Carmelo Anthony's sitting on a bench near the sideline shortly after the Knicks' final training camp practice. He's in a light-hearted mood, laughing and joking around with reporters.
Someone brings up the idea of him testing free agency again. Anthony smiles and simply says, "I'm here to stay." It was a short statement, but one that carries plenty of weight for the Knicks.
Anthony's commitment to the organization -- or perhaps lack thereof -- was a storyline for much of the offseason. Some theorized Anthony wanted to be traded after New York drafted Kristaps Porzingis, a player most viewed as a high-ceiling, long-term project. The assumption was Porzingis was farther from fulfilling his potential than in his rookie classmates.
Others believed Anthony wasn't happy with Phil Jackson's free-agent haul. But the Knicks' star has said repeatedly over the last two weeks that he's on board with Jackson's vision for the club. Sure, he could change his mind if the Knicks fail to build a winner. However, if taken at his word, it's fair to assume Anthony will be in New York for the foreseeable future.
He's 31 now, but what can the Knicks expect from Anthony over the next few seasons? How long can he remain an elite player?
The projections
The picture FiveThirtyEight paints for Anthony isn't pretty. Using plus-minus, they projected Anthony's production over the next seven seasons in the chart to the right.
Plus-minus is the number of points per 100 possessions a player contributed to his team. The statistic is relative to an average NBA player, who has a score of 0.0. Anthony's 2015-16 plus-minus projection is solid. He projects to plus-1.5, which is pretty consistent to his recent seasons (plus-2.3 in 2012-13 and plus-2.1 in 2014-15).
But looking forward to 2016-17, the third season of his five-year contract, FiveThirtyEight projects Anthony will be produce a plus/minus of plus-1.0. The next season, Anthony is line to produce plus-0.3, just barely over league average, which means bad news for the Knicks.
Just don't tell Anthony.
"Come on, you're counting me out already?" he said.
Indeed, Anthony rattled off all the reasons why he's going to remain elite well into his 30s. One of them was his recent knee surgery to repair a patella injury in his left knee.
"I think now, [taking] care of this really put me in position to perform at a high level for the next four or five years," he said.
Then there's his style of play. Anthony knows he doesn't rely on freakish athleticism to score, which is an advantage. "If I was a guy who kind of played above the rim and played at a fast pace and just running and jumping -- very athletic -- then I'd probably be sitting here singing a different tune," Anthony said. "I'm not a guy who's playing above the rim every play so it works in my favor."
Get plenty of rest
Another factor is the league-wide trend of resting players, particularly veterans. Anthony, a 13-year veteran, has logged the second-most regular season minutes among players in his 2003 draft class, behind only LeBron James.
Understanding that fact, the Knicks should be judicious with his playing time, including regular days off for starters. Based on recent comments from head coach Derek Fisher, that seems likely.
"Our job as an organization is to try and partner with our players in extending their careers. And not just extending them, but hopefully assisting them to be able to perform at their highest level for as long as completely possible." Derek Fisher
"Very few guys are playing big minutes around the league anymore," Fisher says. "It's a trend that has gone completely down from having guys playing 40 minutes, 39 minutes a night into the low 30s for a lot of franchise players."
Fisher adds that the Knicks, like most NBA teams, have programs in place to try to keep their players in peak physical condition over the course of the season and beyond.
"Our job as an organization is to try and partner with our players in extending their careers," Fisher said. "And not just extending them, but hopefully assisting them to be able to perform at their highest level for as long as completely possible."
That scenario would be optimal for both the Knicks and Anthony, who is owed $101 million over the final four seasons of his current contract. And how well he performs over that period will be critical for the Knicks.
Anthony, however, remains focused on the present. He wants to help the Knicks turn the page on their awful 2014-15 season and to remind the NBA that he's one of the league's elite scorers. Ultimately, he just wants to get back to being healthy and productive.
"The most important thing is being healthy," Anthony says. "When you're healthy, everything kind of falls into place."
