The 2026 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is just around the corner -- and the field is starting to take shape.
Tampa Bay Rays phenom Junior Caminero became the first player to commit to this year's event, which will be held at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on July 13. He was followed by New York Yankees slugger Ben Rice.
As the entrants are announced, we break down their chances at taking home this year's Derby prize.
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Junior Caminero, Tampa Bay Rays
2026 home runs: 26 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: Is there anyone hotter in baseball than the Rays slugger right now? The reigning AL player of the week and month has turned the past couple of weeks into his own personal home run derby, including a streak of six straight games with a long ball. If swinging a hot bat isn't reason enough, Caminero owns the average fastest bat speed in the majors (80.0 mph) and also finished second in the event last year, so we already know his powerful bat translates to the Derby stage.
Why he might not: Youth? Despite that runner-up finish as a 22-year-old last summer, no player as young as Caminero is now has ever won the Derby. In fact, if Caminero is the last slugger standing in Philly, he would be 257 days younger than a 23-year-old Juan Gonzalez.
Ben Rice, New York Yankees
2026 home runs: 25 | Longest home run: 433
Why he could win: Rice has been one of the true breakout power stars of the past year-plus, belting 51 home runs since the start of the 2025 season and nearly matching his career high set last season in just 315 2026 at-bats. His average exit velocity (91.8 mph) is in the 87th percentile and his barrel rate (14.7%) is in the 89th, so Rice is capable of hitting the ball hard and doing so often -- a great recipe for Derby success. As for any fear of this being his first Home Run Derby being a negative? The past two Derby champions -- Cal Raleigh and Teoscar Hernandez -- were competing in the event for the first time.
Why he might not: Despite his breakout production, Rice still has some swing-and-miss issues in his game. He has struck out 86 times in 85 games this season and has a 24.9% whiff rate. Winning the Home Run Derby is about stringing together multiple rounds of consistent home runs, and getting out of a rhythm can spell doom for any slugger.
