The Cleveland Cavaliers have had the best offense in the Eastern Conference this season and have reminded their opponents of that fact during the playoffs by posting a playoff-best 117 points per 100 possessions. The engine powering the offense during the playoffs and regular season has been fueled by the interaction between LeBron James and Kevin Love.
The duo has teamed up on 387 pick-and-rolls this season, and LeBron as the ball handler has passed the ball on 72 percent of those chances -- which has led to 0.96 points per chance (the Cavaliers average 0.92 points per chance on pick-and-rolls). The duo also is incredibly effective in creating quality 3-point looks. Of all duos in the league that have created at least 100 3-point attempts, when LeBron passes to Love for a 3, they create shots with the league's third-highest average quantified shot quality, 57.7 percent, meaning that when LeBron finds Love behind the 3-point arc, given the movement and location of defenders plus location and type of shot, an average shooter would have an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 57.7 percent. But Love has performed much better than an average shooter on these shots, hitting them with an eFG% of 64.9 percent. That is Steph Curry territory.
The Cavaliers also have been the best team in the league in transition, scoring 1.44 points per transition chance. And that goes up to 1.55 points per chance when LeBron is involved in the transition possession. The Cavs run on only 13 of 100 possessions, 17th in the league, but when they do, they convert those chances into points better than any other team in the league.
However, the Cavs struggle offensively when they run a pick-and-roll with any screener besides Love or James. When either one is the screener, the Cavs average 0.96 points per chance, which on a team level would be second only to Golden State. With any other screener, Cleveland averages only 0.89 points per chance, which is merely an average offense -- tied with the Sacramento Kings and Utah Jazz.
Defensively, the Cavs have been slightly better than average. They limit opponents' second-chance points by capturing 77 percent of their opponents' missed shots -- fifth best in the league. They also have one of the top point guard defenders in the league in undrafted Matthew Dellavedova. Delly ranks fifth in the league among PGs defending drives, giving up only 0.85 points per chance -- a number that drops further when the ball handler tries to go left.
Cleveland's defense starts to break down, however, when opponents run the pick-and-roll. As a team, the Cavs rank 21st in the league, giving up 0.94 points per direct pick. The defense gets even worse when Kyrie Irving is guarding the ball handler. On those possessions, the Cavs are giving up 0.99 points per direct pick, which on a team level would qualify for the worst defense in the league, and ranks Irving 41st among point guards.
While the Cavaliers are unlikely to maintain the historically great shooting run they are enjoying in the playoffs, they should take advantage of a Toronto defense that hasn't excelled at protecting the 3-point line. The Raptors surrender an average number of 3-point attempts with an average shot quality, which means the Cavaliers can continue to launch 3s and, even if they hit them at only their expected rate, they would be an incredibly efficient offense.
The Cavaliers also should be able to take advantage of the matchup of Irving running the pick-and-roll when Kyle Lowry is guarding him. When Irving has Love as his screener they score 1.08 points per chance, and when Lowry is guarding the ball handler on a pick-and-roll, he is giving up 0.9 points per chance on average -- but against Irving, he is giving up 1.07 points per chance.
On the defensive end, the Cavaliers will have to find an answer for DeMar DeRozan, who has been the fourth-most efficient shooting guard on drives this season, scoring 0.86 points per drive. The Cavaliers' ready-made solution for DeRozan is Iman Shumpert, who has been outstanding in the few chances he has had to guard DeRozan, holding him to 0.6 points per drive.
Cleveland's defense has been highly susceptible, however, to Lowry driving to the paint. Lowry is averaging 1.57 points per drive, and no Cleveland defender has held him below 1.33 points per drive and an incredible 75 percent eFG% in the paint. No point guard has scored more efficiently in the paint on the Cavaliers than Lowry.
For LeBron to get to his sixth straight NBA Finals, the Cavs need to continue to launch 3s and look for opportunities to run while looking to keep Lowry out of the paint.
