The Milwaukee Brewers against the Tampa Bay Rays. The two No. 1 seeds in the 2026 MLB playoffs. Two franchises that have never won a World Series title.
It's time for Game 1 of the World Series, featuring a 103-win Brewers squad that just took down the two-time defending champs and a red-hot Rays club that proved itself the class of the American League -- and we're here to get you ready for all the action.
With the first pitch scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at American Family Field, it's time to break down the players and matchups that matter most for both teams. We also asked our ESPN MLB experts to make their picks for who will win the Series, how many games it will take and who will be the MVP of this Fall Classic.
Note: Bradford Doolittle's World Series probabilities come from a formula that uses power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes.
Jump to: Odds | Brewers | Rays | Predictions
World Series winner probabilities
Milwaukee Brewers
Chance of winning: 59.1% | DraftKings odds: -160
What's on the line for the Brewers: The first World Series title in franchise history -- after 57 seasons in Milwaukee. Completing the final step in the process that has seen the Brewers make the playoffs in eight of the past nine seasons and win the most games in the majors in the regular season in both 2025 and 2026.
Confirmation that they can win it all their way: Reasonably low payroll, mostly homegrown players, with speed and defense on the position-player side of things and power pitching up and down the entire staff. Affirmation that you can still win a World Series without having to sign expensive free agents. -- David Schoenfield
Three reasons Milwaukee can win:
The Brewers' bullpen is spectacular: Over 40â…” postseason innings, the Milwaukee relievers have a 1.33 ERA, allowing just 22 hits and 14 walks, with 38 strikeouts. Aaron Ashby is having one of the best postseason performances ever, with 12â…“ scoreless innings. And because the Brewers dominated the Dodgers and quickly closed the NLCS, this group will have a week of rest going into the World Series.
Milwaukee hitters typically generate strong, competitive at-bats, embodied by Jake Bauers' 12- and 11-pitch plate appearances in the NLCS. The Rays need length from their starting pitchers if they're going to win the World Series, and that will be a challenge in the face of the deep and talented Brewers lineup.
The Brewers defense is solid. The Rays may create more chaos than any team in the big leagues, especially when they're playing in Tropicana Field, in how they bunt, in how they run the bases, and because of the presence of Chandler Simpson. But Milwaukee is a good defensive team capable of playing clean games, and only one team surrendered fewer stolen bases than the Brewers during the regular season. William Contreras vs. Simpson is one of the more intriguing matchups in this series. -- Buster Olney
Where the Brewers are vulnerable: To beat the Brewers, you have to take advantage of their starting rotation. It begins with running up the pitch counts of their two front-line starters, Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson. The Dodgers actually did a good job of making those two work in Games 1 and 2 of the NLCS, getting them both out before the end of the fifth inning. The problem was they couldn't cash in on run-scoring opportunities.
The Brewers' starting options beyond Misiorowski and Henderson are relatively uninspiring, a list composed of Robert Gasser, Dustin May and Shane Drohan. Brewers manager Pat Murphy will want to rely more heavily on his bullpen in Games 3 and 4. If the Rays can tax those high-leverage arms early in this series, they'll be in good shape. Also, the more looks their hitters can get against the likes of Ashby, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill, the better off they'll be.
But make no mistake: scoring early will be a must for the Rays. -- Alden Gonzalez
How the Brewers can pitch Junior Caminero: There was an ongoing conversation in the last series that Caminero had trouble with high fastballs. That makes some sense since his swing plane is steeper than average in order to lift the ball when he puts it in play, so a flat fastball at the top of the zone doesn't intersect with his bat path; a sinker at the bottom of the zone would match his swing plane much better.
His regular season miss rates and damage heat map shows that his misses cluster well above the zone, clear chases, but he does plenty of damage just inside and just above the top of the strike zone and lots of damage if you miss below that spot in center-cut locations. So, you don't want to go to this well that often. A steady diet of breaking stuff off the plate low and away, then high fastballs above the zone when he starts to lean over the plate should work if he chases. If Caminero can lay off those pitches, then you're really in trouble. -- Kiley McDaniel
Jeff Passan's inside intel:
After a 103-win regular season and definitive sweep of the Dodgers in the NLCS, there is one bit of unanimity among all types of evaluators: They love watching the Milwaukee Brewers play baseball.
"They're just a damn good team," one analyst said.
"It's a 1980s team with 2020s sensibilities," a veteran scout said.
"I wish we played like them," said a GM.
The plaudits are earned. The Brewers' style is substantive. They do little things well, and they do big things well -- or at least well enough. They impose themselves.
"They are very talented pests," another scout said.
The Rays are changeup specialists, and the Brewers will be at their best if they can hit them better than Tampa Bay's other opponents. One thing that bodes well for Milwaukee: It had the lowest chase rate on out-of-zone changeups in the big leagues, which isn't altogether surprising since their chase rate on all pitches during the regular season was the lowest.
"I want to see what they do with changeups in the zone," one analyst said. "They're going to be hunting them."
Whether they get them is another question. Of the 315 changeups Rays pitchers have thrown, only 41% were in the strike zone. Aside from one player on one night -- Ben Rice in Game 2 of the division series -- nobody has gotten an extra-base hit on an in-zone Rays changeup, and opponents are hitting .192 against it. It's a real weapon, and the Brewers -- who are 7 for 21 with one homer on in-zone changeups this postseason -- need not fall prey to it.
The most bullish Brewers backers think they're going to have a 2018 Red Sox-like finish and plow through the Rays. When pressed for a weakness, they pointed to the Brewers' infield defense as a sneaky issue.
"They make more mistakes than the Rays," one scout said, pointing to the division series in which Milwaukee made five infield errors. He also noted that of their three NLCS errors, two were by starter Logan Henderson and none by an infielder.
Shortstop Cooper Pratt played a clean NLCS after a fielding error and a pair of throwing errors against the Padres. "He's still a rookie starting at shortstop for a team that's never won a World Series," the scout said.
Another evaluator saw a different potential opportunity for Tampa Bay on the left side of Milwaukee's infield.
"Their third basemen play so deep, I'd be interested in seeing what a few bunts would do," he said, noting the contrast with Rays third baseman Junior Caminero, who is regularly positioned well into the infield grass.
One matchup an analyst is excited to see: Brewers uber-reliever Aaron Ashby vs. Tampa Bay's Ryan Vilade. Ashby is the fireballing left-handed multi-inning throwback -- figuratively and as a descriptor of his high-slot arm swing. Vilade is the Rays' right-handed specialist to combat nasty lefties who will be strategically deployed by manager Kevin Cash.
"Vilade can hit hard sinkers," he said. "I want to know if he can hit an Aaron Ashby sinker."
Tampa Bay Rays
Chance of winning: 40.1% | DraftKings odds: +140
What's on the line for the Rays: In their 29th season in Tampa Bay, the first World Series title in franchise history. Completing the final step in a long run of success -- World Series appearances in 2008 and 2020, 10 90-win seasons since and 10 playoff appearances since 2008, the best record in the American League in 2026.
Confirmation that they can win their way: Low payroll, defense, speed, small ball, finding and developing players acquired from other organizations -- like Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Drew Rasmussen. Affirmation that you can still win a World Series without having to sign expensive free agents. -- Schoenfield
Three reasons Tampa Bay can win:
Constant pressure. The Rays led the majors in contact rate and posted the lowest strikeout rate during the regular season. They bunt more than everyone else and they swipe bags whenever possible. That fusion produces relentless pressure on their opposition. They force teams to play clean baseball, a test that the Yankees in the ALDS and the Guardians in the ALCS failed at crucial points in their respective series.
Nobody embodies their brand of baseball more than Chandler Simpson, who, despite never hitting a home in the majors, bats in the middle of Tampa Bay's lineup. Simpson was one of seven qualified batters in the majors to finish with a .300 batting average this season. Perhaps the fastest player in baseball, he is a constant threat to bunt for a hit and a demon on the basepaths. His game is wreaking havoc. That's Rays baseball.
Los Tres Pequeños. Most of the Rays' thump lies with their three best hitters: Junior Caminero, Yandy DÃaz, and Jonathan Aranda. The Rays ranked 22nd in the majors with 169 home runs during the regular season. Their big three -- or, as manager Kevin Cash jokingly calls them, Los Tres Pequeños, Spanish for The Three Little Ones -- combined for 86 of them.
Each contributed in a major way in the ALCS. DÃaz went 9-for-27 with two home runs, including a two-run shot in Game 6, with a 1.061 OPS. Aranda, after starting the series 0-for-11, collected five hits between Games 4 and 5. Caminero, the team's 23-year-old star third baseman, rebounded from earlier struggles with two hits in Game 6, including a crucial two-run homer that he celebrated with a 38.7-second trot around the bases.
The Rays can score in different ways, but slugging is the surest way to win in October. If their sluggers slug, they're tough to beat.
Starting pitching. The Rays have the best pitcher of the postseason (Drew Rasmussen), the ALCS MVP (Freddy Peralta), and an All-Star at the end of a career year (Nick Martinez) leading their starting rotation. Their four starters -- Griffin Jax is their No. 4 -- have combined for a 1.98 ERA in the playoffs, the best among the 12 participants.
Rasmussen has logged at least six innings in each of his three starts. Peralta has allowed two runs in his four outings, which includes a two-out relief appearance in Game 4 of the ALCS. Martinez allowed one run over 5â…“ innings in Game 4 before Peralta relieved him. The Rays will need length from their rotation, especially their top three, to avoid overexposing the bullpen and win this series. -- Jorge Castillo
Where the Rays are vulnerable: The only potential weakness on the Rays comes in the middle of their bullpen. Subtract closer Bryan Baker's seven scoreless innings and the rest of Tampa's bullpen has a 4.70 ERA this postseason.
If the Brewers can elevate pitch counts of the Rays' starters, they'll be able to get to the underbelly of that Rays pen. That bodes well in a best-of-seven series as it's harder to hide arms -- in fact seeing them multiple times will only benefit Milwaukee. -- Jesse Rogers
How the Rays can attack Jacob Misiorowski: As you probably guess, this is no easy task. With his fastball, Miz tends to pitch up and away from righties, and his breaking stuff is aimed low and away, for tunneling purposes. The damage against those two groups of pitches comes when they're in mistake locations: a breaking ball backs up, in the zone on the inner half or a fastball misses its spot, basically in that same spot. In two playoff starts, roughly 10% of his pitches went into this zone and a third of those were fouled off.
The game plan is to stay alive long enough so when he makes 5-10 pitches that are "mistakes" (remember: His stuff is still the best in baseball) you're swinging and not fouling it off. The bad news? The three pitches in that zone that were put in play in the playoffs were all groundouts to shortstop. -- Kiley McDaniel
Jeff Passan's inside intel:
The biggest vulnerability in the series is Tampa Bay against high-velocity fastballs. And nobody throws high-velocity fastballs like the Brewers. During the regular season, Milwaukee threw the most fastballs in the NL and third-most in MLB at 52.4%, with an average of four-seamer at 96 mph and sinker at 95.6. This postseason, they have upped their usage -- and significantly upped their velocity. The average Brewers four-seam fastball this postseason is 98.3 mph. The sinker is 97.1. Together, they comprise 56.2% of Milwaukee's pitches thrown this postseason.
During the regular season Tampa Bay had the 29th-ranked OPS against 98-mph-plus fastballs. "They're going to see a lot of fastballs, and they know it," one scout said. "Which is going to make the offspeed even more dangerous. They will chase." The hard stuff is coming in spades in Game 1 against Jacob Misiorowski, who has upped his usage from 63.3% to 67% and his velocity from 100.6 to 101 over 8â…“ innings.
One of the most interesting developments of this season, and particularly this postseason, are suggestions that the fastball's demise has, at least temporarily, reversed. Once more, velo is king.
Getting Junior Caminero's first postseason home run in the ALCS clincher was a good sign for the Rays. "They need to hit a few home runs," one scout said. "The Dodgers got beat because they got outhomered seven to one."
The Rays hit 15 more home runs than Milwaukee during the regular season, when the Brewers ranked 29th. They've turned up their power in big moments as they stomped through the NL playoffs. But Caminero is an ever-present threat, Yandy DÃaz has immense power and Jonathan Aranda can go deep.
"Victor Mesa Jr. is their one guy who can really catch up to fastballs," one scout said. "If he has a big series, that could be the thing they need to win it."
The evaluators bullish on the Rays all cite the same thing, summarized well by one scout.
"Their rotation is better, and they will kill you if you make mistakes."
With Drew Rasmussen, Freddy Peralta, Griffin Jax and Nick Martinez, the Rays offer a variety of looks, arm angles, arsenals. The only thing all of them do similarly is throw changeups 25% or so of the time. They're all capable of pitching deep into games and allowing the Rays to use only their most reliable relievers.
The Rays feast on mistakes because they don't make many themselves. They went errorless in the ALCS and have committed just one all postseason. They have stolen a postseason-best 11 bases and haven't been caught.
"You have to play the game at their speed," one scout said. "They play fast but under control both on the bases and defensively."
One scout noted the decline in closer Bryan Baker's fastball this year. He was regularly sitting 97 mph-plus through the All-Star break. Since then, it has fluctuated, going as low as 92.5 and sparingly averaging 96. Baker pitched four times in the ALCS. The hardest fastball he threw was 95.2 mph. In Game 4, every heater was in the 92s. His two fastballs in the clincher were 92.3 and 93.3. Because Baker's changeup is so devastating, it might not matter. But the Brewers know. "They're going to sit changeup on Baker," the scout said, "until he shows the velocity again."
Our predictions
Milwaukee Brewers (12 votes)
Voters: Jorge Castillo, Tristan Cockcroft, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Eric Karabell, Tim Keown, Tim Kurkjian, Kiley McDaniel, Dan Mullen, Buster Olney, Jeff Passan, Jesse Rogers
In how many games? Seven games (7 votes), Six games (5 votes)
MVP: Jackson Chourio (3 votes), William Contreras (3 votes), Brice Turang (3 vote), Jacob Misiorowski (1 vote), Jake Bauers (1 vote), Garrett Mitchell (1 vote)
Tampa Bay Rays (3 votes)
Voters: Doug Glanville, Paul Hembekides, David Schoenfield
In how many games? Six games (2 votes), Seven games (1 vote)
MVP: Jonathan Aranda (1 vote), Yandy Diaz (1 vote), Drew Rasmussen (1 vote)
Explaining our picks
The Brewers were our consensus choice. Why did you pick Milwaukee?
As with the Dodgers' last year, when I had it roughly 60-40 in favor of L.A. -- similar to this year's probabilities that favor Milwaukee -- it's hard for me to pick against that strong of a projection.
At the same time, we know that even a seven-game series is far too small of a sample to ensure that the better team will win, so you do need to justify yourself with some matchup-specific observations. With this pairing, it's not hard for me to do that when picking the Brewers.
The teams are similar in big ways but different in the smaller things that add up to those big things and in a way that I ultimately think favors the Brewers. The Rays are good at everything, but the Brewers are as well, and everything Tampa Bay does well, Milwaukee is a little better. Except for bunting, that is, but as I wrote elsewhere, if the Rays are baseball's bunting juggernaut, the team right behind them is Milwaukee.
The rotation edge the Rays enjoyed over the Yankees and Guardians shouldn't be as acute in the World Series. We haven't seen the best of Jacob Misiorowski so far, and while he has been out of sorts with his command, I still think he has enough left to enjoy at least one signature outing. If it's Game 1, then that doesn't bode well for the Rays if they face him again, familiarity-related trends aside. If Misiorowski brings his A-game twice in the series, that's two Brewers wins, no matter who the Rays have starting.
The Brewers also know Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta well, as both pitched for Milwaukee. Call it a hunch, but I think this will give the Brewers an edge, whether it comes to picking up tells or whatever. Sure, Rasmussen and Peralta have been executing so well that it might not matter, but I don't see their run continuing at the same pace against Milwaukee.
Finally, the Milwaukee offense is just better by a good margin. These teams both have great outfield defenses but that may not show up much against the offenses with the two lowest average launch angles, according to TruMedia. But the Brewers' infield defense is as good as its outfield defense, while the Rays' infielders are less accomplished.
The Rays' pitching staff might not issue walks at the rate where the Brewers' lineup typically feasts, but Milwaukee can adjust to a more aggressive style and score with their combination of contact hitting, high BABIP and baserunning. Milwaukee also hits the ball harder more consistently and for more extra bases. I just see more pathways for the Brewers to score than for the Rays.
The Series is not a blowout, by any stretch. But I see the Brewers as the definitive favorite and I'm picking them to win in six. -- Doolittle
And why do you think the Rays will win it all?
The Brewers, coming off their sweep of the Dodgers in the NLCS, are understandably sizable favorites in this World Series, but the underdog Rays match up well in two key areas that could lead to an upset.
First, the Rays put the ball in play, posting the lowest strikeout rate in the majors in the regular season. Their two top hitters, Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz, both struck out below the league average rate, with Diaz fanning just 14.3% of the time, a top-25 mark among qualified hitters. Chandler Simpson was the second toughest hitter to whiff and Liam Hicks, who hasn't done much in the postseason but had an .801 OPS between the Marlins and Rays, was the seventh-toughest hitter to strike out.
Caminero did have some strikeout issues in the ALCS but got going in the final three games with three balls scorched at 106-plus mph plus a home run in Game 6. He'll need a big series but is equipped to handle Milwaukee's power staff: He had the sixth-highest OPS in the majors against pitches of 97-plus mph, hitting .339 with five home runs. The second highest OPS? Hicks.
Second, the Rays throw strikes, the perfect counterattack to the Brewers' patient approach on offense. The Rays' pitchers had the lowest walk rate in the regular season -- and the second-highest rate of first-pitch strikes. The Brewers have a very specific approach to their offensive strategy. With the bases empty, they're not trying to hit home runs -- they're trying to get on base and start the chaos. They had the lowest home run rate in the majors with the bases empty. With runners in scoring position, they still draw their walks, but they go for a little more power, improving their home run rate to 16th.
We saw this approach work against the Dodgers, as they drew 18 walks in four games and hit seven home runs (although six of their seven home runs were solo shots). But the Rays will present a different challenge. The first-pitch cat-and-mouse game will be fascinating. Will the Brewers' hitters continue to try to work the counts in their favor or get more aggressive if the Rays are pounding the zone?
One final reason to like the Rays: Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta are on a roll right now. Rasmussen allowed three runs in his three postseason starts while averaging seven innings per outing -- thus helping to limit the innings of the bullpen. Contrast that with Brewers ace Jacob Misiorowski, who couldn't get through five innings in either of his two playoff starts. Peralta, meanwhile, has allowed two runs in his three starts. Logan Henderson, Milwaukee's No. 2 starter, has also failed to pitch deeper into games.
The Brewers don't even have a No. 4 starter, going with a bullpen game in the fourth game of the NLCS. This bullpen-heavy approach worked out since that series was a sweep (indeed, Brewers relievers have been credited with all seven of their postseason wins), but the longer the World Series goes, the more likely that Milwaukee bullpen wears down and the advantage switches to the Rays. We saw how Rays hitters started doing more damage against a very good Cleveland bullpen later in that series -- Caminero, Diaz and Jonathan Aranda hit .385 with three home runs and 10 RBIs over the final three games.
Look for that to happen again -- and for the Rays to win the World Series. -- Schoenfield
