani hitter, he's still got to overcome Ohtani's hitting/pitching combo. As of now, Sanchez's 140.1 overall AXE ranks third in baseball, behind Ohtani and Witt. Sanchez began May at 119.8, ranking 33rd, but he has taken more of a leap than any other player this month. Sanchez finished second in the NL Cy Young race last season, and he has been much better so far in 2026. So, when we say Ohtani has a clearer path to the MVP than the Cy Young, there is one big reason: Cristopher Sanchez.
Biggest mover: Other than Sanchez, it's Misiorowski, who continues to generate headlines related to his velocity every time he pitches. Whether it's max velo or the consistency with which he reaches triple digits, we simply haven't seen a starting pitcher throw this hard this often before.
Brewers manager Pat Murphy recently said, "This isn't about velo. That's just one piece of the pie, and there's probably 16 or 17 pieces in that pitching pie."
That colorful metaphor was to underscore the idea that the focus for Misiorowski isn't lighting up Statcast but becoming a well-rounded pitcher. Well, consider this: In 2024, as a minor leaguer, Misiorowski threw first-pitch strikes just 42% of the time, per FanGraphs. This season, that number is 65%.
Keep an eye on: While Ohtani has pitched like a full-time starter when he pitches, he hasn't pitched as often as the NL's other aces. Seven of his eight starts have come on at least six days' rest, leaving Ohtani on pace to log just 150 innings even though he has been throwing more than six frames per outing. When you filter out Cy Young-winning relievers, the shortened 2020 season and Rick Sutcliffe's 1984 honor, when he won in the NL based on his 150 post-trade innings for the Cubs, the low-water mark for a Cy Young starter is 167 innings by Corbin Burnes in 2021.
That's not to say it's impossible for Ohtani to mount a strong Cy Young campaign without qualifying for the ERA title (minimum of 162 innings). But given the landscape in the 2026 NL, it would be hard to overcome. Besides the star power/production combos of Sanchez and Misiorowski, let's not forget about Skenes, currently 15th in the NL with a 121.9 AXE. If Ohtani really is going to do this, the Dodgers might have to shorten up the periods of rest between his starts later in the season.
But would they do that?
Rookie of the Year
American League
Front-runner: Kevin McGonigle, Tigers (128.1 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Parker Messick, Guardians (125.6); 3. Munetaka Murakami, White Sox (119.1); 4. Trey Yesavage, Blue Jays (115.0); 5. Chase DeLauter, Guardians (111.0); 6. Tristan Peters, White Sox (110.3); 7. Samuel Basallo, Baltimore Orioles (109.0); 8. Travis Bazzana, Guardians (108.5); 9. Payton Tolle, Red Sox (107.9); 10. Brandon Valenzuela, Blue Jays (106.9)
Leader trend: The AL is rife with rookies not just having excellent seasons but making a huge impact in the league's playoff races. Detroit's McGonigle leads the way statistically, though in terms of the Rookie of the Year race, the betting markets currently like Murakami. And indeed, the White Sox slugger is on pace to top 50 homers. If that happens, McGonigle might be in trouble, especially if the White Sox continue to rank ahead of the Tigers in the AL Central race.
Still, McGonigle has been one of the AL's best players -- not just one of the best rookies -- so far, and the hype that accompanied his ascension has been more than justified. At 21, he has the approach at the plate of a veteran -- and not a 2026 veteran but one of 30 years ago who would be counted on to walk more than he strikes out. Like Witt, McGonigle has done it with across-the-board production, which doesn't stand out as much as Murakami's home run total. That, more than anything, might be what ultimately holds McGonigle back.
Biggest mover: Bazzana didn't debut until April 28 and didn't produce his first hit until May 2. Since then, he has displayed McGonigle-like strike zone domination with more power. At the rate Bazzana is becoming acclimated, he stands to be a key part of a six-player derby in a very strong AL rookie race. And he'd be one of three Guardians in that group, with DeLauter and Messick.
Keep an eye on: Messick has been one of the AL's top starting pitchers overall and the best among left-handers. Going back to last season, he's 9-2 with a 2.42 ERA and 169 ERA+ over 18 starts. He isn't as dominant as some, such as Schlittler, but Messick's four-seamer/changeup combo has been strong enough to allow him to flourish against righties and lefties alike. Messick might be overachieving a little so far, but then again, don't we always say the same thing about the Guardians?
National League
Front-runner: JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals (129.7 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Sal Stewart, Reds (110.9); 3. Konnor Griffin, Pittsburgh Pirates (110.7); 4. Foster Griffin, Washington Nationals (109.2); 5. TJ Rumfield, Rockies (107.8); 6. Nolan McLean, New York Mets (107.6); 7. Logan Henderson, Brewers (106.6); 8. Ryan Waldschmidt, Diamondbacks (105.7); 9. Bradgley Rodriguez, San Diego Padres (105.5); 10. Daniel Susac, San Francisco Giants (104.0)
Leader trend: Along with Walker, Wetherholt has been a linchpin behind the Cardinals' surprising campaign. Wetherholt's numbers should be even better: He strikes out at a rate below league average and has a line drive rate right at the mean, but his BABIP (.255) is low for a player with those markers. Wetherholt has hit for power, added value on the bases, posted outstanding defensive numbers and ranks seventh among NL hitters in win probability added. He is every bit as good as we were told he would be.
Biggest mover: Konnor Griffin began the season in the majors and started fairly slow. But the numbers have edged up, and he already looks like a player who has been a stalwart at shortstop for the Pirates for years. His 10.7-point jump in AXE during May is tops among NL rookies. Griffin's tools have stood out already, as illustrated by his 99th percentile ranking in sprint speed and 91st percentile rank in bat speed. His defensive numbers have room to grow and, most importantly, so do his swing decisions. And yet he already is up to third in this race. The kid doesn't look or play like a kid, and he appears to be a quick learner.
Keep an eye on: Let's highlight the other Griffin -- Foster, whose path to this leaderboard could not be more different than the cometlike trajectory of Konnor. It's not unusual for a player with rookie eligibility to have played in previous seasons, but Foster is 30 years old -- a full decade older than Konnor -- and his first taste of the majors was way back in 2020. After three years in Japan, Foster Griffin has returned as a fully formed big league starter. He has allowed 10 homers already, but overall, he has been one of the better stories of the young 2026 season.
Manager of the Year
American League
Front-runner: Kevin Cash, Rays (122.2 EARL)
Next four: 2. Will Venable, White Sox (115.2); 3. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (110.8); 4. Mark Kotsay, Athletics (106.2); 5. Aaron Boone, Yankees (98.9)
Overview: Cash is a virtual fixture on this leaderboard and, as usual, his consistent excellence might be overshadowed by narrative. In this case, Venable has to be seen as the true front-runner simply because his White Sox were projected to be one of baseball's five worst teams. Still, given the Rays' tepid forecast and current status as the AL's best team, that's a pretty good narrative too. If Cash were to win, he'd become 10th manager to earn the award at least three times.
By the way, Yankees fans, if you're disappointed by your club right now and wondering how Boone landed at No. 5 on this leaderboard, go through the AL standings and count the teams that are having bad seasons or at least much worse than expected. Boone's EARL figure (98.9) is below MLB average, but that's this year's AL for you.
National League
Front-runner: Craig Stammen, Padres (112.0 EARL)
Next four: 2. Oliver Marmol, Cardinals (110.8); 3. Terry Francona, Reds (110.2); 4. Blake Butera, Nationals (108.5); 5. Pat Murphy, Brewers (105.2)
Overview: It's a tight grouping so far, but the markers really like Stammen, the former (and recent) MLB reliever who was a surprising offseason pick to lead the Padres. San Diego was expected to be a playoff contender, so Stammen gets credit for meeting that expectation, but not as much as Marmol, whose Cardinals have overachieved. However, San Diego is 15-6 in games decided by one or two runs, and no NL team is on track to outperform its run differential by a larger margin. EARL likes these things.
