The UFC returns to Las Vegas on Saturday with a rematch for the flyweight title between champion Demetrious Johnson and John Dodson headlining UFC 191 from the MGM Grand Garden Arena.
As always, I break down the main event, including the co-main between former UFC heavyweight champions Frank Mir and Andrei Arlovski, and give my picks on the entire UFC card. Don't agree with my predictions? Let me know (nicely, of course) on Twitter: @bokamotoESPN.
Main event
Demetrious Johnson (22-2-1) vs. John Dodson (17-6) Flyweight championship rematch
Odds: Johnson -500; Dodson +400
One thing their first fight taught us: Dodson is capable of being Johnson's equal when he's fresh.
When their first meeting from January 2013 was fought at a distance, it was neck and neck, with Dodson's knockout power serving as the potential difference. When it was in close, either in the clinch or on the floor, it was a blowout in Johnson's favor. Early on, when Dodson had energy, he was explosive and mobile enough to keep that precious distance between himself and Johnson. As the fight went late, however, Dodson tired and Johnson's pressure slowly ate him alive, with Johnson going on to claim a victory by unanimous decision.
If Dodson could even somewhat match Johnson's work rate through 25 minutes, this would be one heck of a championship fight. The question of whether he's physically capable of doing that though is worth asking. Johnson is a machine. He threw nearly twice as many strikes as Dodson in their first fight, but appeared as if he could have went another five rounds at the end. He has gone five rounds with the cardio king himself, Dominick Cruz, who significantly outweighed him, and didn't gas. His weight management is down to a fine science, which includes Johnson weighing himself as often as three times per day. He's not gassing. Ever.
What that means is that Dodson's best opportunities will likely come early. I wouldn't completely count Dodson out in later rounds, but at the very least getting off to a good start is absolutely crucial, because the chances of Johnson running away in later rounds are high. It's important to remind ourselves in this fight (and many others) that Johnson can lose. No one is unbeatable. His eagerness to outwork every opponent opens doors for clean counter punching and no one in the division is a more perfect blend of speed, power and counter punching than Dodson to take advantage of that.
In an effort not to sugarcoat anything, Johnson is the better mixed martial artist of the two. That much is really non-debatable thus far in their careers. What Dodson represents, however, is perhaps the only 125-pound challenger who can match Johnson's speed and possesses enough power to knock him out with one shot. And while it's true he might never be able to match Johnson's endurance, there is a good shot he's coming into this rematch in better shape and more mentally prepared for a five-round fight than he was in the first.
The safe pick here is obviously Johnson, in a fight that is relatively similar to the first meeting. Even if Dodson comes in terrific shape and forces a five-round standup fight, Johnson would still be considered the favorite due to his versatility, pressure and technical prowess.
There is this nagging piece of me, though, that says, "Dodson will be a UFC champion before his career is over." And I guess if I believe that, there is no better time to predict it to happen than now. It seems the MMA world is collectively looking past this fight and into the monster winter schedule, and Dodson fits the description of someone who can disrupt that. Plus, he celebrated the birth of a child (his second) this week. The Hollywood script demands he win the title now and take it home to baby Delilah.
PREDICTION: Dodson via third-round knockout.
Co-main event
Frank Mir (18-9) vs. Andrei Arlovski (24-10) Heavyweights
Odds: Mir +135; Arlovski -155
What we have here are two highly intelligent, seasoned heavyweight veterans -- who very well might end up playing Rock'em Sock'em Robots.
Both are coming off wild first-round knockout wins. They each have good pocket presence and somewhat shaky defense. Mir, as much as we all know him as a submission whiz, has been credited with one takedown in his last six fights combined. That's one takedown since the start of 2012. That's not a lot.
If we are indeed looking at a standup fight here, there's things to like (and dislike) about both heavyweights. In terms of size, I tend to like the speed advantage Arlovski's 240-pound frame translates into. Mir will likely come in about 20 pounds heavier, which can be beneficial against certain opponents but probably not here. If Mir was going to commit to his grappling and try and force Arlovski to carry his weight around, then maybe weighing in at 265 would be a good move. But my guess is the fight doesn't play out that way.
Working in Mir's favor here is his ability to counter punch. These two have answered questions about their respective chins, but at the end of the day, if they get into some old-fashioned fisticuffs in the first round, this thing could get a little crazy -- and Mir is as calm as they come when the stuff hits the fan. His timing is absolutely phenomenal and one of the least-appreciated aspects of his game. He sees his target swinging at him, slips the punch and delivers that awkward, often-times looping left hand that puts guys down for good.
Arlovski is far less wild than Mir's last opponent, Todd Duffee, who resembled a bird in flight with some of the winging punches he threw. Arlovski loves the right hand and finishes virtually every combination he throws with it. He'll be the more mobile heavyweight in the cage on Saturday. Mir, although it appears he has turned back the clock this year in terms of his athleticism, doesn't move nearly as well as Arlovski. The battle within the battle will be Arlovski's feints and how Mir reacts to them. If Arlovski doesn't set up his blitzes well enough, Mir is fully capable of catching him coming in.
Of course, Mir has another potential way of winning this fight and that's on the ground -- but again, we go back to the lone takedown he has secured in the last three years. If this fight does go to the ground, it figures to do so in a nontraditional sense, as in Mir jumps on a submission after dropping Arlovski with a punch.
PREDICTION: A heavyweight fight that could easily turn into a first-round brawl? That usually makes for a coin-flip outcome. Arlovski by first-round KO -- although I'm not confident about this pick.
Rest of the main card
Anthony Johnson (19-5) vs. Jimi Manuwa (15-1), light heavyweights
The last time Manuwa stepped up in competition, it didn't go well. I expect a similar result here.
PREDICTION: Johnson by TKO.
Corey Anderson (5-1) vs. Jan Blachowicz (18-4), light heavyweights
Polish muay Thai will prevail here. I worry about the health and safety of Anderson's body, as well.
PREDICTION: Blachowicz by TKO.
Paige VanZant (5-1) vs. Alex Chambers (5-2), strawweights
The UFC is taking it slow with PVZ, which is smart. As an opponent, Chambers is well within VanZant's wheelhouse.
PREDICTION: VanZant by TKO.
