The UFC is still waiting for its first dominant heavyweight champion. For all we know, such a thing doesn't even exist.
Since the belt was created in 1997, no man has ever registered more than two consecutive title defenses. The division has seen a handful of repeat champs -- Randy Couture, Tim Sylvia, Cain Velasquez -- but it has been absent of any dominant, singular eras.
So, as impressive as current champion Fabricio Werdum has been, history is not on his side when it comes to predicting a long title reign. And with so many key matchups on the schedule (each of the top 10 heavyweights coming into last weekend had a fight booked), it's a good time to forecast the UFC's top big men.
The sailed ships: Antonio Silva, Roy Nelson, Frank Mir, Stefan Struve
Here's an unhappy stat: Mir has now been knocked out in eight total cage fights. There was also the motorcycle accident of 2004. He obviously came back from that and has enjoyed a successful career since, but that kind of physical damage has a way of staying with an athlete. Silva turned old overnight after a five-round draw with Mark Hunt in 2013 (plus the ban on TRT, which Silva needed for medical reasons). Nelson will always have a job, but he's not a contender. The sad name on this list is Struve. He's only 28, but hasn't looked the same since a heart condition threatened his career in 2013.
The definitely worth mentioning but not all that likelys: Derrick Lewis, Ruslan Magomedov
"Black Beast" fever is real. Lewis is one of the most entertaining guys in this division and he's worth the price of admission, but he has looked vulnerable (even in his wins) and the best competition he has faced (Matt Mitrione in 2014) knocked him out in 41 seconds. Magomedov probably has a higher ceiling than Lewis and he's two years younger. His lack of power could be costly though. Eight of his past nine wins have gone the distance. But if you start talking about elite competition in five-round fights? It doesn't add up for Magomedov.
The former champs: Josh Barnett, Andrei Arlovski, Junior dos Santos
They've each probably been referred to as "done" at one point or another. Arlovski was supposed to be cooked in 2011, after he suffered three knockout losses in a four-fight stretch. Barnett has aged gracefully, but he has been relatively inactive in the past two years. Dos Santos has to be considered the most dangerous of the three, but brutal five-rounders with Velasquez (twice) and Stipe Miocic have seriously accelerated his expiration date. This division is about as wide-open as they come, so any of these three could still pop up in a title fight -- but stars would have to align to see any of them reclaim UFC gold.
The completely unknown: Bilyal Makhov
A 28-year-old amateur wrestler out of Russia, with world championships in freestyle and Greco-Roman wrestling. He has had zero MMA bouts, but is signed to the UFC. His current focus is the 2016 Olympics, after which he says he's headed to the Octagon. It's impossible to know how he'll do, but file this name into your memory bank.
The late bloomer(?): Travis Browne
We blinked and Browne turned 33. That's not old by heavyweight standards (in fact, it's actually young), but it feels like only yesterday Browne was in his 20s, undefeated and a favorite to someday hold a UFC title. It hasn't materialized. He has struggled against the best of the best, including a rather non-competitive loss to Werdum two years ago. He has always had the look, athletically. If it doesn't translate soon though, it might never.
The "if he doesn't fight stipe miocic ever again": Mark Hunt
At age 41, Hunt is as much a force to be reckoned with as he has ever been. There is no one in the division you can count him out against, with the exception of Miocic, who is Hunt's kryptonite. With his technical, well-paced boxing, cardio and takedown ability, Miocic feels like a sure thing should he ever run up against Hunt again. They fought in May last year and we all needed a cold shower after watching it. Miocic beat Hunt up. But against anyone else? Hunt is a threat.
The comebacks: Alistair Overeem, Ben Rothwell
When it comes to revitalizing careers, most of the focus has gone toward guys like Arlovski and Mir. Meanwhile, Rothwell has forced us to take notice by stringing together four straight wins. He seems like a heavyweight most would choose to ignore, but he has made it impossible to do so. For Overeem, it has been the opposite. All of his performances are scrutinized and heavily critiqued. After looking very much like a bust between 2013 and 2014, he has won three in a row and seems to be firing on all cylinders. Strong camp, always oozing confidence. A title shot in 2016 is very, very possible.
The guy who was supposed to dominate the division ... and the guy who actually might: Cain Velasquez, Stipe Miocic
Maybe when he's healthy, not fighting at altitude and can finally get active ... maybe then Velasquez will be the dominant heavyweight force he has shown (at times) he can be. Those are too many maybes to hang your hat on and this latest injury, to his back, is a big one. Ask anyone around the game, the back is a scary place for an injury. If he's ever able to look 100 percent though, Velasquez could become a three-time heavyweight champion. In the meantime, Miocic is healthy and he has got a skill set that could conceivably translate to a lengthy winning streak. If he wins the title in May, who knows? Maybe he can do what we all once thought Velasquez would.
The (looming) elephant in the room: Jon Jones
Daniel Cormier in April. Anthony Johnson in November. Alexander Gustafsson in February. Heavyweight champion by summer 2017? That's looking well down the road, but it certainly seems possible for Jones, doesn't it?
