Nobody knows what MLB free agency will look like this winter. With a lockout expected less than a month after the market opens and the league intent on securing a salary cap system, team owners very easily could plead patience -- instead of wading into the free agent pool -- and wait until a new collective bargaining agreement is in place to start maneuvering.
At the very least, three of the top free agents -- Teruaki Sato, Kaima Taira and Hiromi Itoh -- will get locked up before the basic agreement expires Dec. 1. The Nippon Professional Baseball stars are expected to be posted in early November, sources told ESPN. Players coming from Japan have 45 days to sign when their posting windows open, and signing early would allow the trio to avoid sitting around and waiting for a potentially extended lockout to end while the NPB season roars on.
Outside of that, it's anyone's best guess as to how owners handle the free market. In the days leading up to the last lockout after the 2021 season, there was a flurry of big-money deals, including Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to Texas for $500 million combined; Javier Baez to Detroit for $140 million; Max Scherzer to the New York Mets for $130 million; Robbie Ray to Seattle for $115 million; and Kevin Gausman to Toronto for $110 million.
Unlike last time, however, the owners today are seeking a system that would fundamentally change the game and its salaries. And without a sense of how previously signed contracts would work in a capped system, the reticence might be strong.
And the curiosity about the when of it all will be particularly trained on one person. This is the Tarik Skubal class. Rare is the free agency period in which one player is so clearly head and shoulders above the rest. Skubal is expected to shatter the record for a pitching contract, currently held by Yoshinobu Yamamoto at $325 million. The size of Skubal's bag is one of 10 questions we've got that will give a sense of what this winter -- and the spring or perhaps even next summer -- will look like when it comes to MLB free agency.
1. How much will Tarik Skubal get?
Skubal shook off an early-season health scare that needed cutting-edge NanoScope surgery to mitigate time missed. Since returning, he has been quietly excellent, with a 7-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 2.93 ERA. The stuff is still elite. Everything looks right. He is that guy.
The number will be huge. Bear in mind that Skubal turns 30 in November and never before has a pitcher age 30 or older received more than Stephen Strasburg's $245 million (on a seven-year deal) in free agency. Provided there is no salary cap, Skubal could get double that.
A deal of that magnitude would presumably be for at least a decade -- the sort of commitment teams might balk at because of his age. But someone is going to pay an exorbitant amount for his services. And he is going to be at the heart of the salary cap debate all the while, because barely a handful of teams are interested in paying $50 million a year for 33 starts.
Those that are will be in the mix for a two-time Cy Young Award winner whose fastball sits at 97 from the left side. His changeup is one of the best pitches in baseball, his slider not far beyond, and his control of all his pitches is impeccable. Skubal is what a starting pitcher is supposed to look like. And he's the salvation of this class.
2. So how bad is it beyond Skubal?
Pretty bad! Any class with a player of Skubal's caliber almost by default avoids total-dud status, but the talent beyond him is not exactly overwhelming.
There's one 30-homer hitter in the class, Brandon Lowe. In July he turned 32, the same age as two of the other best MLB free agent bats, Randy Arozarena and Seiya Suzuki.
The best on-base percentage belongs to Jake Bauers, a soon-to-be 31-year-old who has spent enough time in the big leagues to be a free agent but never before this season played full-time.
There are three closers. Raisel Iglesias will be 37. Aroldis Chapman turns 39 before spring training.
And perhaps the most damning fact of all: The fourth-hardest-throwing starter, behind Skubal, Dustin May and Taira, is Freddy Peralta at an average of 94.3 mph.
3. Who's the best bat?
He's a potential Triple Crown winner. An MVP winner last season poised to capture the award again this season. And most people have never heard of him.
Teruaki Sato is a 27-year-old third baseman, and if the Hanshin Tigers post him as expected, he could become the first reigning position-playing NPB MVP to join MLB since Hideki Matsui in 2003. At 6-foot-1 and 210 pounds, the left-handed-hitting Sato is slashing .320/.398/.636 with 35 home runs and 92 RBIs in 122 games in an offense-starved Nippon Professional Baseball. Not only are his traditional Triple Crown numbers leading the Central League, so are all three of those slash numbers.
Sato needs to go through the posting system because he has yet to play the nine seasons necessary for international free agency. And he also needs to get teams to see past the questions about his strikeout totals (135 in 520 plate appearances this year) and ultimate position (third or corner outfield are preferred, some teams see him at first base).
Does that sound familiar? This is not to suggest Sato is Munetaka Murakami. He's not nearly the three true outcomes merchant, he's got a better chance to avoid first base defensively and he has been more consistent in recent years. (Last year's MVP-winning campaign: .277/.345/.579 with 40 home runs and 102 RBIs.) But he's a big-strikeout, big-slug, defensive question mark. And seeing how many teams regret not more aggressively pursuing Murakami after his huge first season with the Chicago White Sox, Sato can only benefit.
4. Are the other bats really that grim?
Yeah, they kind of are.
Bo Bichette would join Sato at the top of the list if he chooses to opt out of the final two years of his Mets contract. (More on him later.) Arozarena and Suzuki are both very good players, but neither is the sort that typically headlines a free agent class. Both might fall short of nine-figure deals. Lowe might not get one, either.
Perhaps the most recognizable names in the class, infielders Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Luis Arraez, aren't shoo-ins for big-money, long-term deals, either.
Bauers actually leads the entire National League in on-base percentage and is slugging nearly .500 for Milwaukee. At 31, Bauers will be among the most interesting free agent cases of the winter.
The rest is ... fine. Ian Happ consistently puts up numbers. Ryan Jeffers can add middle-of-the-order power. Daulton Varsho plays center field well and hits home runs. Trent Grisham plays center and hits home runs. Ty France, Gleyber Torres, Alec Bohm and Joc Pederson all do at least one thing well. Mauricio Dubon, Carson Kelly, J.P. Crawford and Tyler Stephenson are no one's idea of stars -- and that they're even on this list says everything you need to know about this class.
5. How will the industry value Chisholm and Arraez?
Both entered the season as polarizing figures, and little has changed.
Perhaps after consistently being the same productive hitter, Arraez should find himself a worthy market. But even at the trade deadline, teams were almost giving reasons not to acquire him. The Phillies might be his ultimate landing spot, especially if others convince themselves they don't need a consistent .300 hitter with the lowest strikeout rate in baseball.
Chisholm is different. He has the tools to be the class's best bat. He has 19 home runs and 40 stolen bases. But his OPS remains below average and he is among the game's top dozen strikeout victims. Even so, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Chisholm gets a bag, because he'll still be only 29 entering the 2027 season and in a class of such mediocrity, his potential is particularly tantalizing.
6. Is a Japanese ace the best non-Skubal starter?
There is no current major league starting pitcher built like Kaima Taira. At 5-foot-8 and 220 pounds, the soon-to-be-27-year-old right-hander is two inches shorter than any MLB starter this season and forged in the shape of a fire hydrant. He looks like a reliever -- Rico Garcia, to be specific -- and that's fitting, because for most of his career, Taira has been one.
Which is what makes it so odd to hear the effusive praise from evaluators who have seen him dominate for the Seibu Lions this season. They're conditioned not to like him. He's too short. He's too rectangular. What they also found is that he's too good to ignore.
Taira throws eight pitches: a four-seamer, cutter, changeup, sweeper, slider, splitter, two-seamer and a rarely deployed curveball. In the seventh inning of one recent start, his fastball registered 100 mph on a radar gun, and his 95.6 mph average is the hardest in NPB this year. It's premium stuff, and even if the strikeout rates don't reflect that, Taira has gathered a legion of admirers this season. Putting up a 1.45 ERA over 124 innings while allowing just 85 hits and only three homers tends to do that.
He was a reliever for the first five years of his career, transitioned to starting for a season, relieved two more years and returned to the rotation this season. Some teams still fear he's a reliever. Others see him as an absolute starter, though, and potentially an excellent once. And while he does have competition to be the best starter available not named Tarik Skubal, Taira should have an ample market.
He will also have some short-king company. Right-hander Hiromi Itoh, one of the best starters in Japan since his 2021 debut, is expected to be posted as well, sources told ESPN. While the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters have yet to suggest publicly that the 5-foot-9 Itoh will be posted, teams are preparing for his arrival.
Itoh's four-seam fastball is down about a tick this year, sitting at 92 mph. Like Taira, he throws a wide variety of pitches, leaning heavily on a slider and splitter while also offering a cutter, curve, changeup and two-seamer. What's undeniable is the 29-year-old Itoh's capacity to gobble innings. He threw nearly 200 in 2025, and this year he's already over 150 for the fifth consecutive season.
7. Which starting pitchers are going to get paid?
Skubal, Taira, Itoh, Michael King, Sonny Gray, Nick Martinez, Clay Holmes and Michael Soroka -- the latter five all with option decisions ahead -- are at the top of a starting pitching group that is the clear strength of this market. Here are eight other starters to monitor, with a range of outcomes all over the place:
Kevin Gausman, RHP, Cubs: The most-valuable pitcher this decade? Zack Wheeler. No. 2? Gausman. He'll be 36 in January, so while Gausman won't be getting too long a deal, he'll have plenty of suitors.
Casey Mize, RHP, Padres: After a mess of a seven-start stretch with the Padres, Mize needs to show he's healthy and good. The schedule doesn't give him much more time.
Trevor Rogers, LHP, Orioles: He dominates with a fastball that shouldn't, sparingly walks hitters and keeps the ball in the park. Oh, and he'll be just 29. That's plenty to interest teams willing to pay for a midrotation starter.
Robbie Ray, LHP, Padres: The former Cy Young winner has been sneaky good this year, allowing two or fewer earned runs in 18 of his 28 starts. Ray's strikeout rate has cratered this year, and teams will be wary of that combined with a walk rate that remains high.
Foster Griffin, LHP, Guardians: Though his fielding independent pitching (FIP) was screaming that regression was in order, Griffin still has been a perfectly solid midrotation starter who should get multiple years in free agency.
Freddy Peralta, RHP, Rays: Peralta has pitched better recently, and if he can continue this recent stretch (18 innings, two runs) through the remainder of the regular season and into October, he could salvage a free agency that right now looks more likely to net a one-year make-good deal than a nine-figure bonanza.
Shota Imanaga, LHP, Cubs: A perfect modern midrotation type. But because his fastball needs to be around 92 mph to really play, teams aren't likely to devote significant long-term capital when the raw stuff isn't anything special.
Shane Bieber, RHP, Blue Jays: Another former Cy Young winner has started just 11 games this year in an injury-pocked campaign. Still just 31, Bieber will get a one-year make-good deal in an effort to land that long-term deal that to this point has eluded him.
8. How good are the relief pitchers?
Kinda like the rest of the class. There are some bright lights. But mostly it's flickering bulbs. Here are a half-dozen relievers set to draw varying degrees of interest.
Adrian Morejon, LHP, Padres: You wouldn't think a setup man would top the list. At just 28 on Opening Day, with a terrifying mix of stuff, Morejon should get the biggest relief deal this winter.
David Bednar, RHP, Yankees: Occasional blowup aside, Bednar brings a solid three-pitch mix, strikes guys out, doesn't walk many and limits home runs. Or: More or less exactly what you want from a closer.
Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Red Sox: He'll turn 39 during the offseason -- and he certainly doesn't look like it. Chapman just keeps tacking on numbers to a career he hopes can end in the Hall of Fame.
Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Braves: The 36-year-old has been as solid a reliever as any over the last dozen years and was finally rewarded with his first All-Star appearance this season.
Jonathan Loaisiga, RHP, Diamondbacks: Finally healthy, Loaisiga is putting up good traditional numbers. What should benefit him even more are the pitch-modeling numbers that grade as elite, and it's the sort of stuff that should get the soon-to-be 32-year-old a multiyear deal.
Sean Newcomb, LHP, White Sox: He eats innings and doesn't allow home runs -- 81â…” and two, respectively, this season -- and that combination of qualities will give him an ample market.
Other top relievers: Right-handers Bryan Abreu, Paul Blackburn, Taylor Clarke, Kevin Ginkel and Jakob Junis. Left-handers Kris Bubic, Brock Burke, A.J. Minter, Steven Okert, Brooks Raley, JoJo Romero, Gregory Soto and Alex Vesia.
9. Who will choose to join this free agent class?
Here are 11 players with opt-out clauses or player options who must make a decision within five days of the end of the World Series and the early lean on their choices:
Bo Bichette, Mets, 3B: The trickiest decision in the free agent class. The Mets owe Bichette $84 million over the next two years. If he opts out, he will get a $5 million buyout and hit free agency again going into his age-29 season hopeful that the mediocrity of the rest of the class makes him stand out in ways he didn't last winter.
If he chooses to stick with his salary of $42 million a year -- by every measure a top-five salary in the sport -- no one could blame him, particularly with an early slump dragging down his seasonlong numbers.
Will he opt out: Yes -- but it's genuinely a coin flip.
Michael King, Padres, RHP: The 31-year-old King is the other candidate along with Taira to stand first in line behind Skubal, and it makes sense for him to forgo the final two years and $58 million on his deal -- particularly with the $5 million buyout he'd cash in.
Will he opt out: Yes
Corbin Burnes, Diamondbacks, RHP: Burnes returned from Tommy John surgery that had sidelined him for 15 months and threw three scoreless innings Tuesday. He could go the rest of the year without giving up a run and still not opt out of the four years and $140 million left on his deal.
Will he opt out: No
Jose Berrios, Blue Jays, RHP: Berrios underwent Tommy John surgery in May and will not be going anywhere with two years and $48 million left on his deal.
Will he opt out: No
Tatsuya Imai, Astros, RHP: Since getting demoted to the bullpen at the end of July, Imai has pitched four times. He's not going to do better than the two years and $36 million Houston owes him.
Will he opt-out: No
Yuki Matsui, Padres, LHP: The shortest pitcher in the majors -- like Taira, he's 5-foot-8 -- has been one of the best relievers by ERA. He could remain with the Padres at $13.5 million for the next two seasons or join a decent pack of left-handed relievers. This one's a coin flip, with the general uncertainty of the winter tilting it ever so slightly to him staying.
Will he opt out: No
Luis Severino, A's, RHP: He suffered a season-ending shoulder injury and will not be passing up one year at $22 million anytime soon.
Will he decline his player option: No
Ryan Helsley, Orioles, RHP: Like Berrios and Severino, he's hurt and would not find a $14 million salary in free agency anywhere other than with Baltimore.
Will he decline his player option: No
Clay Holmes, Cubs, RHP: At $12 million, this is an easy one. Even after the shelling Miami put on him in his last start, Holmes is in line to get a strong multiyear contract in free agency.
Will he decline his player option: Yes
Emilio Pagan, Reds, RHP: Pagan has been perfectly fine in his role as Cincinnati's closer, and because it's unlikely anyone would offer the $10 million the Reds are set to pay him, staying makes sense. If he does opt out, it's because the right-handed relief market is so thin.
Will he decline his player option: No
Wandy Peralta, Padres, LHP: Peralta falls into a similar category as Pagan: While he has been good for San Diego, the player-option price of $4.45 million also might hit that sweet spot to keep him around.
Will he decline his player option: No
10. What about the players with other options?
Teams love club options. It gives them the ultimate flexibility. If a player is outperforming his contract, he's a bargain. And if not -- as this year shows, you can wipe away a bad deal for the low, low price of a buyout.
Likely to be picked up by the team
Sandy Alcantara, Marlins, $21 million
Drew Rasmussen, Rays, $20 million
Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves, $17 million
Nick Pivetta, Padres, $14 million
Yandy Diaz, Rays, $13 million
Garrett Whitlock, Red Sox, $8.25 million
Andres Munoz, Mariners, $8 million
Ozzie Albies, Braves, $7 million
Jacob Webb, Cubs, $2.5 million
Kyle Hurt, Padres, $2.5 million
Borderline
Drew Anderson, Tigers, $10 million (no buyout)
Myles Straw, Blue Jays, $8 million ($1.75 million buyout)
Colin Rea, Cubs, $7.5 million ($1 million buyout)
Unlikely to be picked up
Luis Robert Jr. Orioles, $20 million ($2 million buyout)
Jeff McNeil, A's, $15.75 million ($2 million buyout)
Jeffrey Springs, A's, $15 million ($750,000 buyout)
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Diamondbacks, $14 million ($5 million buyout)
Antonio Senzatela, Brewers, $14 million (no buyout)
Carlos Estevez, Royals, $13 million ($2 million buyout)
Kenley Jansen, Tigers, $12 million ($2 million buyout)
Emmanuel Clase, Guardians, $10 million ($2 million buyout)
Victor Robles, Mariners, $9 million ($500,000 buyout)
Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles, $7.5 million (no buyout)
Trevor Stephan, Guardians, $7.25 million ($1.25 million buyout)
Ryne Stanek, Cardinals, $6 million ($1 million buyout)
Ryan Weiss, Astros, $5 million ($500,000 buyout)
Robert Stephenson, Angels, $2.5 million (no buyout)
All mutual options will be declined, resulting in some significant additions to the free agent classes, including: Sonny Gray, Nick Martinez, Dustin May, Joc Pederson and Michael Soroka.
Gray warrants extra mention for the gracefulness with which he has aged. He'll turn 37 in November -- and has more than earned a big-dollar, multiyear deal by going 17-4 with a 2.69 ERA for Boston. Among qualified starters, Gray's 91.7-mph fastball is the fourth slowest -- ahead of only three other free agents: Imanaga, Griffin and Brady Singer -- and hitters still can't touch him because of how expertly he mixes his six pitches.
Others on mutual options who will become free agents include Miguel Andujar, Shawn Armstrong, Josh Bell, Matthew Boyd, Griffin Canning, Zach Eflin, Lucas Giolito, Hunter Harvey, Austin Hays, Kyle Higashioka, Pierce Johnson, Carson Kelly, Cedric Mullins, Luis Rengifo, Gary Sanchez, Eugenio Suarez and Ramon Urias.
