By every statistical marker, the Oklahoma City Thunder have played like a championship contender during the 2023-24 season. Oklahoma City's 30-13 record is tied for second-best in the NBA, while the Thunder's plus-7.9 point differential ranks third, behind the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers. No other team has outscored opponents by more than six points per game.
Yet while the Celtics (+300) and Sixers (+1200) are two of the top five teams in title odds at ESPN BET, Oklahoma City (+1800) lags in eighth behind a team that would be in the play-in tournament if the season ended today (the Los Angeles Lakers, +1500) and another that would not have home-court advantage (the Phoenix Suns, +1400).
Both the Suns and Lakers won a playoff series last season, and they have rosters loaded with proven postseason success. Meanwhile, the Thunder's play-in loss was their first postseason appearance since 2020, and three of their starters have never seen the playoffs.
Is the betting market right to favor the experience of the Suns and the Lakers over the Thunder's youth? Let's take a look at what history tells us about precocious teams like Oklahoma City -- and how this rising contender should approach the NBA's Feb. 8 trade deadline.
