Following an unfortunate ankle injury to Matt Brown, Saturday's UFC Fight Night card in Monterrey, Mexico, will be headlined by a welterweight fight between Kelvin Gastelum and late replacement Neil Magny. The event takes place at Monterrey Arena.
For Magny, it's his second short-notice fight in a row. He picked up a win against Erick Silva on 17 days' notice back in August. Will it work out for him again? As always, if you don't agree with my predictions -- or perhaps you find them so insightful you'd wish to compliment my intelligence directly -- you can contact me on Twitter: @bokamotoESPN.
Main event
Neil Magny (16-4) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (11-1)
Welterweights
Odds: Gastelum -300; Magny +250
Magny knows he doesn't have to fight every other month, right?
There are certainly benefits to staying busy, but how much is too much? This will be Magny's 10th fight in 21 months. It's scheduled for five rounds and required international travel. Magny is a supremely conditioned welterweight, who trains at altitude and seems to thrive under these circumstances -- but still, these things add up.
He's also fighting a very good opponent who should be at his best. Gastelum, 24, is back at welterweight and working with one of the best nutritionists in the game in George Lockhart. He worked with renowned striking coach Rafael Cordeiro during this camp and you have to think he has been motivated in the day-to-day, given this opportunity to headline a Mexico card against Brown (now Magny).
Stylistically, both like a high pace. Gastelum is more willing to eat a shot to make that happen, though. While he's constantly trying to move forward and keep the center, Magny will rely more on lateral movement and doesn't mind being on the outside. That will be the case here. You might not see Gastelum take a single step backward. He hits harder than Mangy and will want to close the gap on that 80-inch reach.
While Gastelum hits hard, his most impressive punch might be his jab. It's quick, accurate and gives an opponent something to think about, which means they're distracted from Gastelum's many other tools. He throws high-volume, heavy leads and he's strong in the clinch. It's not easy to tie him up or hold him down.
Magny knows all of this, or at least he should. He was in the corner of Gastelum's last opponent, Nate Marquardt. He comes out of the same Denver-based gym where Brown was training for the fight when he got injured. Magny should know Gastelum pretty much inside and out, and there are some holes for him to get after. Gastelum will eat punches and he'll walk into a well-timed takedown.
And that last bit is probably Magny's best bet. Although he's better defensively than Gastelum on the feet and has the reach advantage, he's probably best off taking Gastelum down. Even though Magny is the one who is fighting on short notice, his cardio is typically such an advantage. If he can establish the wrestling early, he might actually like his chances late.
Prediction: Gastelum via third-round TKO.
